Texas Has a Strong Case for the College Football Playoff

The College Football Playoff selection committee has an extremely difficult job each year.

Throughout the CFP’s history, whether it’s been four teams or 12, there’s often a team that deserves a chance to compete for a championship that doesn’t get it. The committee determines who gets those chances.

This year, barring an upset by BYU over Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game, five teams will fight over one spot, but among all of them, Texas should be the program to prevail. 

College Football Playoff Layout

This will be the second year that the CFP will include 12 teams, but the format will be different from last season.

Last year, the best four Division I FBS conference champions were the top four seeds and earned a bye. The other eight teams included the fifth-best conference champion and seven at-large bids.

This year, the pool will include the same teams, but in a different order. The five best conference champions will once again make up five of the 12 teams, but that accomplishment will no longer give a free pass into the four best seeds.

Who’s In The Mix?

Judging from the most recent AP Poll, it appears that teams ranked one through eight and Alabama will most likely make the playoffs. However, that only includes two or three conference champions, depending on the outcome of the Big 12 title game.

If BYU wins, they would be in along with two other conference champions, completing the 12. If No. 5 Texas Tech wins as expected, two other conference champions will be in, leaving one playoff spot remaining.

Why would Notre Dame’s spot be in question despite being ranked above Alabama? Alabama is in the SEC Championship game, and even if they lose, they’ve had a successful season. They hold wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Georgia and Vanderbilt are currently top-13 teams, and Tennessee was ranked within the top 20 as recently as two days ago. In addition, Alabama has had the 11th-hardest strength of schedule in the country.

On the other hand, Notre Dame faced three opponents who are currently ranked in the top 20. They lost two, and the victory was over now No. 17 USC, which doesn’t compare to Georgia or Vanderbilt. Notre Dame’s strength of schedule ranks 42nd in the country.

Other than Notre Dame, the teams that remain in the conversation include BYU, Miami, Texas and Vanderbilt. So why Texas?

Texas vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame’s aforementioned flaws stand out, especially in comparison to Texas’. The Longhorns had the eighth-toughest schedule in the nation, the toughest of anyone in the playoff-bubble conversation. Did Texas lose to unranked Florida? Yes (yikes). But their two other losses were to very respectable opponents: Georgia and Ohio State. 

The Longhorns were the only team to give Ohio State a run for their money this season, despite Arch Manning’s struggles. In fact, without the Buckeyes’ goal-line stand and Arch’s late drive-costing misfire to open receiver Ryan Wingo, Texas may have won. The Longhorns’ 336 total yards to the Buckeyes’ 203 shouldn’t be overlooked either.

Some may point out that Texas’ loss to Georgia was an embarrassing blowout, but it was closer than most think. It was 14-10 Georgia heading into the fourth quarter, but with a touchdown, a successful surprise onside kick and another touchdown to follow, the momentum swung too far in Georgia’s direction.

While this game was embarrassing for the Longhorns regardless, it wasn’t a full-on massacre like the score indicates.

Most importantly, Texas has collected wins Notre Dame can’t match. Texas defeated undefeated Texas A&M on Friday by 10, while Notre Dame lost to A&M early in the season. Texas also defeated Oklahoma by 17 and Vanderbilt by three earlier this season. All three teams are currently ranked in the top 13.

Sark Defends His Team Well

After the Longhorns’ win Friday, coach Steve Sarkisian put it very well. Texas would undoubtedly be ranked higher if they were 10-2 because they chose to play an easy opponent instead of Ohio State to start the season. They shouldn’t be punished for their courage, and if the committee leaves them out of the playoffs, top colleges will stop scheduling competitive games altogether to start the season.

Furthermore, Vanderbilt was a top 10 team when they faced Texas, meaning the Longhorns are the first team since the 2019 LSU Tigers to beat three top-10 ranked teams in the same season. Many consider that LSU team to be the best college football team of the century, if not all-time. And Notre Dame, last year’s runner-up, lost to Northern Illinois at home last season. Is losing to Florida really worse than that?

What About 11-1 BYU?

11-1 is one of the best records in the sport, that’s for sure. But BYU had the 35th-toughest schedule in the country, far from eighth, where Texas is. BYU did beat now No. 15 Utah, but only by three. In their only top-10 matchup this season, Texas Tech mauled the Cougars, 29-7.

And Vandy?

Vanderbilt is 10-2, which is better than Texas’s 9-3. They also earned a very respectable 45-24 win over Tennessee on Saturday. But they lack any big signature victories, and Texas beat them when the two teams played. Vanderbilt has a very respectable case, but the head-to-head matchup gives Texas the edge.

The Only Respectable Case For Another Team

The Miami Hurricanes have a strong argument to make the playoffs as well. At 10-2, they beat Notre Dame, and in fact, many people question how the Canes could possibly be ranked below the Fighting Irish. They suffered a one-possession loss to Louisville and lost to SMU in overtime. Both teams are unranked, but Miami does have that win over Notre Dame, and decimated Pittsburgh over the weekend. It was a statement win over a team that would have otherwise played for the ACC championship.

Miami also destroyed Florida 26-7, the same team that beat Texas. Ultimately, it is close, but Texas should get the nod after their impressive showing at Ohio State and wins over Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Texas A&M. 

Final Rankings

The argument for Texas only holds up if Texas Tech beats BYU next weekend, and thus, a playoff spot opens up. If this occurs, and Texas gets in, the Longhorns will be the No. 10 seed, ahead of the worst two conference champions. Miami, Vanderbilt, BYU and Notre Dame should be the first four out, in that order.

But in the end, it’s up to the selection committee. They’ve done a good job the past two years. Can they get it right again?

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