The Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs meet in a colossal Thanksgiving Day game at AT&T Stadium with their seasons on the line.
Both are coming off stirring wins and need that to continue with the Cowboys making all the headlines for their remarkable comeback down from three TDs to beat the Philadelphia Eagles 24-21.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementBut onto Thanksgiving.
Dallas, at home, simply has to take advantage of a 6-5 Chiefs team that is a 3-point favorite but also one that could be a little weary after going to overtime against the Indianapolis Colts and then having to travel.
So, how do the 5-5-1 Cowboys get what would be a monumental win?
By doing these five things.
1 - Dallas Is Top-3? Good! Pressure Mahomes
We have seen one thing work consistently against the Chiefs to make Patrick Mahomes look human, and that's pressure.
In the Chiefs' last two losses, Mahomes has been sacked three times, and in four of their five losses, he's been sacked at least twice.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementSo, Dallas' defensive front - which is suddenly a top-three bunch in the NFL in pressure rate - can't allow Mahomes to sit in the pocket with time.
Do that ... and sit back in a zone, as coordinator Matt Eberflus sometimes favors, and Mahomes will obliterate a defense with his abundance of solid pass-catching weapons.
The Cowboys will rotate guys like James Houston and Javedeon Clowney to get after Mahomes. But Quinnen Williams, Kenny Clark, Osa Odighizuwa and Donovan Ezeiruaku? They'll need to play a lot of snaps, and play well during them.
2 - No 'shooting our own foot off'
To say that the Cowboys will need to play a mistake-free game to win might be a little melodramatic, but they've got to get close.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNo fumbles, interceptions, flags that extend drives, or anything detrimental to the team. This Chiefs outfit - as pedigreed as there is in the NFL - doesn't need any help beating you. Don't hand them extra possessions.
Dak Prescott said last week against Philly in the early going that the Cowboys didn't just shoot themselves in the foot ... "We damn near shot the whole foot off.''
This is a game where mistakes will be punished, so do your best not to make them.
3 - Beat the odds, take some risks, and win on third down
It's the money down, folks.
The Cowboys' defense is the worst third-down unit in football, allowing a conversion 49 percent of the time, and the Chiefs' defense is 23rd, allowing a conversion 41 percent of the time.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementDallas' offense is the sixth-best third-down team in football (42 percent conversion), and the Chiefs are 10th (42 percent).
Is there a statistical win in there somewhere?
When the Cowboys have a chance to extend a drive or get Mahomes off the field, they have to do it. There will come a time late in the fourth quarter when either the offense or defense has a chance to make a stand. Take it.
The best way to beat Mahomes is to keep him on the sidelines. That requires success on third down ... and it might require risk-taking on other downs, too ... including fourth downs.
4 - Offense as a whole, come to the Thanksgiving party
CeeDee Lamb George Pickens, Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, and Jake Ferguson, we're looking at you.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWell, actually, we're looking at Lamb ... and then pausing.
“We know the problem,’‘ CeeDee said, reflecting on his three-drop effort in the win over Philly. “I need to catch the (expletive) ball. ...
KC coordinator Steve Spagnuolo might try to take Pickens away after his recent exploits - “He’s not from this planet,’‘ Dak said of "GP'' - so it could be up to Dak's other weapons to help shoulder the load.
This is the exact game where having two No. 1 wideout weapons is an ideally great edge.
Williams and the run game have to establish themselves, yes. But the Chiefs have only given up over 74 yards on the ground once in the last month, so that will be a challenge.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAnd lastly, the offensive line, which will be without Tyler Guyton, has to give Dak time against the Chiefs' defensive front and Spagnuolo's exotic blitzes. Dak has only been sacked twice in his last two games. More of that, please.
If the Cowboys offense is to be firing on all cylinders, it has to be as a unit. No passengers.
And certainly - again CeeDee, the world is watching and waiting - no drops.
5 - Win the red zone battle
The Cowboys' offense ranks 11th for touchdowns when in the red zone (61 percent), and the Chiefs' 14th (59 percent), so both are roughly on the same level.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementBut in the last two weeks, the Chiefs have been horrible, going two of 10 in the red zone. Yuck.
Conversely, Dallas is six of 10 in the red zone over the past two weeks, so coach Brian Schottenheimer's team is faring far better. This trend needs to continue at AT&T Stadium.
Defensively, Dallas is 30th in red zone touchdowns allowed (69 percent), but the Chiefs are far more stout, ranking 10th (54 percent).
Both teams can move up and down the field, and this game might come down to who is more efficient in the red zone on both sides of the ball. ... in what could be a fireworks today in Arlington.
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