Matt RussellContributing writerWed, December 3, 2025 at 8:50 PM UTC·10 min readWe’ve been tracking the biggest games of the college football season each week, even going into the deep recesses of the Sun Belt, Mountain West, MAC, Conference USA and the American Conference for high-level matchups in standings. So, now that we’re on to Conference Championship weekend, naturally, we’ve got five more games — the biggest of the season in each league — to break down the betting market for.
When college football went to a 12-team playoff and included a fifth conference champion, it was a token gesture to give a Group of Five underdog a chance. While last year’s representative, Boise State – and its Heisman-nominated running back Ashton Jeanty – was the easy choice for the playoff, there’s twice as much at stake for “G5” teams in this year’s title games.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThis past weekend saw even more twists in the ACC race, finally resulting in a matchup of five-loss Duke against Virginia in the conference championship. A minor upset by the Blue Devils would almost definitely open up a slot for not just the winner of North Texas and Tulane in the American Conference Championship, but also James Madison, assuming they win the Sun Belt — converting as more than three-touchdown favorites over Troy.
Meanwhile, the trio of other title games are lined in the neighborhood of a coin flip, with all but the MAC Championship being played at the campus site of the conference’s regular season champion.
Conference USA: Kennesaw State (-2.5, 59.5) at Jacksonville State
This summer, before their second year at the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) level, the Owls were projected by the betting market to win 3-4 games, and were 50-1 to win Conference USA. Nine wins later, and Kennesaw State is favored on the road at Jacksonville State.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe betting market has boosted Kennesaw’s rating thanks to a 9-1 run that puts them on the road only because their lone loss came at Jacksonville State. However, oddsmakers are undaunted by that game, as the Owls outgained the Gamecocks 579-451, but had four drives end in interception inside the 20-yard line, including one on downs and a missed 29-yard field goal.
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Making assumptions that the Owls will have that same offensive success, but without the turnovers/miscues can be troublesome – especially since Jacksonville State has the better Success Rate on both offense and defense during conference play. The defending-champion Gamecocks came into the season fourth on the oddsboard in Conference USA because of the assumption that they’d fall off after Rich Rodriguez left for a return to West Virginia. And they haven’t gained a bump in market rating because many of their road wins have been close, and due to a loss at Florida International (during a time where the Panthers were winning four straight).
In Week 14, we backed Jacksonville State in a quasi-playoff game as a home underdog that was a rematch of the 2024 CUSA title game with Western Kentucky. In a game we, at THE WINDOW, have projected as a pick’em, we’ll trust the Gamecocks’ run game with quarterback Caden Creel and the leading rusher in the country, Cam Cook, to take advantage of a thinning Kennesaw linebacker group.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementPick: Jacksonville State +2.5
Sun Belt: Troy at No. 25 James Madison (-23.5, 47.5)
Spoiler: James Madison is going to beat Troy, completing their resume for CFP committee, but the question is: By how much?
Our projection has this line at -22.5 for the Dukes, but Troy is coming off a win-to-get-in upset of Southern Miss on the road, likely causing oddsmakers to open it a tick lower at -20.5, only to see it run up and through our projection. By rule, taking JMU at the opening line would have been advised, but now waiting to see if we see +25 for a bet on Troy is the only way to look based on value, in the rudimentary sense. However, with a line this high and focus likely to wane late, the side is a pass.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Dukes were supposed to be here as the Sun Belt favorite before the season, and they’ve regularly covered big numbers. At home, JMU’s taken care of business against Sun Belt foes:
35-10 vs. Georgia Southern (covered -15.5)
24-14 vs. Louisiana (didn’t cover -18.5)
63-27 vs. Old Dominion (covered -3)
58-10 vs. Appalachian State (covered -21
The lone non-cover came when James Madison lost the turnover battle by two to Louisiana, but the key result is a blowout win over Old Dominion, which, from a market rating perspective, is the only other Sun Belt team even close to the same level as JMU. While Troy and JMU haven’t played this season, the Trojans lost 33-0 at ODU, gaining all of 138 total yards, and didn’t face the other decent defense in the conference (Marshall).
Five teams had shorter odds than Troy to win the Sun Belt, and their route to the conference title game was a surprise, but only three teams in the league had a worse offensive Success Rate than the Trojans.
Instead of backing JMU to blowout Troy, there’s a better chance that comes in the form of a complete shutting down of the Trojans and Goose Crowder, so we’ll give the under a gander, thinking this may be a 35-10 or 34-13 type of game.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementLastly, for the first time all season, James Madison’s potential inclusion in the CFP has nothing to do with style points. Finally ranked as of Tuesday night, they’re already ahead of Duke, and all that matters is that Duke beats Virginia, for the Dukes to get in as the “second” G5 team.
Pick: Under 47.5 total points
American: No. 24 North Texas (-2.5, 66.5) at No. 20 Tulane
The CFP Committee removed any ambiguity by ranking North Texas, so we now know that the winner takes all in the American final.
Both Eric Morris and John Sumrall are being allowed to coach their teams on Friday, and throughout the postseason, despite being headed elsewhere after their teams are eliminated. Things are a little more chill in the G5.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNorth Texas is a road favorite for two reasons:
Fewer losses means fewer downgrades in the market
Bettors like offensive metrics that are through the roof in the American Conference
The (11-1) Mean Green’s offense has run through much of the conference, regularly putting up 50-plus points (UTSA, Rice, Temple, Charlotte, UAB). Where that fell apart was when they faced South Florida, and back-to-back turnovers were turned into touchdowns and a three-touchdown deficit. While they still managed 443 yards, they weren’t able to keep up with the Bulls, who had 580.
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South Florida had the best defense by Success Rate and Line Yards in the AAC. The second and third teams in the good quadrant are East Carolina and Memphis. We would let you know how North Texas did against those defenses if they had played. As for that team rated fourth in defense? That’s Tulane.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Green Wave signed up for a challenge this season taking on three Power-Four teams in the non-conference schedule, beating Northwestern and Duke but getting blown out at Ole Miss — all results that look better in hindsight. On paper, those results, along with a road win at Memphis, are helpful in determining the capability of a Tulane team that was lucky enough to avoid South Florida and Navy.
Tulane’s lone American loss was similar to North Texas’, in that turnovers — fumble, on downs, missed 23-yard field goal — turned a 7-6 game into a 24-6 deficit, while a capable UTSA offense had its best game of the season with Owen McCown going 31-for-33 passing at home in the Roadrunners’ lone primetime showcase.
In this prime-time showcase, the Green Wave are at home, and when factoring in that advantage, we have this as a pure pick’em, with Tulane favored by a half-point. While we’d take any points, guarding against an overtime scenario where the two-point conversion comes into play is key in a game that should come down to the wire.
Pick: Tulane +2.5
Mountain West: UNLV at Boise State (-4, 58.5)
There was a point last week where neither UNLV nor Boise State thought they’d be in this game, but when the computers were brought in to break a four-way tie atop the Mountain West, they came up with arguably the least inspiring matchup. At least it might be a good betting opportunity.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementUNLV getting credit in the numbers was surprising, considering the best of its six conference wins came at home against sixth-place Hawai’i (a team rated in the bottom third of the conference before the season). Meanwhile, Maddux Madsen’s injury looked to be the death blow to Boise’s season when they lost to Fresno State and at San Diego State in successive weeks. While backup Max Cutforth kept things afloat, the defense and a three-headed running attack saved the season at Utah State, and now Madsen’s expected to return.
Let’s put Madsen’s return in context.
Before the season, Boise State was projected at -6.5 in this matchup
In Week 8, Boise hosted UNLV and was a 13-point favorite
Last week’s Boise State rating (with Cutforth) would have made the Broncos -4 in Week 8
UNLV covered last week, while Boise didn’t, suggesting the former should be upgraded, while the latter should get downgraded, creating an opening line of around a field goal
This line has crept from an open of -2.5, through the key number of -3, likely on the realization that if the Broncos have a healthy Madsen, then the line should have some reflection of when Boise beat the Rebels 56-31 as 13-point favorites. Even if that 25-point win could be argued as a little misleading, given that UNLV at least ran for 261 yards.
Knowing this spread could easily keep creeping towards -7, backing Boise at home is the only play leading into a cold Friday night in Idaho.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementPick: Boise State -4
MAC: Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan (-2.5, 43.5)
While Miami (FL) is wondering how it’s not yet in the College Football Playoff, Miami (OH) might be confused as to how they got in the MAC Championship in Detroit.
The Redhawks somehow won a three-team tiebreaker with two teams that they lost to, and despite Ohio and Toledo rated as the better teams in the betting market. The third team — Western Michigan, has seen a slow rise up the MAC market power ratings, to the point where we have them projected over a field goal favorite.
This line could be due to Miami winning the regular season matchup at home, but the Redhawks needed a fourth-quarter comeback to tame the Mustangs, and the starting quarterback for that game, Dequan Finn (who accounted for both touchdowns) has since left the team to focus on a pro career he thinks he may have.
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Without that dual threat, Miami’s turned to freshman Thomas Gotkowski, who’s played well, but two games against Buffalo and Ball State isn’t the biggest sample size given the competition. The Redhawks’ metrics land in the middle of the league on both sides of the ball.
From a Success Rate standpoint, WMU has the best offense and the second-best defense in the MAC, and most other metrics like the Mustangs’ defense even more than that. So their 7-1 league-leading record is no fluke. It didn’t take long for the Mustangs to commit to Broc Lowry at quarterback, and with Jalen Buckley, they have the run game that can stretch a lead and limit possessions to give the favorite the MAC title.
Pick: Western Michigan -2.5
You can find more on college football’s biggest games and best bets each week from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
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