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A narrow defeat is still a defeat and winning back the Senate will require Democrats fighting several uphill battles at once, writes John Bowden
Wednesday 03 December 2025 04:01 GMTComments
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Aftyn Behn’s projected loss in the special election to represent Tennessee’s 7th congressional district definitely provides Democrats with a reason to look forward with anticipation to the 2026 midterms.
It also represents a clear reminder that no outcome is certain.
Matt Van Epps’s victory means that Republicans will notch their majority in the House up by one seat — a seat they’d previously held until the surprise resignation of Rep. Mark Green in July, less than halfway through his term. Green opted for employment in the private sector over further service in Congress, where he was on his second term.
But the comparatively narrow margin in a district Donald Trump had won by 22 points in 2024 is a clear sign that the Democrats are in a relatively stronger position than the party was last year, when it suffered a down-ballot rattling thanks in part to a chaotic presidential ticket. Van Epps was leading his opponent by single digits when the race was called well after polls closed Tuesday evening.
Anything short of victory is still defeat and for some Democrats the results of Tuesday night will still be a bitter pill to swallow. Efforts were made by a few national Democratic figures including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one of the most-watched figures on the left ahead of 2028, to push Behn over the finish line, but Van Epps still won by a decisive margin.
open image in galleryProminent Democratic figures like Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and DNC chair Ken Martin tried unsuccessfully to push Aftyn Behn from ‘overperforming loser’ territory into the winner’s circle (REUTERS)The party’s boosters will tout Behn’s over-performance of Kamala Harris and Megan Barry, the Democrat who competed in the 7th district in 2024. But Democrats can’t just over-perform if they want to manifest a “blue wave” in 2026; they need to win convincingly.
In the Senate, that will mean winning tough races in states and netting four seats on top of protecting several vulnerable seats of their own. Two open seats in North Carolina and Ohio make for a strong springboard for the party, but winning the chamber will mean winning seats held by retiring Democratic Senators Gary Peters and Jeanne Shaheen while also picking off GOP seats. Republicans are still favored to hold a majority, albeit a smaller one, come 2027.
Democrats need to do much better than merely “over-performing” to fully reverse the damage caused by their own collapse. It very well may end up requiring the party to sustain the momentum it’s building now across multiple election cycles.
open image in galleryDemocratic Party leaders in Congress, Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer, are facing an increasingly dissatisfied base of voters (Getty Images)For many in the party in Washington, 2026 will be a year in which they decide whether their current leadership has what it takes to build that enthusiasm among voters, or whether a more energetic (meaning younger) approach is needed.
Progressives and centrists alike are now openly showing discontent centered around their party’s handling of the first year of Trump’s second term.
Numerous factors are at play here, including the sidelining of the party’s younger stars to satisfy members with seniority who covet key positions in the caucus and the strategy to confront the Trump administration’s mass firings and slashing of federal programs, which many members ridicule as wishy-washy and unconvincing. Several of the party’s top contenders in key Senate races such as Michigan, Maine, and Iowa have also publicly called for Chuck Schumer to step aside as Senate minority leader.
DNC officials quickly celebrated Behn’s over-performance on Tuesday evening, noting in a press release: “With tonight’s results, Democrats have now won or over-performed in 220 out of 248 key special elections this year — nearly 90%.”
The House still remains in Mike Johnson’s hands (for now), and the Senate in John Thune’s. For Aftyn Behn, losing by around nine points led to the same outcome as she would have faced had she lost by 20 points.
open image in galleryMike Johnson’s GOP House majority grew by one member on Tuesday night, but signs of trouble are clearly ahead for 2026 (Tom Brenner/Getty Images)There are still obvious reasons for Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, especially, to be optimistic on Tuesday. None of the Senate races Democrats need to win next year will take place on playing fields tilted quite as hard against them as Tennessee’s 7th district. Jeffries, in the House, is watching his prospects for becoming speaker rise by the day.
But taking back the upper chamber, the site of Democrats’ capitulation on the shutdown fight, will still require the party’s leaders to win several steeply uphill battles at once. It’s a feat they haven’t yet proven they can accomplish.
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Mark GreenDemocratsTennesseeRepublicansCongressSenateHouse of RepresentativesChuck SchumerMike JohnsonDonald TrumpJohn ThuneHakeem JeffriesJoin our commenting forum
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