Three Best Bets of the Week

Last week did not go our way, as I finished just 1-for-2 on my picks and moved my overall season record to 11-7. Fortunately for Detroit, the Lions are getting healthier at the right time. Their Wednesday practice report listed only two players who did not participate: safety Kerby Joseph (knee) and cornerback Terrion Arnold (concussion).

With the Lions facing a favorable home showdown against the New York Giants, this slate presents another opportunity to put a little extra turkey on the table heading into the holiday. Here are three bets I like for this week.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

This has quietly been one of my favorite bets of the season, even if it’s been inconsistent and has cashed only four times so far. The matchup, however, sets up beautifully for Gibbs. The Giants enter the week allowing the second-most rushing yards per game in the NFL at 149.9, a number that has become a trend rather than an outlier.

One game that stands out came in Week 8, when New York faced Philadelphia and allowed Saquon Barkley to rush for 150 yards while backup Tank Bigsby added 104 more. The Giants have repeatedly shown difficulty containing explosive runners, and Gibbs fits that mold perfectly.

Compounding matters, news broke Thursday that Giants starting quarterback Jaxson Dart will be ruled out. The betting line immediately shifted from Lions –10.5 to Lions –12.5, signaling that oddsmakers anticipate Detroit to control the game script, especially in the second half. More positive game flow typically means more carries for Gibbs.

Of the Lions’ four home games this season, Gibbs has hit this rushing mark in three. The only time he missed was the loss to Minnesota. He averages 5.2 yards per carry, meaning that if he reaches approximately 15 carries — a realistic benchmark — he should clear this number comfortably. Over his last eight games, he has averaged 14.9 rushing attempts.

Finally, Gibbs has the explosive-play upside to clear a number like this in one shot. He already did so earlier this season with a 78-yard run against Tampa Bay. Given the matchup and the expected game script, the over is my favorite play of the week.

Lions –12.5 (-110)

If you grabbed this line early, you’re sitting pretty. Detroit opened as a 9.5-point favorite, but the news of Dart’s injury pushed the number upward. Even with the line movement, the Lions remain the clear side.

Detroit’s last four wins have all come by at least 13 points. Even after losing tight end Sam LaPorta to injury, the Lions should have more than enough firepower to handle a depleted Giants team. New York will also be without edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, the former No. 7 overall pick, weakening its pass rush significantly. Jared Goff has been dominant with a clean pocket, particularly inside Ford Field.

The Lions are also a remarkable 13-0 against the spread when coming off a loss, a testament to Campbell’s ability to get his team locked in after a setback. Detroit has not lost back-to-back games since 2022, and this matchup strongly favors another bounce-back performance.

David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown (-120)

For this one, we return to an old reliable. Although Montgomery has been relatively quiet this season, Campbell said this week that he wants to get the veteran running back more involved. The matchup aligns perfectly with that plan.

The Giants have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns, the second-most in the league. Montgomery has already scored five times on the ground this season and remains Detroit’s most trusted goal-line option. If the Lions get inside the 10-yard line — especially in 1st-and-goal or 2nd-and-goal situations — Montgomery is the likely ballcarrier.

The 12.5-point spread also suggests the Lions could be running the ball more late in the game, creating additional scoring chances for Montgomery.

A combination of all three picks yields +380 odds, meaning a $10 bet could return $38 if they all hit. The Lions have consistently cashed props at home against weaker opponents. Expect Detroit to control this matchup and give these bets a strong chance to deliver.