NFL playoff picture: Week 13 upends the standings

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Here is how the NFL playoff picture stands ahead of Giants-Patriots, as the Bears move to the top spot in the NFC

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Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season delivered some of the biggest surprises of the campaign to date.

As a result, the playoff picture certainly looks different than it did a week ago.

We have a new team atop the NFC standings, a new team atop the AFC South, and if the playoffs were to begin this weekend, several preseason Super Bowl favorites would be watching the postseason from home.

Let’s break it all down.

What is the NFC playoff picture?

Here is the current state of play in the NFC:

1. Chicago Bears (9-3)2. Los Angeles Rams (9-3)3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4)4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)5. Seattle Seahawks (9-3)6. Green Bay Packers (8-3-1)7. San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

8. Detroit Lions (7-5)9. Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1)10. Carolina Panthers (7-6)11. Atlanta Falcons (4-8)12. Minnesota Vikings (4-8)13. Washington Commanders (3-8)14. Arizona Cardinals (3-9) - e15. New Orleans Saints (2-10) - e16. New York Giants (2-10) - e

Yes, you read that correctly.

If the playoffs began today, Ben Johnson and the Chicago Bears would have the No. 1 seed, and the first-round bye, in the NFC. Chicago’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Friday, coupled with the Los Angeles Rams’ loss to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, moved both teams to 9-3 on the season.

Chicago has a tiebreaker advantage over the Rams right now based on a better record in NFC games, 6-2 versus 4-3.

Philadelphia now slots in at No. 3 in the NFC, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers remain in the fourth spot thanks to their win over the Arizona Cardinals. While the Seattle Seahawks’ win over the Minnesota Vikings improved their record to 9-3, even with the Rams, Los Angeles still leads the NFC West due to their win over Seattle a few weeks ago.

Thursday Night Football might feel like a playoff game this week, and with good reason. When the Dallas Cowboys visit the Detroit Lions later this week it will be a matchup of two teams currently out of a playoff spot.

Here are the hypothetical Wild Card matchups based on the current standings:

• No. 7 San Francisco at No. 2 Los Angeles
• No. 6 Green Bay at No. 3 Philadelphia
• No. 4 Tampa Bay at No. 5 Seattle

The Cardinals, Saints, and Giants have been eliminated from playoff contention.

What is the AFC playoff picture?

Here is how things stand in the AFC after Sunday’s games:

1. Denver Broncos (10-2)2. New England Patriots (10-2)3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)4. Baltimore Ravens (6-6)5. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)6. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)7. Buffalo Bills (8-4)

8. Houston Texans (7-5)9. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)11. Miami Dolphins (5-7)12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)13. New York Jets (3-9)14. Cleveland Browns (3-9)15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-10) - e16. Tennessee Titans (1-11) - e

Let’s start at the bottom of the conference and work our way up.

Both the Las Vegas Raiders and the Tennessee Titans were eliminated this week.

While the Houston Texans improved to 7-5 with a big win over the Indianapolis Colts, they remain on the outside looking in for now. Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Kansas City Chiefs have matching 6-6 records, but the Steelers have a tiebreaker advantage thanks to a 5-3 record in AFC play, compared with Kansas City’s 3-4 conference record.

The Steelers have the same record as the Baltimore Ravens, but Baltimore’s record in common games gives them the tiebreaker edge at the moment.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are now in first place in the AFC South. Both the Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts have 8-4 records, and matching 2-1 records in division play. That moves the AFC South to the next tiebreaker, record in common games, and Jacksonville has that tiebreaker right now.

That drops the Colts into a Wild Card spot along with two more 8-4 teams, the Los Angeles Chargers and the Buffalo Bills. Right now, the Chargers are in as the No. 5 seed thanks to a 7-2 record in conference play. Indianapolis has a 6-3 record in their AFC games, so they clock in at No. 6 ahead of the Bills and their 5-3 AFC record.

Then there are the two teams at the top, who enjoy a little breathing room. The Denver Broncos moved into the No. 1 spot thanks to their win over the Washington Commanders, which pulled them level with the New England Patriots at 10-2. Both teams have 6-2 records in the AFC, but the Broncos currently have a tiebreaker advantage over the Patriots thanks to a better record against common opponents. This year the Broncos and the Patriots will both play the Bengals, the Raiders, the Giants, the Jets, and the Titans.

The Broncos have played all of those opponents already, and have one more game left against the Raiders. Denver is so far 5-0 in those games.

As for New England, they have wins over Tennessee, Cincinnati, and the Jets. They play the Jets one more time, and the Giants later tonight. New England, however, lost to the Raiders back in Week 1, and their record against common opponents is only 3-1 right now.

So for now, the Broncos have the No. 1 seed.

Should the Patriots defeat the Giants tonight, New England would move into the No. 1 spot with an 11-2 record, and Denver would slide to No. 2.

Here are the hypothetical Wild Card matchups:

• No. 7 Buffalo at No. 2 New England
• No. 6 Indianapolis at No. 3 Jacksonville
• No. 5 Los Angeles at No. 4 Baltimore

Again, if New England wins tonight, the Patriots would move into the No. 1 spot, and Denver would slide to No. 2, putting the Broncos in line to play the Bills.

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