Tatsuya Imai scouting report: Analyzing Cubs’ possible free agent target

The most intriguing pitcher on the MLB free agent market may not be Dylan Cease or Michael King, two pitchers who have already been linked to the Cubs.

Instead, that title might go to Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai.

[Michael King could provide attractive option for Cubs in free agency]

Imai was posted earlier this week and is expected to sign with an MLB team by Jan. 2, when his negotiation window closes.

As the Cubs search for impact starting pitching, Imai is already a name we’ve seen connected to Chicago.

Marquee Sports Network’s Lance Brozdowski provided an in-depth scouting report on Imai on “Cubs 360” Friday evening, including a unicorn-esque skillset.

“Really interesting starter … From the data side from my perspective, I want to dig into the three things in particular,” Brozdowski said. “The fastball velocity is really good. He’s 95.5 mph, he touches about 98-99 mph. You see the major league average 4-seam is right around 94.5 mph.

“The big thing — you talk about why is he so effective? [His release height is] much lower than the major league average by about 10 inches. That creates a visual perception for a hitter of his fastball being very flat to the zone. So it’s hard to get under it and get on top of it. … He’s a little bit undersized, gets down the mound really well, but it’s really low slot. The average arm angle in baseball is right around 40 degrees. He’s around 20 degrees. That’s a big difference.”

Imai also throws a slider — that goes completely against expectations.

Sliders from right-handed pitchers typically bite away from right-handed hitters, toward the left-handed batter’s box. Imai’s moves in the opposite way — it dives in on righties.

“The last thing here is really weird,” Brozdowski explained. “… [The slider] is a very odd shape, one you don’t see a lot in Major League Baseball. That makes him maybe a little difficult to project going forward in Major League Baseball. Because there’s not a lot of precedent of this arm-side slider shape.

“But he throws hard. He’s also got, like, three variations of off-speed that are all really effective. He’s a fascinating arm. You’re gonna have to pay him probably close to $150 million or so with this posting fee attached to him.”

Imai will turn 28 in May and posted stellar numbers in 2025. He was 10-5 with the Seibu Lions with a 1.92 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 178 strikeouts in 163.2 innings.

He has four straight seasons with an ERA under 2.50 and has whiffed batters at a rate of 9.64 K/9 over that span in Japan.

The potential is tantalizing. But there is also a high degree of risk associated with Imai.

Is it too much risk for the Cubs?

“I think he’s gonna be a hot commodity,” Brozdowski said on “Cubs 360.” “Partially because there’s a lot of variance around this profile. When you’re projecting these guys to come over, it’s often tough to totally lock in and be like, we know his projection will be this. When you’re looking at Dylan Cease, he’s been in the majors for a while. He’s basically a metronome from an innings pitched standpoint. I kind of know what I’m getting from him.

“Imai, you have a wider range of outcomes. So it becomes a tolerance of what team wants to pay maybe over what another team’s going to pay. If Cubs are willing to go to $130 million on him, is there another team that will go to $140, $150? That risk calculation on him is just harder to peg. I think from a front office standpoint, that’s attractive to some teams. Other teams that prefer safety, maybe not so much.”

Catch Brozdowski’s full breakdown of Imai on the Marquee Sports Network app.

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