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Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry prediction, time for UFC Qatar

2025-11-22 13:02
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The UFC Qatar co-feature is a big one at welterweight. Will it be Belal Muhammad or Ian Machado Garry making their case for a title shot?

Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry prediction, time for UFC QatarStory byDan Tom, MMA JunkieSat, November 22, 2025 at 1:02 PM UTC·2 min read

Belal Muhammad and Ian Machado Garry meet in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night 265 at ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.

Last event: 3-2

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UFC main cards, 2025: 113-83-2

Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry UFC Qatar preview

Muhammad (24-4 MMA, 15-4 UFC) returns to action for the first time since losing the welterweight title in May to Jack Della Maddalena. The result marked the end of a 10-fight unbeaten run, which saw Muhammad claim the title in a unanimous decision over Leon Edwards last July.

Machado Garry (16-1 MMA, 9-1 UFC) hopes to land a title shot win a win here. In his first fight of the year, Machado Garry won a unanimous decision over Carlos Prates. "The Future" suffered a setback against Shavkat Rakhmonov in the fight prior, which was also the first loss of his career.

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Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry UFC Qatar expert pick, prediction

The co-main event in Qatar features a welterweight contender's fight between Muhammad and Machado Garry that feels like it deserves five rounds.

Muhammad is coming off a failed title defense opposite Jack Della Maddalena and finds himself in a tough, high-pressure spot given the grand scheme of things. Whereas Machado Garry, who was able to bounce back from his lone career loss earlier this year, is riding high after a win that's aging fairly well over Carlos Prates.

Should Muhammad get back to his smart, game-planning ways, then he could make this fight deceptively difficult for Machado Garry given his ability to wrestle at the legs (something that took Shavkat Rakhmonov some time to figure out in his fight with "The Future").

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The potential problem, however, is that Machado Garry carries some solid takedown defense and balance to boot – as well as an ability to find the back in scrambles. And considering that Muhammad has looked suspect and lost for answers in negative positions against previous opponents like Leon Edwards, the former champ could get more than he bargains for if he elects to grapple with Machado Garry.

Add in Garry's on-paper edges and his own ability to smartly game plan, and I believe that this has the potential to look like a real crossroads fight.

Muhammad is a live dog, but I'll officially pick Machado Garry to score a semi-surprising knockout by the midway point of Round 2.

Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry UFC Qatar odds

The oddsmakers and the public favor the Brazilian-Irishman, listing Machado Garry -265 and Muhammad +210 via FanDuel.

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Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry UFC Qatar start time, how to watch

As the co-main event, Muhammad and Machado Garry are expected to walk to the cage at approximately 3:10 p.m. ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+.

This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: UFC Qatar: Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry prediction, start time

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