Starmer’s priorities have changed. He needs to be honest about why

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The prime minister’s claim that he always wanted to scrap the two-child benefit cap will cast doubt on his attempt to reassure voters - and his own cabinet colleagues - that he and the chancellor told the truth about tax rises, writes political editor David Maddox

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Make no mistake: Sir Keir Starmer’s appearance on Monday morning was not just a bid to talk up the Budget. It was a fight for his political life.

After days of intense political debate about whether Rachel Reeves lied about the state of the country’s finances in the run-up to the Budget, the prime minister is grappling with a serious trust issue which could now derail his government - and may well bring forward the date that Labour MPs try to oust him.

At the speech on Monday morning, most of the media questions were quite rightly focussed on whether Sir Keir and the chancellor deliberately misled the markets, media, public - and their own cabinet colleagues - by failing to highlight that the financial picture had significantly improved.

But other key parts of the speech will prompt questions about how honest the PM is being about his government’s intentions.

For starters, Sir Keir focussed much of his speech on ending the two-child benefit cap. He described the decision as “a matter of pride” and said it was a “moral mission” to end child poverty.

He set the speech in a community centre and visited a nursery beforehand, underlining this point.

There is no doubt that the vast majority of Labour MPs agree with his assessment on ending the two-child benefit cap. But they - along with everyone who follows the ebb and flow of politics - know that the prime minister had a different take on the policy when he came to power a mere 18 months ago.

Back in July, Sir Keir and Ms Reeves were telling the country and their own party that, as nice as it would be to end the two-child benefit cap, it was “unaffordable”. A bit like the assessment they made a few weeks later on continuing winter fuel payments for pensioners.

Not only was it unaffordable, but seven Labour MPs who backed an SNP amendment to end it were suspended from the party and not allowed back in for more than a year - if at all.

Yet Sir Keir is now saying that ending child poverty and the two-child benefit cap was always the “moral mission” of his government. At the same time, his government’s “number 1 mission” of economic growth - much talked about when they were first elected - was barely a footnote in the same speech.

There are clearly reasons to be sceptical about whether the prime minister really means what he’s saying on this.

The fact is that - a bit like the ill-fated winter fuel decision - the prime minister has been forced to U-turn by a party he has lost control of. The welfare rebellion before the summer marked the end to his personal authority - while the briefing by Downing Street sources that health secretary Wes Streeting is planning a coup underlined that they think he is in real trouble.

So, what has changed in 18 months? The most obvious explanation is that the prime minister needs to persuade fellow Labour MPs to stick with him.

It all looks like political expediency, which is the central charge to the extraordinary press conference on November 4 given by Ms Reeves in which she signalled that a downgrade in the public finances by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) meant that taxes would have to rise.

In a second point of note, Sir Keir repeated the claim that the Budget did not break Labour’s manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance.

His argument is that, by leaving the rates alone, they have technically stuck to the pledge which was front and centre in their manifesto.

But Ms Reeves herself said in her Budget last year that freezing the thresholds where people start to pay income tax rates would indeed break the manifesto commitment. That is now exactly what Labour has done - and it will hurt millions who will pay more tax as a result.

Against this background, it becomes hard for the prime minister to persuade people he is being entirely open about the allegations of deliberate misinformation by him and his chancellor ahead of the Budget.

Certainly some of his own ministers, who are briefing heavily against the PM, think they are guilty of misleading - and, at worst, lying - about the true state of the UK finances.

The questions now are whether Sir Keir and Ms Reeves can survive and for how long. One minister warned that there is “an end of days” feel about this government. The Christmas break cannot come soon enough for Sir Keir.

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