Monday Musings: The edge in criteria are undeniable regarding Miami vs. Notre Dame, but the selection committee won’t care

Happy victory Monday, SOTUers. Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving holiday.

The Miami Hurricanes made it a good one for all us, bludgeoning Pittsburgh on Saturday afternoon 38-7. The Canes looked absolutely dominant and have shown the part of a playoff team for the last four weeks.

So, what does that mean for their College Football Playoff hopes? Well, I’ll tell you what it should mean, at least.

1) The playoff criteria are outlined and crystal clear. And Miami checks those boxes or matches Notre Dame in literally every single one of them.

Here’s the list on the playoff committee’s own website:

Alright, so here we go.

Strength of schedule: Notre Dame 42, Miami 44. Want to go with its twin sister, strength of record? Notre Dame 13, Miami 14. So, call that a wash.

Head-to-head competition. We all know that result. Miami 27, Notre Dame 24. Miami led by 14 points and held the lead for the majority of the game.

Comparative outcomes of common opponents. Ok. Miami and Notre Dame played Pitt, NC State, Stanford and Syracuse. Miami won by a larger margin in 3 of those 4 games with the exception of Syracuse. And I know it says margin of victory isn’t incentivized there, but the committee seems to be a little lax on following their own rules, so I’m putting that in there. Sue me.

Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players, etc. Irrelevant. We don’t have a Florida State or Ole Miss situation here.

And that’s it. Miami matches or clears in every one of the committee’s own stated criteria. There’s no resume gap between these teams. THEY. ARE. DAMNED. NEAR. EQUAL.

2) Oh, want to go beyond the stated criteria and cry about which team has “controlled the game”, has been “more efficient”, and looks better? Let’s do that, because I hear that a lot.

These two teams are nearly identical in overall efficiency, per ESPN. According to the four-letter network, Notre Dame checks in at #5. Miami checks in at #7.

3) There’s just one question left about this whole mess: does the selection committee have the guts to do something that fewer and fewer people are willing to do nowadays – change their minds publicly?

I strongly believe that’s a no, unfortunately. Weeks ago, this group proved they think there was a sizable gap between the two programs, and they’ve shown they believe Notre Dame is one of the best teams in the country. I don’t think they will apply their own criteria now and truly reevaluate the situation to upset that belief while potentially putting the Irish in a position to miss the playoff. I just don’t.

I feel like history has shown that. Bigger jumps are made in the earlier weeks, but when the final rankings start to get closer, the committee has already shown where they believe teams are in the pecking order, and they’ve shown they believe Notre Dame is better, or at least more deserving to get into the playoff, than Miami.

4) Believing Notre Dame is better than Miami because of a supposed “eye test” or gut feeling – something the committee apparently does – is a fallacy that the Canes have already disproved this year.

Everyone and their mother said Miami would lose the opener. Vegas. The media. Many neutral observers/fans. Social media chatter. Notre Dame was going to win. And then Miami absolutely controlled the Irish physically and settled the issue on the field. Now, people want to act like it didn’t happen or would be different this time. Especially as well as Miami has played the last month, it’s silly to even entertain that argument as a reason why Notre Dame should be in over Miami.

5) But that is what they’re going to hang their hat on. That and Miami’s two apparently bad losses to *checks notes* two eight-win teams.

While Alabama has a lopsided loss to a 5-7 FSU team. Either losses matter that much or they don’t. That talking point – which is not in the criteria, by the way – shouldn’t be applied as the committee sees fit, but that’s what they do.

Just an absolute shame what’s going to happen on Tuesday night. A complete and total crime.