17 things to watch as Daniel Jones, Colts try to bury Chiefs

A monumental game awaits a Colts team coming off its bye week.

Even if it seems like the records are flipped.

Indianapolis is the powerhouse, the team in control of its division and trying to stay in competition for the No. 1 seed. Kansas City, the winner of three of the last five Super Bowls, is the talented team looking into the playoff picture from the outside, hoping to get back into the room where it’s warm and familiar.

The Chiefs (5-5) are still dangerous, and they’re taking on the Colts (8-2) at home at 1 p.m. Sunday in Arrowhead Stadium (WTTV-4) in front of a Kansas City crowd eager for a win.

Indianapolis has a chance to put the Chiefs in emergency mode for the rest of the season.

1. For the first eight games of the season, Daniel Jones was the picture of poise in the pocket, taking just nine sacks and fumbling only twice, leaving the Indianapolis offense without much of a weakness. The last two games, Jones has been sacked 12 times and has six fumbles, losing four to prompt questions about regression to the version of Jones the NFL saw under pressure in New York. For what it’s worth, Jones hasn’t been hanging onto the ball longer; he averaged 2.65 seconds from snap to throw against Pittsburgh and 2.67 against Atlanta, getting it out faster than his season average of 2.74. Indianapolis must protect Jones better, and he has to prove the last two games were the aberration, rather than the norm.

2. The Indianapolis offensive line has a chance to get back on track this week. Kansas City’s pass rush has been far from dominant this season. The Chiefs rank 20th in the NFL with 22 sacks, and their pressure numbers match, ranking 22nd in the NFL by producing pressure on 33.2% of dropbacks. Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has responded by blitzing at the ninth-highest rate in football, sending five or more rushers on 30.6% of dropbacks, but it hasn’t paid off for the Chiefs.

3. One reason Kansas City’s pass rush hasn’t lived up to its reputation is that its biggest star is having a down year by his standards. Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones has three sacks, 10 quarterback hits and 24 pressures, numbers that place him in the middle of the pack. Going up against Colts guards Quenton Nelson and Matt Goncalves likely won’t make life any easier for Jones.

4. Defensive end George Karlaftis, the former Purdue star, has tried to pick up the slack. Karlaftis leads Kansas City with five sacks, 17 quarterback hits and 42 pressures, a number that places him in the NFL’s top 10, according to Next Gen Stats. Karlaftis typically rushes off the left side of the defense, putting him across from Colts right tackle Braden Smith, who is having a resurgent year.

5. Spagnuolo will bring blitzes from all over the defense. Three Chiefs have sacks this season, and off-ball linebacker Drue Tranquill has two, putting pressure on Jones and center Tanor Bortolini to identify blitzes, adjust the protection and then get the ball out before the blitzer can get home.

6. Kansas City’s pass defense is ranked just 23rd in the NFL in yards per dropback, giving up 6.86 yards every time a quarterback drops back to pass. Cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson have posted respectable numbers, allowing a 77.7 rating and 73.0 when they’re the nearest defender, but the Chiefs’ safeties and linebackers have struggled. Kansas City has good numbers against tight ends this season, but Colts rookie tight end Tyler Warren is one of the NFL’s toughest tests at his position, third among all tight ends with 617 receiving yards.

7. The Chiefs haven’t given up many home runs in the passing game. Kansas City has allowed three completions of 40 yards or more, sixth in the NFL. Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce, on the other hand, is the NFL’s best deep threat, leading the league at 20.9 yards per catch, and he has a knack for getting open deep.

8. Kansas City’s run defense ranks in the middle of the pack, allowing 4.18 yards per carry to rank 17th in the NFL, but the Chiefs have been much better lately. Kansas City has held three of its last four opponents to 3.0 yards per carry or fewer; the outlier was Buffalo, a team that features James Cook, ranked No. 2 in the NFL in rushing so far. Jonathan Taylor, the NFL’s rushing leader at a whopping 1,139 yards this season (Cook has 968), represents a stiff test for the Chiefs.

9. If the Colts get Anthony Gould back, the second-year return man has an opportunity on punts. Kansas City has allowed 15 yards per punt return, the third-worst mark in the league. If Gould isn’t able to return, Indianapolis will likely lean again on Josh Downs, who has been shaky at times but did put up a key 24-yard return against Atlanta.

10. Michael Badgley, the replacement kicker Indianapolis signed after Spencer Shrader’s season-ending injury, has shown some cracks. Badgley has now missed two extra points and he shorted a field goal in Berlin. The weather in Kansas City on Sunday is supposed to be gorgeous, much more like the conditions in Pittsburgh when Badgley made two kicks from 50-plus yards.

11. Kansas City’s offense can move the ball. The Chiefs rank in the top 10 in scoring (9th, 25.4 points per game), yards (7th, 364.2), yards per play (9th, 5.96), passing yards (5th, 248.9), yards per dropback (10th, 6.89), sack percentage (9th, 5.54%), third downs (9th, 41.27%), red zone (7th, 65.85%), and turnovers (t-2nd, 6). An Indianapolis defense still getting used to life without defensive tackle DeForest Buckner has its work cut out for it in Arrowhead on Sunday.

12. Chiefs superstar Patrick Mahomes has been more solid than spectacular this season, completing 64.5% of his passes, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt and posting a 95.8 quarterback rating, but he remains one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. In the past, Indianapolis defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has found ways to give Mahomes trouble at the line of scrimmage, and considering the Colts do not have Buckner, Anarumo will have to put together another game plan to keep Mahomes from getting in a rhythm early.

13. Kansas City has five different wide receivers who have more than 250 receiving yards this season, but the Chiefs passing game has changed with the return of Rashee Rice. Rice has averaged 6.5 catches and 8.8 targets in the four games since he returned to the lineup, making him a clear No. 1 target. If Indianapolis gets Charvarius Ward back from injured reserve this week, the Colts will have two No. 1 cornerbacks available, and it will be interesting to see if Ward or Sauce Gardner gets a Rice assignment.

14. A lot of the Chiefs’ other targets are speed threats. Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown and Tyquan Thornton are all deep threats, and Thornton might be the most dangerous, averaging 24.8 yards per catch on just 15 grabs this season. Thornton, at 6-foot-2, is a much bigger player, potentially making him a matchup for the lengthy Gardner; the Colts have Mekhi Blackmon available to cover smaller, speedier receivers, although it will be interesting to see how Anarumo deploys his cornerbacks.

15. Kansas City’s leading receiver is still Travis Kelce, whose 50 catches, 631 yards and four touchdowns make the 36-year-old star the only tight end in the AFC out-producing Warren after the first 10 games of the season, even if it’s only by a little bit. How the Colts choose to handle Kelce will be interesting; Anarumo has said in the past that he doesn’t like to leave linebackers on tight ends, preferring to use nickels or cornerbacks. With that in mind, do the Colts use a dime package to get Jaylon Jones on the field? Do they move a player like Ward inside? Kelce has a knack for freelancing, making zone coverage a difficult way to stop him entirely.

16. Mahomes has taken 20 sacks this season, but the Kansas City quarterback is not an easy player to corral. He’s averaging just 2.69 seconds from snap to throw, scrambles well and hasn’t taken more than three sacks in any game. Without Buckner available, the Colts have to be hoping that Laiatu Latu takes the next step in the second half. But Indianapolis might also have to dial up the blitz a bit more, although Anarumo has cautioned that Mahomes is typically excellent at recognizing pressures, allowing him to take advantage of the holes left by blitzing linebackers and defensive backs.

17. Kansas City running back Isiah Pacheco has missed the last two games with an MCL sprain. If Pacheco cannot go again Sunday, the Chiefs will rely on veteran Kareem Hunt, who has 86 carries for 353 yards and six touchdowns to lead Kansas City. Outside of Mahomes, who is averaging 6.0 yards per carry and has 288 rushing yards this season, the Chiefs have been fairly pedestrian in the running game, putting the pressure squarely on the shoulders of a Colts pass defense that hopes it has both Gardner and Ward available together for the first time.

Joel A. Erickson and Nathan Brown cover the Colts all season. Get more coverage on IndyStarTV and with the Colts Insider newsletter.

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