How Texas can still make College Football Playoff: 7 scenarios for Longhorns to climb CFP rankings originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Rivalry Week is here! For teams not set to play in a conference championship game, this weekend marks one of the last opportunities for teams to make a big impression on the College Football Playoff committee.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOne of those teams is Texas, which is 8-3 on the season. The Longhorns take on No. 3 Texas A&M at home on Friday evening. If Texas, listed as a 2.5-point home underdog, knocks off the Aggies, there is still a long-shot chance for the Longhorns in the 12-team playoff.
Texas would need a lot of help to do so, but with a win over undefeated Texas A&M, there's a slight chance for a playoff bid. It's important to note that Texas has to defeat the Aggies here, even if various teams in front of the Longhorns lose.
Let's run through the scenarios for Texas to make it into the playoffs, keeping in mind that the Longhorns have to beat Texas A&M in order for any of these to come to fruition.
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AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementTexas College Football Playoff rankings
Here are the current CFP rankings, the most recent ones released on Nov. 25.
Ohio State: 11-0
Indiana: 11-0
Texas A&M: 11-0
Georgia: 10-1
Texas Tech: 10-1
Oregon: 10-1
Ole Miss: 10-1
Oklahoma: 9-2
Notre Dame: 9-2
Alabama: 9-2
BYU: 10-1 (first team out)
Miami (Fla.): 9-2 (fourth-highest-ranked conference champion)
Utah: 9-2
Vanderbilt: 9-2
Michigan: 9-2
Texas: 8-3
USC: 8-3
Virginia: 9-2
Tennessee: 8-3
Arizona State: 8-3
SMU: 8-3
Pitt: 8-3
Georgia Tech: 9-2
Tulane: 9-2 (fifth-highest-ranked conference champion)
Arizona: 8-3
And here's a look at the current bracket. As you can see, Texas is not included in the 12-team field.
Obviously, checking in at 16th, the Longhorns are far from inside the 12-team field. But with just four teams in between Texas and the top-12, there is a long shot chance for the Longhorns.
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Can Texas make College Football Playoff?
According to ESPN's Playoff Predictor, the Longhorns have an 11% chance to make the CFP, even with a win over A&M. ESPN's FPI has it even lower, currently with just a 6.4% chance.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementBut if various teams in front of Texas — like Notre Dame, Alabama, Miami and Utah — all lose, the Longhorns' chances get slightly better. Let's take a look at which teams Texas should be rooting for this weekend to have a shot at a playoff bid.
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No. 9 Notre Dame losing to Stanford
If Notre Dame falls to a 4-7 Stanford team, that could start to open up the No. 10 seed, possibly for Texas. The Irish have two losses to Texas A&M and Miami already, and a third loss likely knocks Notre Dame out completely. The Irish don't play in a conference as an Independent, and have just two other wins over ranked opponents in USC and Pitt. Notre Dame is listed as a 31.5-point favorite.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNo. 10 Alabama losing to Auburn
Alabama losing to a 5-6 Auburn team would also help Texas. For starters, it would knock the Tide out of the SEC title game, which would prevent the Tide from earning an automatic bid. It would also open the door for Georgia or Ole Miss to play in that game instead.
It'd be hard to see the committee still put Alabama in with three losses to Florida State, Oklahoma and Auburn, with the Tigers and FSU sitting below .500.
No. 22 Pitt defeats No. 12 Miami
For whatever reason, the committee has continued to put Miami in the bracket as the No. 11 seed. That's despite the Hurricanes' difficult path to the ACC title game, needing to beat Pitt in addition to teams like SMU, Duke and Virginia to lose.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWhile the No. 11 spot will likely go to the eventual ACC Champion, Miami losing could slot the Longhorns in ahead of Championship Saturday. Miami is a 7-point favorite.
No. 19 Tennessee beats No. 14 Vanderbilt
Neither of these two teams are in the SEC title game or playoff hunt. But Vanderbilt, which lost 34-31 to Texas earlier in the season, is ranked ahead of the Longhorns heading into Week 13. Vanderbilt losing would move Texas up at least a spot or two in the rankings. Vanderbilt is a 3-point road underdog.
No. 7 Ole Miss loses to Mississippi State
Ole Miss' Egg Bowl vs. Mississippi State is highly anticipated for several reasons. The biggest being the fate of Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin, who is expected to announce his future Saturday a day after the game. But if Ole Miss defeats the Bulldogs, it keeps the Rebels in the hunt for an SEC title game berth for the first time in school history.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementA loss for Ole Miss could potentially knock the Rebels out of the playoff. ESPN's playoff predictor puts Ole Miss' playoff chances at 41% with a loss to the Bulldogs. With Ole Miss out of SEC title contention with a loss, the committee could put other teams, like Texas and others, in front of Kiffin's team. Ole Miss is a 7-point favorite.
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Kansas beats No. 13 Utah, UCF beats No. 11 BYU
The Big 12 championship game is not yet set, as Texas Tech, BYU, Utah and Arizona State are all alive in the race. If Utah goes down to unranked, 5-6 Kansas, that would knock the Utes out of the Big 12 title game hunt, and move Texas up in the rankings.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAlthough BYU is ranked 11th, the Cougars were not included in the CFP's latest bracket. A loss to 5-6 UCF would just further solidify that, and move Texas up from behind the Cougars.
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