Bills playoff picture: What Buffalo needs to make the postseason and win AFC East

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A lot shifted in the AFC playoff picture last week. One thing didn't: the Buffalo Bills' seed.

Buffalo's road win over the Pittsburgh Steelers kept the Bills locked into the No. 7 seed, the final AFC wild-card position. A loss would've dropped them to No. 9 and pushed them out of the postseason field.

Every team in the AFC East won in Week 13, including the top-seeded New England Patriots. The Patriots improved to 11-2 after Monday night's win over the New York Giants and hold a 2.5-game lead over Buffalo.

Despite the gap, the Bills' AFC East title hopes are alive. The path is narrow and hinges on Buffalo winning in Foxborough in two weeks.

How the Bills could win the AFC East

Buffalo must win at New England on Dec. 14 to keeps its division championship hopes alive — and would still need to keep winning while the Patriots lose at least once more.

If the Patriots beat the Bills in Week 15, New England clinches the AFC East and ends the Bills' streak of five consecutive division titles.

How the Patriots can clinch the AFC East

New England has a bye in Week 14 and cannot win the AFC East this week.

The Patriots can capture the AFC East title by beating Buffalo in Week 15. That is the earliest and simplest clinching scenario.

New England defeated Buffalo 23-20 on on Oct. 5. If the Patriots sweep the season series, the worst they can finish is 12-5, and the best Buffalo can do is 12-5, giving New England the head-to-head sweep.

Does Buffalo have the tiebreaker against New England?

Not currently.

1. Head-to-head: Advantage Patriots, but the teams meet again in Week 15.

2. Division record: Patriots (3-0) lead the Bills (2-2). New England still plays each AFC East opponent once. Buffalo still plays New England and the New York Jets.

Bills odds to make playoffs

Buffalo has a 91% chance to make the playoffs, according to NFL.com.

Are the Bills in the playoffs?

Not yet. No team in the NFL as secured a playoff spot.

Bills playoff scenarios

The New York Times' Playoff Simulator shows that if the Bills win a single game the rest of the season they have at least a 95% chance to make the postseason. Two wins gives them a playoff likelihood of at least 98% in every scenario.

AFC playoff picture entering Week 14

1. New England Patriots (11-2)

2. Denver Broncos (10–2)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)

4. Baltimore Ravens (6-6)

5. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)

6. Indianapolis Colts (8–4)

7. Buffalo Bills (8-4)

8. Houston Texans (7–5)

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)

10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)

11. Miami Dolphins (5–7)

12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)

13. New York Jets (3-9)

14. Cleveland Browns (3-9)

AFC East standings

1. New England Patriots (11-2)

2. Buffalo Bills (8-4)

3. Miami Dolphins (4-7)

4. New York Jets (3-9)

Tiebreakers that matter for Buffalo

Bills advantages:

• Own head-to-head wins over Ravens, Steelers and Chiefs

• AFC record is 5-3

Bills disadvantages:

• Texans own the head-to-head tiebreaker

• Patriots currently own head-to-head and division record tiebreakers

Buffalo Bills remaining schedule

• Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 7: vs. Cincinnati, 1 p.m., FOX

• Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 14 at New England Patriots, 1 p.m., CBS

• Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 21 at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m., CBS

• Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 28 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m., FOX

• Week 18: Jan. 3-4, vs. New York Jets, TBD

How NFL playoff seeding works

Seven teams in each conference make the postseason.

• Seeds 1-4: Division winners

• Seeds 5-7: Wild-card teams with the best records

• A wild-card team cannot be seeded above a division winner

• The No. 1 seed receives a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills playoff picture: Buffalo's AFC East chances and playoff scenarios