By Dan GoodingShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberA new poll of Illinois voters has found that Democratic Governor JB Pritzker still holds the lead over his potential Republican rival in next year’s gubernatorial election, despite his approval rating dipping.
In a survey of more than 1,200 likely Illinois voters, carried out between November 20 and 25 and seen by Fox 32, Chicago-based Victory Research put Pritzker at 54.3 percent of the vote, compared to 34 percent for GOP candidate Darren Bailey.
Newsweek reached out to Pritzker and Bailey’s campaigns, as well as Victory Research, via email Tuesday morning for comment.
Why It Matters
Pritzker has become one of the leading Democrats trying to stand up to President Donald Trump and his immigration policies, which in turn has meant the Republican has attacked the Illinois governor over his record on crime, particularly in Chicago.
First elected in 2019, Pritzker is hoping for a third term as governor, and next year’s election will fall on the same day as the midterms—a key test for the Trump administration and the Republican Party’s grip on Congress.
...What To Know
When voters were asked to pit Pritzker against his potential Republican rivals, Victory Research noted he did well, including the lead over Bailey, a former state senator whom he defeated in 2022.
Other names on the GOP list were less well known, including DuPage County Sheriff James Mendrick; policy expert Ted Dabrowski; and Rick Heidner, a real estate developer.
While name recognition appeared to be on Pritzker’s side in the poll, there were some policy areas which caused concern among the voters surveyed, including crime, taxation, and immigration.
On crime, Pritzker received a 34.1 percent good rating, compared to 58.9 percent of voters saying he was doing a bad job. When it came to immigration—a key issue the current governor has been vocal on—he received a 36.3 percent positive rating, compared to 57 percent bad.
Overall, 59.5 percent of those polled felt Illinois was on the wrong track.
For Bailey, who recently took time off from his campaign to grieve the loss of his son, daughter-in-law, and two grandchildren in a helicopter crash, he recently told the Chicago Tribune that he feels confident in his chances going into next year’s election, having learned lessons from his 2022 campaign.
One such lesson was the pushback he got from calling Chicago a “hellhole” three years ago, saying he understood the city had its problems, but that Chicagoans were proud of their city—one which has been a focal point for Trump’s immigration crackdown in recent months.
Pritzker, meanwhile, had focused on the impact of Trump’s policies on his state, including rising grocery prices and health care costs, while also appearing alongside those protesting the presence of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in Chicago and surrounding towns.
What People Are Saying
JB Pritzker, on X November 20: “You shouldn’t be burdened with financial uncertainty just because you got sick. While the Trump administration is causing chaos and making health care unaffordable for working families, in Illinois, we are working to ease the financial burden for the most vulnerable.”
Darren Bailey, speaking to the Chicago Tribune December 1 on Trump’s agenda: “I believe that in the next nine months, I personally believe that we’re going to see some of this stuff make sense. I mean, right now in Illinois, I point my fingers solidly at JB Pritzker and I have to ask: Why? Why the gas tax (increasing every year)? Why? Just why the continued spending? Why, every time there is a problem, we never address the problem?”
What’s Next
The Illinois primary day is scheduled for March 17, 2026, for both parties. Election day itself will be November 3, 2026.
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