Game Preview: Buffs close season on road against bowl-hopeful Kansas State

It’s finally almost over, Colorado fans.

The Buffs close their season out on the road Saturday at 10:00 a.m. MT, visiting Kansas State in a game the Wildcats need to win for bowl eligibility. The Buffs enter at 3-8 and are trying to avoid a winless road slate, while K-State sits 5-6 with the home crowd at Bill Snyder Family Stadium behind them and plenty on the line. Let’s break down the matchup and what to expect from both teams.

The Buffs

The headlines again revolve around injuries and the quarterback spot. It’s late November so injuries are expected, but the size of CU’s injured list has everyone wondering who is staying and who is eyeing the portal after Saturday.

Headed into the weekend, the Buffs have a laundry list of questionable players. Both starting tackles are there, most notably Jordan Seaton. A pair of edge rushers, Keaton Wade and Brandon Davis-Swain, are banged up. Wide receiver Joseph Williams is on the report, and safety Tawfiq Byard is the biggest defensive name listed. It’s fair to question how many of these players will push to play against K-State, especially given Colorado’s record. Omarion Miller and Ivan Yates are marked probable and both should go for CU. Kansas State’s report is shorter and mostly clear of their top contributors.

On offense, Colorado turns back to the senior under center. Kaidon Salter will start at quarterback, with Julian Lewis sitting to preserve his redshirt. Lewis showed enough to make everyone feel good about his production next year, but this week is about the vets. If the game allows, the staff could give a series or two to the depth behind Salter, like fan favorite Ryan Staub or fourth-string Dominiq Ponder.

The offensive key is simple against the Wildcats: get Salter going on the ground and let that open the passing menu. Colorado has looked best with designed keepers, read options, and movement throws that get Salter to the edge. Expect a steady mix of Dallan Hayden and Micah Welch from the backfield. With the season already decided and roster questions looming, do not be surprised if the staff takes the lid off and calls for a few deep shots early to chase chunk plays and wake the sideline up.

On defense, the Buffs are up against a tough battle with the injuries in the trenches and Byard’s status. The depth has battled and there has been some swagger the last two weeks, plus the takeaways finally showed back up against Arizona. The issue remains in stopping the run. Too many opponents have lived at five and six yards per carry against CU and the explosive runs seemingly just keep coming. If that doesn’t tighten up, that’s where things can get ugly for CU.

The Wildcats

Kansas State looks like a team that found some rhythm late. They hung 47 on a good Utah defense last week despite ultimately losing, and their profile has drifted back toward what they wanted to be headed into the season.

Quarterback Avery Johnson has settled in with 2,270 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and six interceptions on the year. His passing can be streaky, but he adds real value as a runner with 97 carries for 503 yards and eight touchdowns on the year as well. He is a problem on zone read, QB power and the scramble drill when coverage turns its back.

The backfield is anchored by Joe Jackson, who’s had a very productive season with 143 carries for 763 yards and five scores. He’s a patient, one-cut runner who hits creases and falls forward. With Dylan Edwards making the late decision to redshirt and forgo the rest of his junior season, Jackson has been the workhorse for this offense.

Outside, receiver Jayce Brown is the player you plan for. On the year, he has tallied 41 catches for 712 yards, and five touchdowns, so the Buffs should prepare for the obvious deep threat that Brown provides. Jaron Tibbs brings 43 catches for 540 yards as K-State’s chain mover and intermediate option. Tight end Garrett Oakley is the red zone piece, with six touchdowns and a steady catch rate. If Colorado sells out to stop the run, those three guys are the beneficiaries on play action and shot seams.

Defensively, Kansas State has been up and down. There are tackling concerns paired with low coverage grades that float in the low to mid 60s in several conference games. When the front wins with movement, they get off the field. When the rush is quiet, you can throw on the outside and work the seams. The path is there, if protection holds.

Prediction

Colorado has put good stuff on tape almost every week, but has let the game drift away in the middle quarters. With the season where it is and likely movement within the coaching staff ahead, it’s hard to bet on a sudden identity flip. The Buffs have enough talent to stay in this game, especially if Salter is efficient early and Omarion hits a big one, but the run defense against Kansas State’s ground game is the matchup that decides it.

I believe Colorado moves the ball well, along with Salter and the backs being able to create a few explosive plays. I predict the defense steals one possession as well. Ultimately, I think Kansas State’s run game wears on the front and the Wildcats finish drives with ease.

I will take the Buffs to barely cover the 17.5-point spead and the total to get past 50.5, with Kansas State closing it out in the fourth. If Colorado pops an early deep ball and nabs a takeaway, it gets interesting. The safer read is that the Wildcats lean on the run, play to their identity, and get to six wins while Colorado turns the page to the much awaited off-season.

Final Score

Colorado 23

Kansas State 37