The Rumor Mill: Ponce, Meyers, Lowe, Senga, Imai

Here’s the latest from the hot stove of the MLB offseason:

There continues to be “considerable interest” in Astros CF Jake Meyers, according to The Athletic. Houston seeks a controllable major-league starter in a deal for the defensive standout coming off a breakthrough offensive campaign that saw Meyers hit .292 with a .354 OBP, both career highs. Meyers also posted a .727 OPS, his best OPS since he first came up with the Astros in 2021. Meyers stole 16 bases and scored 53 runs, both career bests as well.

Teams reported to be seeking upgrades in centerfield include the Phillies, Mets, Rays, Orioles, Diamondbacks and Royals.

On Friday, we posted about the Astros being reportedly close to a deal with KBO pitcher Ryan Weiss.

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/general/71067/astros-close-to-signing-american-kbo-pitcher

Today, there is news about his teammate he shared the top of the Eagles rotation with, Cody Ponce.

Ponce is coming off his best career season in the KBO (or any league) going 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 252 K in 180.2 IP, earning the KBO MVP. He is the first American pitcher to win the “quadruple crown” in the KBO, leading the league in wins, win percentage, ERA, and Strikeouts (which he set the KBO single season record).

Ponce has not pitched in the majors since 2021, when he went 0-6 with a 7.04 ERA for the Pirates. He pitched in Japan the next three seasons.

In 2022 he was 3-5 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.104 WHIP for the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters, and followed that with a 4-5, 3.66 ERA season in 2023, however his WHIP spiked to 1.471 as his hit rate exploded from 7.5 H/9 to 10.3 H/9.

In 2024, Ponce struggled with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan, going 3-6 with a 6.72 ERA and 1.612 WHIP. His hit rate rose again, this time to 12.4 H/9.

His remarkable 2025 season for Hanwha in the KBO also brought a career high in innings pitched and saw hit hit rate drop all the way to 6.4 H/9.

According to Eno Sarris of The Athletic, Ponce has added 2 MPH to his fastball, which in turn has increased the velocity and effectiveness of his breaking pitches. He also developed a new pitch, a splitter, that became his wipeout pitch. He threw it more than any other secondary pitch and it led him to a “strikeout percentage that was better than any of the other pitchers who have come over from KBO.“

His monster season has led to reports that he could command a deal in the $30-40M range over 3 years, a significant increase over the previous high contract for a KBO pitcher – the 2-year, $15M deal signed by Erick Fedde in 2024 with the White Sox.

Even at the increased dollar value, if the velocity increases and quality of his splitter hold, getting a mid-to-back end rotation starter on the free agent market at $10-13M per year is a solid deal, and perhaps one that would fit the Astros current methodology of seeking what I call “value starters”.

It’s been widely reported now that the Astros are interested in Brendan Donovan of the Cardinals…

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/houston-astros-news/71037/astros-rumors-donovan-gray-contreras-walker-paredes

…but another player the Astros have previously had interest in is also now potentially available, and that is 2B Brandon Lowe of the Rays.

Lowe is a left-handed hitting power bat that plays second base, and it seems his time with the Rays could finally be nearing an end, as he is due to earn $11.5M in 2026 in the final year of his contract.

Lowe hit 31 HR last season, a number that the Astros would love to have in their lineup, but it also came with a paltry .307 OBP, something the Astros are clearly looking to improve on. Lowe hit a respectable .256 and a strong .785 OPS, demonstrating that his bat has significant value. For his career, he is a .247 hitter with a .326 OBP and .807 OPS. He posted 31 HR and 83 RBI in 507 AB in 2025.

Could Lowe be a fallback option for the Astros if the miss on Donovan? He makes nearly double what Donovan will make in 2026, and acquiring Lowe would cement the Altuve in LF experiment in for at least 2026 unless the Astros moved on from both Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker and played Lowe at first base, where he has played well defensively in limited opportunity. That, however, would seem unlikely, at least for now.

Mets starter Kodai Senga has told the team that he wants to stay in New York, despite the rumors around him that the team is looking to offload him. Senga has a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to 10 teams, but does not have sole control of whether or not he is moved.

The Athletic had previously reported that Senga was drawing trade interest from around the league, although the Mets would be selling low on him.

Senga, entering his age-33 season, is still owed 2 years and $30M on his contract, and has a conditional option for 2028 at $15M if he were to require Tommy John surgery or have a right elbow injury that would keep him on the IL for over 130 days. It increased by $2M if he wins Cy Young, and by $1M if he finished between 2-5 in Cy Young Award balloting.

Senga finished 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting in 2023 and 7th in Cy Young voting, with a 12-7 record, 2.98 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in his first year in Flushing. He also posted a strong 10.9 K/9 rate.

Senga would only make one start in 2024, as a shoulder capsule injury and calf injury would conspire to cost him nearly the entire season.

In 2025, Senga made 22 starts, going 7-6 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.315 WHIP. His strikeouts were down from 10.9 K/9 in 2023 to 8.7 K/9 in 2025. His season ERA of 3.02 looks very strong, but Senga’s season was a tale of two halves – pre-injury and post-injury.

Senga suffered a hamstring injury that landed him on the IL on June 12, 2025. To that point, he had made 13 starts and led the NL with a 1.47 ERA. After returning on July 11, Senga came nowhere near his pre-injury form. He struggled to a 6.56 ERA through July and August and was sent to Triple-A September 5th. He only pitched 13.1 IP the rest of the season in the minors.

Senga is an interesting buy-low candidate. His $15M salary is a solid value for a mid-rotation pitcher and he has the upside of being more than that. The Astros are known for getting the most out of pitchers, but Senga’s injury history should be concerning. While he hasn’t had elbow issues, he did have a shoulder capsule strain that cost him three months and then he’s had a calf strain and a hamstring injury. The last thing the Astros need is an injury prone pitcher when they have been overwhelmed with an avalanche of pitching injuries the past few seasons, not to mention the Astros return to play woes. The possibility is highly intriguing however, from the buy low standpoint. If they could get Senga for a great deal and optimize him, he could be a huge value.

According to Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic, the San Francisco Giants are not going to enter the bidding from Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai.

Imai, who has stated he prefers to beat the Dodgers rather than join them, is expected to land a 9-figure contract this offseason, and is considered to have potentially the highest upside of any starter on the market. He also comes with a posting fee.

For a posted player who signs a deal of $50M+, the signing team must also pay a posting fee of 20% of the first $25 million, PLUS 17.5% of the next $25 million, PLUS 15% of the value exceeding $50 million. So on a $100M contract, the posting fee is nearly $17M.

Imai is only 27 years old, and while he projects as a mid-rotation starter, he offers more upside to that of a strong #2 starter. You can get a quick scouting report on Imai here:

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/general/70986/are-any-posted-players-from-japan-fits-for-astros