2025 Alabama Crimson Tide vs Auburn Tigers Opening Odds: Cover or Not?

It is so poetic that Alabama’s College Football hopes comes down to the Iron Bowl. The CFP rankings severely and unjustifiably punished the Crimson Tide for a two point defeat against the team that they deemed to be the nation’s eighth best team. A win over Auburn gets Bama into the SEC Championship Game and helps their resume for the Playoff. A victory would be great, but what Alabama really needs is a blowout victory.

For Auburn’s part, they live for the opportunity to ruin an Alabama season. Despite a disappointing season that saw them start the season 3-0, they lost five SEC games by a touchdown or less – plus the UGA game by the score of 20-10. Despite a record of 4-6, the Tigers outscore FBS opponents by an average of 23.9 to 20.4. In short, AU keeps games close.

Once again, the CFP Committee is full of mental misfits devoid of logic. They might need to see a big Alabama win in order to seed them more appropriately. That will be a tall order for the Tide. The two rivals play this year’s rendition of the Iron Bowl in Jordan-Hare Stadium and the HooDoo VooDoo of that place never fully took affect for 60 minutes this fall. The officials blew some big calls in favor of UGA game in that stadium back in October. Don’t expect the crimson and white to be handed any favors from the zebras. Auburn will be up for this game and the Tide needs to be as well.

This past summer, FanDuel released several preview line spreads. At the time, Alabama was a -5.5 favorite. Oddly enough, the new FanDuel opening odds still have Alabama being favored by 5.5 with an Over/Under of 48.5.

It took now-fired coach Hugh Freeze eight games to realize that quarterback Jackson Arnold was not getting the job done. Ashton Daniels was plugged in for the Arkansas game and gave the team a spark that willed them to a 9 point road win. Daniels has had some flashes in the next two games, but again the Tigers lost. However, the most recent game was a tight overtime defeat to a strong Vanderbilt squad in which Daniels really shined. With just two regular season games left and three game participations for the transfer quarterback, the decision was made for him to sit out Auburn’s game with Mercer in order to preserve with redshirt. Therefore, he is set up to play against Bama with bowl eligibility on the line.

.tg {border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:0;} .tg td{border-color:black;border-style:solid;border-width:1px;font-family:Arial, sans-serif;font-size:14px; overflow:hidden;padding:10px 5px;word-break:normal;} .tg th{border-color:black;border-style:solid;border-width:1px;font-family:Arial, sans-serif;font-size:14px; font-weight:normal;overflow:hidden;padding:10px 5px;word-break:normal;} .tg .tg-cly1{text-align:left;vertical-align:middle} .tg .tg-lboi{border-color:inherit;text-align:left;vertical-align:middle} .tg .tg-8tj6{border-color:inherit;color:#F00;text-align:left;vertical-align:middle} .tg .tg-wa9f{border-color:inherit;font-style:italic;text-align:left;vertical-align:middle} .tg .tg-gc4e{border-color:inherit;color:#F00;text-align:left;vertical-align:top} .tg .tg-3nn3{border-color:inherit;color:#F00;font-style:italic;text-align:left;vertical-align:top} .tg .tg-fapl{color:#F00;text-align:left;vertical-align:middle} .tg .tg-fymr{border-color:inherit;font-weight:bold;text-align:left;vertical-align:top} .tg .tg-g7sd{border-color:inherit;font-weight:bold;text-align:left;vertical-align:middle} .tg .tg-0rhr{border-color:inherit;color:#F00;font-style:italic;text-align:left;vertical-align:middle} .tg .tg-bxdl{color:#F00;text-align:left;vertical-align:top}

DATE

OPP

CLOSE

RESULT

ATS/OU

08/29/25

@Baylor

-1 / 56.5

Won 38-24

Won / Over

09/06/25

Ball State

-42.5 / 52.5

Won 42-3

Lost / Under

09/13/25

South Alabama

-26.5 / 56.5

Won 31-15

Lost / Under

09/20/25

@Oklahoma

+6.5 / 47.5

Lost 17-24

Lost / Under

09/27/25

@Texas A&M

+6.5 / 51.5

Lost 10-16

Won / Under

10/11/25

Georgia

+4.5 / 46.5

Lost 10-20

Lost / Under

10/18/25

Missouri

+1.5 / 43.5

Lost 17-23

Lost / Under

10/25/25

@Arkansas

+2.5 / 55.5

Won 33-24

Won / Over

11/01/25

Kentucky

-11.5 / 44.5

Lost 3-10

Lost / Under

11/08/25

@Vanderbilt

+6 / 46.5

Lost 38-45

Lost / Over

11/22/25

Mercer

-26.5* / 51.5

Won 62-17

Won / Over

*Most of the major sportsbooks did not have a line on Aub-Mercer. This spread came for alternate sources but was the most accepted.

From a betting standpoint, Auburn has gone under the spread seven times out of ten versus FBS. They have not been favored since the South Alabama game in Week 3. In addition, the Tigers have yet to cover or go OVER on the OVER/UNDER at home all season. The only spreads they have covered have all been on the road.

Since the season opening defeat to Florida State, the Crimson Tide seemed to have gotten better organized and were rolling for awhile. However, things have gotten a little sloppy on the offense the last few SEC games. The South Carolina game was looking pretty dire before the defense came up with a huge turnover. The LSU game was less than perfect on offense. And then came the self-inflicted Oklahoma loss. Even this past Saturday, the Tide O had no passing touchdowns and Ty Simpson had two interceptions, though the second one was a Hail Mary at the end of the first half. In some defense, it was a mostly vanilla offense.

.tg {border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:0;} .tg td{border-color:black;border-style:solid;border-width:1px;font-family:Arial, sans-serif;font-size:14px; overflow:hidden;padding:10px 5px;word-break:normal;} .tg th{border-color:black;border-style:solid;border-width:1px;font-family:Arial, sans-serif;font-size:14px; font-weight:normal;overflow:hidden;padding:10px 5px;word-break:normal;} .tg .tg-cly1{text-align:left;vertical-align:middle} .tg .tg-lboi{border-color:inherit;text-align:left;vertical-align:middle} .tg .tg-wa9f{border-color:inherit;font-style:italic;text-align:left;vertical-align:middle} .tg .tg-gc4e{border-color:inherit;color:#F00;text-align:left;vertical-align:top} .tg .tg-3nn3{border-color:inherit;color:#F00;font-style:italic;text-align:left;vertical-align:top} .tg .tg-fymr{border-color:inherit;font-weight:bold;text-align:left;vertical-align:top} .tg .tg-g7sd{border-color:inherit;font-weight:bold;text-align:left;vertical-align:middle} .tg .tg-bxdl{color:#F00;text-align:left;vertical-align:top}

DATE

OPP

CLOSE

RESULT

ATS/OU

08/30/25

@Florida State

-13.5 / 47.5

Lost 17-31

Lost / Over

09/06/25

Louisiana-Monroe

-34.5 / 49.5

Won 73-0

Won / Over

09/13/25

Wisconsin

-18.5 / 45.5

Won 38-14

Won / Over

09/27/25

@Georgia

+2.5 / 53.5

Won 24-21

Won / Under

10/04/25

Vanderbilt

-12.5 / 57.5

Won 30-14

Won / Under

10/11/25

@Missouri

-3 / 51.5

Won 27-24

Push / Under

10/18/25

Tennessee

-9.5 / 61.5

Won 37-20

Won / Under

10/25/25

@South Carolina

-12.5 / 47.5

Won 29-22

Lost / Over

11/08/25

LSU

-10 / 49.5

Won 20-9

Won / Under

11/15/25

Oklahoma

-6.5 / 46.5

Lost 21-23

Lost / Under

11/22/25

Eastern Illinois

-50.5* / 57.5

Won 56-0

Won / Under

*Most of the major sportsbooks did not have a line on Ala-EIU. This spread came for alternate sources but was the most accepted.

Alabama is 7-3-1 against the spread. The first non-cover was against FSU. The second was at Mizzou in which the Tide missed out on going over the 3 point spread by a single point. The South Carolina and Oklahoma games were the other two. On the road, the Crimson Tide straight up lost to the Seminoles. But then they won at Georgia where they were an underdog for the only time this season. At Mizzou was considered a push as far as the closing spread is concerned. The match against the Gamecocks was much closer than many people expected. In short, being on the road is a concern.

Despite all the gloom and doom about the offense, the defense is allowing 16.2 ppg, 10th best in FBS, behind only Oklahoma (13.7) in the SEC. Auburn is seventh in the conference at 20.1 ppg allowed. Bama scores 33.8 ppg versus 27.4 ppg for Auburn.

With an over/under of 5.5 and 48.5 point spread, the final score could look something like BAMA 27, AU 21. Does that sound about right? Check back for any spread or O/U changes.