The pick: Why No. 21 James Madison will beat Washington State

Nov. 21—Only a few minutes after his Washington State team fell apart in the fourth quarter of a loss to Virginia, which came about a month ago, coach Jimmy Rogers sat at a table and discussed the result with reporters. The crowd noise had clearly bothered the Cougars, who committed five penalties in the fourth quarter alone, leading to a late collapse.

"The speakers must not be loud enough," Rogers mused. "We gotta make it as loud as possible at practice."

The Cougars won't be walking into a stadium of the same size this weekend, when they'll visit No. 21 James Madison on Saturday, but they will be experiencing an environment of similar invective. The Dukes' stadium seats only a third of the capacity, but with their team soaring into the College Football Playoff picture, fans will treat the Cougs to a hectic environment.

Rogers prides his teams on physicality and discipline, but the Cougars have only delivered on the first with regularity this fall. Here's predicting that WSU's trouble with the second will lead to a loss to James Madison, which is favored by 13.5. The Dukes' combination of elite football and frenzied atmosphere will prove too much for the visiting Cougs.

Only 1-4 on the road this fall, WSU has not looked like the same team away from Pullman. The Cougars have often struggled with penalties, but those have erupted on the road, where they're averaging 7 penalties for 58 yards. Several have plagued their offensive line, which was whistled for three flags in the first quarter last weekend alone.

Then there's the problem of the Dukes' defense, which is a top-10 unit in terms of stop rate, the percentage of a defense's drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. The Dukes are fifth nationally in total defense, and with 10 interceptions on the year, they've tilted opposing offenses away from the pass.

Even with a loss this weekend, WSU can still earn bowl eligibility, which the program should take pride in, considering the circumstances: New head coach, 75 new players, wacky schedule, all of that. But the Cougs will have to do so in their regular-season finale the following week.

The pick: James Madison 24, WSU 19