We've got 13 weeks in the books, which means 13 managers in your Yahoo Fantasy Guillotine Leagues presented by Liquid Death are no longer around. It’s a wicked game, isn’t it? Of course, it’s wickedly fun when you’re on the good side of things.
If you’re still reading our weekly Guillotine League missive, congratulations. You made it to December. This will be our last look at the weekly cuts this season. I hope you’ve enjoyed the ride, as I have, and I hope you’re still alive in your leagues (if you’re reading, you probably are). Hybrid formats for the win!
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement[Eliminated or looking for more fun? There's still time to join or create another Yahoo Fantasy Guillotine League]
As always, I’ll run through the most commonly-cut players and some FAB advice below, but the strategy becomes more and more context-dependent in the late stages of the season. And it’s critical that you audit the FAB budgets remaining for your competitors. It’s not unlike poker, where a good player is constantly reevaluating the chip dynamics of the table, who’s deep and who’s thin. Leverage is everything.
The waiver wire will be especially rich every week at this point, as the cut teams become stronger and stronger. It’s also more plausible to find useful players on the wire for nothing, players who would never be free agents in a casual league. Remember, your manager pool keeps shrinking in size.
Understanding FAB recommendations
Proactive: This means you highly covet this player, perhaps might even need this player. I realize these offers might not win if someone in your league is going all in, but as described above, that can be short-sighted in this format with how much talent is available each week.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementReactive: This means you desire the player but the cost has to make sense for your short- or long-term strategy.
Keep Them Honest: This is an offer that is not designed to win, but might surprisingly land a player if your opponents are distracted by other talent available or unexpectedly passive that week. I often compare notes with other experienced Guillotine League players and we’re surprised at how often the "Keep Them Honest" bids actually win (this is also a portable strategy for regular season-long leagues; you never know when strange market behavior will come about).
Finally, understand that the FAB recommendations are with the assumption that you won’t be making offers for every available player.
Week 13's top-10 players on eliminated teams
Again, the FAB buckets are an extremely loose guide. Play the hand you’re dealt, and consider what’s around you. You know your league dynamics better than an outsider ever could.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement1. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions (51% of eliminated teams)
A first-quarter injury is forever a fantasy killer. The Lions have another Thursday game this week, with the Sun God in danger of missing time. Take note that Jameson Williams was terrific (7-144-1) after the St. Brown injury on Thanksgiving.
FAB recommendation:
Proactive: $130
Reactive: $80
Keep them honest: $40
2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks (49%)
Game script was his enemy in Week 13, as the Seahawks dominated Minnesota with defense and the running game. JSN had at least 90 scrimmage yards in every game prior to last week; recognize the outlier and go after him aggressively.
FAB recommendation:
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementProactive: $210
Reactive: $170
Keep them honest: $125
3. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions (42%)
Gibbs has been all over the map since the bye in Week 8, with two ridiculous games, two passable ones and one washout. But he’s averaging over 22 opportunities per game over the past four weeks; Gibbs still looks like a fantasy right answer to me, even in a format where everyone has star power.
FAB recommendation:
Proactive: $215
Reactive: $175
Keep them honest: $130
4. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts (37%)
Two things have held Taylor back in recent weeks — more challenging opponents, and an untimely slump from QB Daniel Jones. Taylor’s three-down role provides a sturdy floor, but maybe the challenging schedule (Jaguars, Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars) will continue to mute the upside. Still, I need to be competitive with my offers.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementFAB recommendation:
Proactive: $215
Reactive: $175
Keep them honest: $130
5. Puka Nacua, WR, Rams (36%)
Matthew Stafford had his worst game in two months as the Rams fell at Carolina. Nacua gave us one of the best catches of the year, but no touchdowns — the story we know by heart. Davante Adams owns the red zone.
FAB recommendation:
Proactive: $185
Reactive: $130
Keep them honest: $75
6. Josh Allen, QB, Bills (36%)
Allen only has eight touchdown passes in his past six starts, though he’s supplemented his value with eight rushing scores. Given how ordinary the Buffalo receiver group is, Allen needs that rushing equity to maintain his fantasy status. The Bengals are a favorable Week 14 draw.
FAB recommendation:
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementProactive: $160
Reactive: $110
Keep them honest: $70
7. Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers (35%)
McCaffrey was a respectable RB12 in the past week; his inclusion here shows how competitive Guillotine Leagues are this late in the year, when everyone has Super Teams. McCaffrey now steps into a Week 14 bye, but the rest of the schedule is lovely (Titans, Colts, Bears). Can you survive without him this week?
FAB recommendation:
Proactive: $210
Reactive: $170
Keep them honest: $125
8. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Bengals (31%)
Volume carried him through in Week 13 (7-110-0, 14 targets) and Joe Burrow should be sharper moving forward. Cincinnati’s usage tree is always narrow and the Bengals will regularly play in pinball games, as most opponents will exploit their weak defense. I hope I’m not playing against Chase in December.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementFAB recommendation:
Proactive: $210
Reactive: $170
Keep them honest: $125
9. Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles (30%)
His four games since the bye week have been a fantasy mess (RB20, RB27, RB24, RB43). There’s plenty of blame to go around — the line is hurt, the play-calling hasn’t clicked, Barkley isn’t as explosive as he was last year. After this week (Chargers), Barkley does face an easy rushing schedule (Raiders, Commanders, Bills). Do you feel lucky?
FAB recommendation:
Proactive: $160
Reactive: $100
Keep them honest: $60
10. Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens (30%)
His recent production has mostly been tied to touchdown deodorant, though there’s been a slight uptick in his receiving work. Henry has two good draws up next (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati), then faces the challenge of New England and Green Bay.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementFAB recommendation:
Proactive: $175
Reactive: $110
Keep them honest: $75