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By Alice GibbsShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberAmericans are increasingly concerned about the state of U.S. democracy, according to a new study by the SNF Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University and Public Agenda—which has also identified three distinct groups within the Republican Party.
Drawing on a national survey of 4,500 Americans, earlier polling and three focus groups with Republican participants, the study found that across parties, most Americans have concerns about U.S. democracy.
Of these, 84 percent said democracy is either in crisis or facing serious challenges, while only 11 percent said it is doing well.
...Three Distinct Republican Factions
According to the researchers, Republican party members can be divided into three groups: Trump-first Republicans, Constitution-first Republicans and Party-first Republicans.
Amid reports of a generational rift in the Republican party, researchers found significant differences in how each group views democratic norms, presidential power and the role of institutions.
Trump-first Republicans, who make up 29 percent of the GOP, support broad presidential authority, including bypassing Congress to achieve policy goals. A majority in this faction also supports allowing President Donald Trump to run for a third term.
Constitution-first Republicans, accounting for 34 percent, prioritize checks and balances, limited presidential power and a clear legislative role for Congress. Most voted for Trump, but oppose altering the Constitution to permit a third term.
The remaining 36 percent, labeled Party-first Republicans, are less engaged in political discussions and express uncertainty about the scope of presidential powers.
Scott Warren, one of the paper’s authors and a fellow at the SNF Agora Institute, told Newsweek that understanding these distinctions is essential to grasping the GOP’s internal dynamics.
“As part of a broader initiative the SNF Agora Institute is leading focused on a conservative agenda for democracy, we’re interested in different ways that the Republican electorate differs, especially as it pertains to adherence to democratic principles and norms," he said.
“Too often, the Republican electorate is seen as one monolith. This study demonstrates that there are many different types of Republicans and beliefs under the tent.
"We’ve found it useful to use these findings as a conversation starter as we meet with Republicans across the country."
Election Confidence and Broader Distrust
The study also found that just 18 percent of Republicans say they are confident Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 election, compared with 96 percent of Democrats and 56 percent of Independents.
Confidence levels vary significantly among the three GOP factions, with Trump-first Republicans expressing the least acceptance of the election results.
Constitution-first Republicans were more likely than other GOP factions to accept the election results, though their confidence still falls far below Democrats and Independents.
Beyond elections, 70 percent of Americans believe that politicians do not care about people like them. Focus group participants frequently cited distrust in mainstream media and dissatisfaction with the federal response to the COVID-19 pandemic as key drivers of declining confidence.
Media habits also diverge sharply: 46 percent of Americans use online sources for political information, 42 percent rely on traditional television and 36 percent turn to cable news. Democrats are more likely to watch public and broadcast media, Republicans tend to favor cable news and podcasts, while Independents rely more heavily on online sources.
Polarization Inside and Outside the GOP
“The high levels of affective polarization, particularly amongst partisans who believe the other party is evil, is alarmingly high and growing—and worth paying attention to,” Warren said.
He noted that similar divides are evident within the Republican electorate.
“The Republicans who believe that the president can ignore court rulings act quite differently than others—they have a much higher approval rating of President Trump, they consume news differently, they have higher levels of affective polarization,” he said.
“But they're also a minority of voters. Given the cleavages recently shown amongst the Republican electorate, this is important to pay attention to.”
Do you have a tip on a political science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about the different types of Republican? Let us know via [email protected].
Reference
Bryner, S., Winner, S., Mason, L., Silliman, R., & Warren, S. (2025). Understanding evolving Republican attitudes towards democracy. Public Agenda & Johns Hopkins University SNF Agora Institute.
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