NFL Week 13 Bet of the Week

FTN’s NFL Week 13 Bet of the Week is powered by our advanced model that simulates every game 10,000 times.

Find this week’s top edge, complete with true odds and expert analysis.

FTN’s NFL Bet of the Week: Saints +5.5

The model projects a strong performance for the Saints this week, giving them a 63.4% probability of covering the spread against the Dolphins as a 5.5-point underdog

The Dolphins may be riding a two-game win streak, but that doesn’t fully erase the nine-game stretch where they looked like one of the league’s worst teams. Outside of the Bills upset, Miami hasn’t beaten a quality opponent all season, and their overall profile still grades more poorly than the market suggests. New Orleans isn’t good either, but these teams are far more evenly matched on paper than a 5.5-point spread implies. Even after last week’s loss to Atlanta and another shaky outing from Tyler Shough, our model sees this matchup as much closer to a coin flip, making the points with the Saints a value spot, even if Saints fans might be more focused on 2026 draft dreams than the 2025 win column.

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Final Thoughts

NFL betting is about finding small edges that add up over the course of the season. FTN’s Bet of the Week is just one example of the actionable insights our model delivers. Lock in this week’s best bet, and check back every week for the next free NFL best play.