This Is Palantir’s Price Prediction Heading Into 2026

• StockStory Top Pick PLTR -0.02%

Quick Read

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR) shares are up 117% year-to-date but down over 20% from October highs near $208.

• Palantir’s Q3 revenue hit $1.18B with U.S. commercial revenue exploding 121% to $306M.

• The company secured a $10B U.S. Army contract for data software over 10 years.

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Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) has ridden the artificial intelligence (AI) wave to new heights in 2025, with shares climbing over 117% year-to-date amid explosive revenue growth and major government contracts.

Yet, after peaking near $208 in late October, the stock has pulled back below $165, down over 20% from those highs, with broader market rotations away from tech and valuation worries contributing to the stall. Prediction markets, though, offer a window into trader sentiment on which way they expect the stock to go. What emerges is no clear consensus: bettors expect a range-bound finish to 2025, with upside potential building for 2026 as AI adoption deepens.

A Year-End Tight Squeeze

Decentralized platform Polymarket lets users bet on real-world outcomes, including stock prices, through yes/no contracts that trade like shares priced from $0.01 to $1.00. The probability of an outcome equals the yes share price.

For Palantir, the market "Will Palantir (PLTR) close above ___ end of December?" features thresholds from $154 to $178, resolving based on the official Yahoo Finance close on Dec. 31.

Today, odds hover around 50% for beating almost every price level -- $154 at 50% (yes at 97¢), $160 at 48% (91¢), $164 at 53% (99¢), $170 at 52% (99¢), and $178 at 52% (99¢). Trading volume, however, sits at just $10 across markets, signaling low liquidity and few participants.

But the even split also reflects trader caution. No strong consensus points to a breakout; instead, bets cluster near the current $169 price, implying a close around $165 to $170 per share. Extreme moves -- like above $178 or below $154 -- carry below 50% odds, underscoring expectations of stability through year-end amid thin holiday trading and macro uncertainties.

What Drove Palantir's 2025 Surge and Recent Stall?

Palantir's third-quarter results last month showcased its AI prowess. Total revenue hit $1.18 billion, up 63% year-over-year and beating estimates of $1.09 billion. U.S. commercial revenue exploded 121% to $306 million, fueled by the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), which integrates data analytics for enterprise decision-making. Government revenue grew 52% to $486 million, anchored by a landmark $10 billion U.S. Army contract for data software over 10 years.

Customer count jumped 45% to a record, with commercial adding 49%, and remaining deal value rose 91% to $8.6 billion. Adjusted operating margins hit 51%, free cash flow reached $540 million, and net income was $476 million. CEO Alex Karp highlighted AIP's role, saying, "We've made it possible for retail investors to achieve rates of return previously limited to the most successful venture capitalists."

The company raised full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $4.396 billion to $4.4 billion, a 45% increase, and Q4 to $1.33 billion, up 61% year-over-year. U.S. commercial alone is on track to more than double annually.

Despite this, shares dipped 8% after earnings on valuation fears. At $166 per share, Palantir trades at 166 times forward sales -- above even peers with their own sky-high valuations like Snowflake (NASDAQ:SNOW) at 155x or Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG) at 68x.

Critics, including investor Michael Burry's recent short position, warn of an AI bubble. November marked Palantir's worst month in two years, with shares down amid sector rotations. Broader pressures included the U.S. government shutdown threatening contracts and competition from open-source AI tools eroding pricing power.

The 2026 Outlook

Polymarket's year-end view aligns with near-term caution, but 2026 looks brighter. The $8.6 billion remaining deal value and $2.8 billion in Q3 total contract value (up 151%) provide visibility. Analysts project 2026 revenue at $5.5 billion to $6 billion, assuming 30% to 40% growth as AIP scales globally.

If execution holds, shares could reach $250 to $300 per share by mid-2026, implying 50% to 75% upside from here. Risks include execution slips or a recession curbing enterprise spending, but Palantir's 84% gross margins and $2 billion trailing free cash flow offer a buffer. As Karp noted, detractors underestimate the "substantive growth" in enterprise AI.

Prediction markets capture the crowd's wisdom short-term, but Palantir's fundamentals suggest it is still a long-term winner.

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