Is smooth sailing the new outrageous? Saxo releases its annual Outrageous Predictions for 2026

Saxo has previous over the years for what may appear at first glance to be improbable forecasts, coming to pass.

Predictions that were much closer to the truth than thought:

• Late bloomer: Gold rockets to $3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate (OPs for 2022)

• Trump 2.0 blows up the US dollar (OPs for 2025)

• Nvidia balloons to twice the value of Apple (OPs for 2025)

• The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check (OPs for 2022)

• Volatility spikes after flash crash in stock markets (OPs for 2018)

• Bitcoin triples in value, from current $700 level to $2,100 (OPs for 2017)

• UK seen leaning toward 2017 exit from the EU (Brexit) on UKIP election landslide (OPs for 2015)

• Gold corrects to $1,200 per ounce (OPs for 2013)

The Saxo forecasts are not a house view or a forecast; they are low-probability, high-impact thought experiments designed to stretch the imagination and sharpen debate about what could happen if things leap forward in unexpected ways.

“Saxo’s outrageous predictions cover a lot of ground this year. From a true extraterrestrial financial market and weight-loss drugs for pets to Taylor Swift helping to upend digital addiction among global youth, and something as outrageous as a US political event without turmoil.

While the predictions are never about being right, but always about challenging consensus narratives. Perhaps in 2026, smooth sailing is the new outrageous,” says John J. Hardy, global head of macro strategy at Saxo.

Saxo's 2026 Outrageous Predictions:

Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

In tech, take cryptography and imagine what happens if Q-Day suddenly arrives in 2026, the day that quantum machines can crack yesterday’s digital locks effortlessly. Crypto collapses; gold screams to five figures; every bank and government scrambles to rebuild trust in a post-quantum security stack.

Market impact: Volatility in quantum computing stocks, IBM, cybersecurity stocks, bitcoin and other digital assets, gold, banks, etc.

Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

In 2026, markets discover that sudden culture shifts can move macro. A single wedding – Swift and Kelce – tips a generation out of doomscrolling and into backyards, marriages, and baby carriages. Fertility and household formation booms. Economists coin a new phrase with a smile: the Swiftie Put.

Market impact: Negative for social media stocks, positive for everything homebuilding/DIY/décor, luxury, wedding venues, destination/travel

Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

In politics, the aggravated partisanship of recent years is suddenly upended after the ugly partisan shenanigans in the US midterm elections shock the silent majority of independents into demanding reform and a strengthening of democratic institutions. Trump stays Trump, but America begins to move on.

Market impact: Rise in US Treasuries (lower yields), decline in social media stocks, crypto, gold, and silver.

Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

In medicine, GLP-1 obesity drugs in pill form transform human and even pet health. Waistlines shrink, lifespans stretch, and all food companies race to reinvent themselves for a lighter world.

Market impact: Fast fashion does well as more people need to replace whole wardrobes. Winners and losers emerge in food producers, restaurants, and pet food makers. Healthcare and veterinary stocks rally as GLP-1 adoption broadens.

SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

Above the atmosphere, capital markets discover their next frontier. A SpaceX IPO valuation clears a trillion dollars and turns “space economy” from slogan to spreadsheet. Orbital manufacturing and lunar projects migrate from science fiction to investment committee.

Market impact: Rocket companies join the fun, Teledyne, Microchip Technology.

A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

Back on Earth, an AI model becomes a Fortune 500 CEO, executing without ego and forcing boards to consider the unthinkable: a human-machine partnership at the top.

Market impact: AI infrastructure, cloud, and governance-tech firms continue to surge, insurers and auditors reinvent coverage for algorithmic management. Investors at first assign a new governance-risk premium to any company run by code.

Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

Geopolitics, never far from the tape in recent years, tests the monetary order as Beijing rolls out a gold-linked offshore yuan for redenomination of its trade. The dollar remains a king, but not the king.

Market impact: Gold advances above $6,000, USD/CNH heads below 5.0, US Treasury yields rise on foreign selling. The “golden yuan” becomes a durable second global anchor, not replacing the dollar, but ending its monopoly.

Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

While carefully constructed and prompted AI may help run a company, beneath the buzzwords, a humbling reckoning unfolds: dumb AI, or poorly governed agents and “agentic” automations, misfire en masse, generating a trillion-dollar cleanup and a new profession of “AI janitors” to disinfect the codebase of modern life.

Market impact: Cybersecurity, audit, and consulting firms see surging revenues, valuations of highly autonomous AI platforms face pressure, and investors rotate toward companies offering resilience, oversight, and human control.

"Is smooth sailing the new outrageous? Saxo releases its annual Outrageous Predictions for 2026" was originally created and published by Retail Banker International, a GlobalData owned brand.

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