Isaiah Hole, Wolverines WireMon, November 24, 2025 at 1:42 AM UTC·7 min readThe Game is fast approaching, with Ohio State coming to The Big House on Saturday. Though the Buckeyes are 10.5-point favorites over the Wolverines, OSU has often been the favorite, including last year, when it was a three-score favorite in Columbus. And yet, Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry.
On paper, Ohio State is the better team in most metrics, and the eye test confirms that. But the same could be said last year, the same could be said in 2021 and 2022. Only 2023 was the year when both teams entered The Game evenly matched.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementSo we're digging a little deeper into the stats by looking at who each team has played. Even though transitive property isn't a real way to evaluate a matchup, we can at least come to understand some trends.
OVERVIEW
Michigan faced tougher average offenses, going up against offenses with an average rank of 84.4, compared to Ohio State, which faced offenses ranked 89.6.
Michigan faced tougher average defenses, going up against defenses with an average rank of 50.6 compared to Ohio State, which faced defenses ranked 58.4.
Go to the bottom of this article to see the ranks of the teams both have faced.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementRun game
Michigan, at No. 10 nationally in rushing offense, is the toughest Ohio State will have faced all year. Washington at No. 57 is the best rushing offense the Buckeyes have faced. USC (44) and Northwestern (52) are the toughest rushing offenses Michigan has faced. Ohio State is No. 56. Ohio State has the No. 2 rushing defense, and Michigan is the No. 11 rushing defense. The toughest roughing defense Michigan has faced is Oklahoma (3 - 146 yards, most OU gave up all season). No. 16 Wisconsin and No. 18 Washington are the toughest rushing defenses Ohio State has faced (both common opponents). Wisconsin gave up 175 rushing yards to Michigan and 98 to Ohio State. Washington gave up 187 rushing yards to Michigan (most all season) and 149 to Ohio State.
Given that the team that wins the rushing battle since 2000 has won the game, let's look deeper, in particular, how Michigan has fared on the ground.
Michigan rush defenses faced:
New Mexico (21st) - 201 yards, most the Lobos surrendered
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOklahoma (3rd) - 146 yards, most the Sooners surrendered
Central Michigan (62nd) - 381 yards, most the Chippewas surrendered
Nebraska (94th) - 286 yards, most the Huskers surrendered
Wisconsin (16th) - 175 yards, third-most the Badgers surrendered
USC (71st) - 109 yards, Justice Haynes injured in the second quarter
Washington (18th) - 187 yards, most the Huskies surrendered
Michigan State (80) - 276 yards, second-most the Spartans surrendered
Purdue (92nd) - 253 yards, second-most the Boilermakers surrendered (by one-yard)
Northwestern (55th) - 216 yards, second-most the Wildcats surrendered
Maryland (109th) - 228 yards, third-most the Terps surrendered (Michigan played its third through sixth-stringers for the entire game)
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAnd here are Ohio State's rushing metrics.
Ohio State rush defenses faced:
Texas (8th) - 77 yards, fifth-fewest the Longhorns have surrendered
*Grambling State (47th by number, if GSU was in the FBS) - 274 yards, the most Ohio State has managed all year
Ohio (77th) - 225 yards, most the Bobcats surrendered
Washington (18th) - 149 yards, third-most the Huskies surrendered
Minnesota (35th) - 133 yards, fifth-fewest the Gophers have surrendered
Illinois (39th) - 106 yards, fifth-fewest the Illini have surrendered
Wisconsin (16th) - 98 yards, fourth-most the Badgers have surrendered
Penn State (64th) - 164 yards, fourth-most the Nittany Lions have surrendered
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementPurdue (92nd) - 170 yards, sixth-fewest the Boilermakers have surrendered
UCLA (126th) - 222 yards, fourth-most the Bruins have surrendered
Rutgers (129th) - 254 yards, third-most the Scarlet Knights have surrendered
Pass game
Michigan has the No. 101 passing offense, but is ranked 76th at home (outside of Purdue at home and the past two road games, there's been a clear home-road dichotomy). Ohio State is the No. 28 passing offense, the second-best Michigan has faced (Week 7 opponent USC is ranked No. 8, had 265 yards vs. the Wolverines, the Trojans' fourth-lowest of year). Ohio State is the top-rated passing defense in the country.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementMichigan has faced No. 2 Nebraska (105 yards, fourth-lowest given up) and No. 37 Northwestern (280 yards, second-most given up). Ohio State has faced No. 17 Penn State (316 yards, most given up, by far, by the Nittany Lions), No. 28 UCLA (218 yards, the most surrendered, but within 20 yards of seven other teams; though OSU had the third-lowest yards per average).
Texas (ranked 35th) is the best passing offense Ohio State has faced, followed by No. 37 Rutgers and No. 40 Washington. Defensively, Ohio State gave up 170 yards to Texas, 81 yards to Rutgers, and 173 to Washington.
COMMON OPPONENTS
Michigan and Ohio State have played three common opponents in 2025. All three were at home for Michigan and all three were on the road for Ohio State, so take that into account (even though transitive property isn't really a thing).
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementPurdue vs Michigan
Michigan defense allowed 276 yards
Michigan offense gained 398 yards
Purdue vs Ohio State
Ohio State defense allowed 186 yards
Ohio State offense gained 473 yards
Differences: Ohio State gave up 90 fewer yards on defense, Ohio State gained 75 more yards on offense
Washington vs Michigan
Michigan defense allowed 249 yards
Michigan offense gained 417 yards
Washington vs Ohio State
Ohio State defense allowed 234 yards
Ohio State offense gained 357 yards
Differences: Ohio State gave up 15 fewer yards on defense, Michigan gained 60 more yards on offense
Wisconsin vs. Michigan
Michigan defense allowed 252 yards
Michigan offense gained 445 yards
Wisconsin vs Ohio State
Ohio State defense allowed 144 yards
Ohio State offense gained 491 yards
Differences: Ohio State gave up 108 fewer yards on defense, Ohio State gained 46 more yards on offense
Opposing offenses faced
Michigan opponents
New Mexico - 81
Oklahoma - 94
Central Michigan - 107
Nebraska - 75
Wisconsin - 135
USC - 8
Washington - 31
Michigan State - 109
Purdue - 95
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNorthwestern - 90
Maryland - 103
Average: 84.4
Ohio State opponents
Texas - 74
*Grambling State - 119 (*as if GSU was in the FBS)
Ohio - 48
Washington - 31
Minnesota - 126
Illinois - 79
Wisconsin - 135
Penn State - 101
Purdue - 95
UCLA - 117
Rutgers - 61
Average: 89.6
Opposing defenses faced
Michigan opponents rank
New Mexico - 49
Oklahoma - 11
Central Michigan - 56
Nebraska - 20
Wisconsin - 37
USC - 54
Washington - 18
Michigan State - 62
Purdue - 113
Northwestern - 42
Maryland - 95
Average: 50.6
Ohio State opponents rank
Texas - 39
*Grambling State - 41
Ohio - 58
Washington - 18
Minnesota - 50
Illinois - 60
Wisconsin - 37
Penn State - 25
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementPurdue - 113
UCLA - 82
Rutgers - 119
Average: 58.4
CONCLUSION
Michigan is still a work-in-progress compared to Ohio State, but generally, the Wolverines (marginally) have a stronger strength of schedule (37th to 52nd, per ESPN FPI) and have faced tougher offenses and defenses than the Buckeyes. But Michigan has also struggled more, even with perceived lesser opponents, in general. However, when it comes to common opponents, Ohio State has only performed marginally better in terms of yards gained and yards allowed.
Does it mean anything? Maybe. The Wolverines have been in far more close games, whereas OSU has only been in one (Texas) which is the only team that somewhat compares to Michigan in terms of strength and ability. Michigan is also far better at running the football, especially against tougher run defenses. But Ohio State has been better passing the football against tougher pass defenses. Both teams provide the toughest defensive test for the other this year, and though OSU has been more consistent, it hasn't faced but one offense ranked higher than Michigan overall (Washington is 31st, Michigan is 38th).
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe key for Michigan is to run the football and do enough in the pass game, while maintaining a run wall vs. OSU while disrupting the pass game enough keeping the Buckeyes out of the end zone. Ultimately, it doesn't look much different than the 2021 game plan. But the Ohio State defense does appear to be far superior to that iteration, so it will be tough sledding in that arena. However, if Michigan can run the football while keeping OSU from doing the same, The Game could be turned on its head -- again.
This article originally appeared on Wolverines Wire: Digging into key stats that shape Michigan–Ohio State matchup Saturday
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