Ravens’ updated playoff probabilities entering Week 14

Despite a crushing loss to the Bengals on Thanksgiving, the Ravens are still favored by several forecasters to win the AFC North and make the playoffs.

Here are the current divisional standings:

1. Baltimore Ravens (6-6)

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)

3. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)

4. Cleveland Browns (3-9)

The Ravens and the Steelers have yet to play, so the head-to-head tiebreaker does not yet apply. They share the same in-division record (2-1), but Baltimore’s record against common opponents (6-3) puts them ahead of Pittsburgh (5-4). The Steelers, however, are a game up against in-conference opponents, the fourth tiebreaker.

And here’s the beauty of the NFL schedule: for the last five weeks of the season, each team plays the other twice as well as common opponents in the division and both conferences. In other words, both teams control their own destiny, and each one’s path to the playoff goes right through the other.

So, what are their chances?

Let’s start with Next Gen Stats. Their model, which simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times, places the Ravens’ playoff probability at 70%. The Steelers are at 29%, and the Bengals are far behind at 2%. The Browns are still technically in playoff contention, but their chances are less than 1%.

The Athletic’s predictive model, which does 100,000 simulations, gives the Ravens a 64% chance to make the playoffs and to win the division. The Steelers are at 30% and 29%, respectively, while the Bengals are at 6% in both categories. Once again, the Browns are below 1%. While a first-round bye is virtually out of reach, Baltimore’s Super Bowl chances are 4%, the highest of any six-loss team and tied with the Colts (8-4) and the 49ers (9-3) for the seventh-highest in the league.

PFSN (formerly Pro Football Network) also simulated the remaining NFL schedule 100,000 times, but their model is significantly lower on the Ravens. They have just a 40.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 40.1% chance of making the playoffs, while the Steelers are at 52.5% and 51.9%, respectively. The Bengals’ playoff and divisional odds are placed at 8.1% and 7.9%, respectively. PFSN also gives the Ravens a 1.3% chance of winning the Super Bowl, tied for 16th with the Kansas City Chiefs.

And, just for fun, here are the Ravens’ playoff betting odds (via FanDuel):

• To win the AFC North: -195 (66.1% implied probability)

• To make the playoffs: -200 (66.7%)

• To miss the playoffs: +160 (38.5%)

• To win the AFC: +700 (12.5%)

• To win the Super Bowl: + 1600 (5.9%)

It’s worth noting that oddsmaking is a somewhat secretive process that is less focused on predicting the right outcome and more on creating lines that result in the most profit. To set their odds, sportsbooks use predictive models while also factoring in risk analysis, betting patterns, and the ‘vig.’ As a result, implied probability represents something very different than the models described above. Books set lines at odds they will take bets on, not ones that reflect their predictions of the future. As with most things, it’s all about the money!

What do you think of the Ravens’ playoff probabilities? Are they too high or too low? Let us know by joining the discussion in the comments!