Euro-Zone Inflation Near 2% to Seal Deal on ECB Rate Hold

Shoppers pass through Alexanderplatz during Black Friday sales in Berlin, Germany, on Nov. 28.

(Bloomberg) -- A euro-zone inflation reading that’s likely to stay close to 2% should be enough to satisfy officials that they can avoid tweaking interest rates in December.

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Consumer prices probably rose 2.1% in November from a year earlier, according to the median of 29 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey ahead of Tuesday’s release. The underlying measure, which strips out volatile elements such as energy, is seen remaining at 2.4%.

Such readings for the final inflation numbers before the European Central Bank’s Dec. 18 decision might harden the resolve of policymakers to keep borrowing costs unchanged. That would leave them able to focus instead on their pivotal quarterly forecasts, featuring the first outlook stretching as far as 2028.

Officials find themselves in a holding pattern at present, with no clear consensus on what the next move for rates should be. Mixed signals from national reports on Friday might feed that sense of ambiguity, after stronger-than-expected inflation in Germany and Spain was balanced by weaker-than-anticipated numbers for France and Italy.

If there’s any bias within the Governing Council at present, it might be toward scouring the data for upward pressure on price growth. Vice President Luis de Guindos told Bloomberg Television on Nov. 26 that “the risk of undershooting is limited, in my view.” President Christine Lagarde, who’s repeatedly highlighted the good position that policy is currently at, may offer her own perspective in testimony to lawmakers in Brussels on Wednesday.

The unresolved sense of direction from the ECB is being mirrored by conflicting views from economists. Bloomberg Economics, for example, predicts inflation will slow in future months, adding to the case for rate cuts.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“Euro-area inflation will likely remain steady in November at just above the central bank’s 2% target, before resuming a sustained deceleration in December. That may add pressure on the ECB to ease policy next year, even though the Governing Council is currently resisting such a move.”

—Simona Delle Chiaie and David Powell. For full analysis, click here

BNP Paribas, in a recent note, offered a different take. “As we move into 2026, we expect the ECB to see stronger growth and inflation than it currently expects, which should further strengthen the case for a prolonged rate hold,” wrote Paul Hollingsworth, the bank’s head of developed markets economics. “We continue to see the next move as a hike.”

Elsewhere, the Paris-based OECD will release new forecasts on Tuesday, a consumer-price gauge is coming from the US, policymakers in the UK will share their financial-stability assessment, and Brazil may come to the end of its longest streak of growth in decades.

Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

US and Canada

Federal Reserve officials will get a dated reading on their preferred inflation gauge before settling in the following week for their final policy meeting of the year. On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its September income and spending report — long delayed because of the government shutdown.

The figures will include the personal consumption expenditures price index and a core measure that excludes food and energy. Economists project a third-straight 0.2% increase in the core index. That would keep the year-over-year figure hovering just below 3%, a sign that inflationary pressures are stable, yet sticky and above the Fed’s goal.

Against such a backdrop, the debate among officials will largely center on the job market and whether rates should be reduced for a third straight time when policymakers meet Dec. 9-10. Investors see a cut as more likely than not.

Fed policymakers are in their usual pre-meeting quiet period. Still, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett appeared on CBS’ on Sunday, where he touted a positive market response to indications that Donald Trump could pick the next Fed chair before the end of the year — a job that the president’s chief economic adviser is seen as likely to win.

• Read more: Fed Contender Hassett Says Market Is Ready for Trump Chair Pick

While the latest jobs report showed a larger-than-expected rise in payrolls, the gain was concentrated in just a few industries. The unemployment rate ticked up to an almost four-year high, and there’s been a steady drumbeat of layoff news from companies.

Other economic data in the coming week include ADP private employment figures for November, as well as Institute for Supply Management surveys of manufacturers and service providers. The Fed is also scheduled to release September industrial production figures.

• For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the US

In Canada, meanwhile, jobs data for November are expected to show persistent weakness as the US trade war batters key industries and weighs on broader hiring. Some analysts see employers shedding staff after two strong reports made up for losses over the summer.

The Bank of Canada plans to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% as long as the economy and inflation evolve as expected, and it foresees a soft labor market with weak wage growth.

Asia

Asia steps into the first week of December with a packed calendar — led by a wave of manufacturing purchasing manager indexes along with price indicators that will help gauge the region’s momentum into year-end.

Data published Sunday showed that China’s factory activity improved but remained in contraction in November, extending its streak of declines to a record as the country’s economic slowdown deepens.

The tone will also be shaped by remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Monday, with markets alert to any signals on the likelihood of a December rate hike.

Australia begins the week with housing data that’s expected to confirm another month of gains, alongside a run of third-quarter figures — including company profits and inventories — ahead of its GDP release on Wednesday, when South Korea publishes its revised figures too.

Also on Monday, Japan issues a broad set of quarterly indicators, covering capital spending, sales, and profits, that will feed into GDP revisions the following week.

Indonesia reports inflation and trade data. A sweep of PMIs from across Asia — including Australia, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam — will offer an early reading on factory conditions as global demand remains uneven.

The start of the week coincides with the start of December, which means Anna Breman begins her five-year term as New Zealand’s central bank chief. Breman, who is from Sweden, Breman becomes the first female governor and the first foreigner to lead the institution since Englishman Leslie Lefeaux was its inaugural head in 1934.

• Read more: Breman ‘Gifted’ Ideal Economy as She Takes Charge at the RBNZ

Tuesday brings New Zealand’s third-quarter terms of trade, followed by South Korea’s inflation for November. Australia reports its current account balance as well as government spending for the September quarter.

Thursday features Japan’s weekly portfolio-investment flows and Australia’s household-spending for October, together with the latest trade numbers.

Attention turns to India on Friday, where the country’s central bank is expected to lower the repurchase, or repo, rate, making borrowing cheaper for banks and in turn for households and businesses.

Also on Friday, South Korea releases current account data, Japan has household spending, while the Philippines and Taiwan report inflation readings for November. Singapore’s retail-sales report will show whether the improvement seen last quarter carried into October.

• For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Asia

Europe, Middle East, Africa

While the threat of post-budget fiscal turmoil in markets appears to have subsided, the Bank of England is likely to identify other financial stability dangers when it releases its latest risk assessment on Tuesday, accompanied by a press conference with Governor Andrew Bailey.

With several global peers having released their own analyses in the past month, risks ranging from a stock bubble to parallels with the subprime debt crisis might come up. Little more than a month ago, Bailey warned of “alarm bells” in private credit.

In Switzerland, a second monthly reading of inflation barely above zero may arrive on Thursday, keeping pressure on the central bank there. The following day, Sweden’s measure of consumer-price growth targeted by officials is seen weakening drastically, to a six-month low.

Aside from inflation, the neighboring euro-zone will see national data pointing to the state of manufacturing at the start of the fourth quarter. German factory orders, along with French and Spanish industrial production, will come out on Friday.

In Ukraine — the scene of government upheaval after the exit of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s chief of staff — parliament will debate the draft of the 2026 budget on Tuesday amid demands from the International Monetary Fund.

In Poland the following day, the central bank will decide whether to continue with rate cuts after a series of reductions spurred by lower-than-expected inflation. A majority of economists predict it will do so.

Data in South Africa on Tuesday will likely show economic growth slowed slightly in the third quarter, to 0.5% from 0.8%, as the US’s 30% tariff on some exports weighed on manufacturing.

Saudi Arabia is set to announce its 2026 budget the same day, followed by a press conference with Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan.

And the next day in Turkey, data will probably show inflation eased in November to about 31.6%. Central bank Governor Fatih Karahan has said he expects an improvement, fueling expectations for a larger rate cut in December.

• For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEA

Latin America

It was a nice run, but new data may well show that Brazil’s 16-quarter expansion — the longest growth streak for LatAm’s No. 1 economy in the last three decades — ran out of road in the third quarter.

The immediate causes can be boiled down to the central bank’s uncompromising monetary policy and the hit from Trump’s tariffs. A few analysts see the risk of a shallow second-half recession.

A host of reports from Mexico are likely to underscore the widening output gap and loss of momentum in LatAm’s No. 2 economy.

Manufacturing, consumer confidence, private consumption, and jobs added are all telling the same story, though perhaps none quite so dramatically as investment. As with Brazil, Trump’s “America First” trade and tariff policies are worsening an already challenging situation.

The big Andean inflation-targeting economies lead off November’s price reports from the region.

Chile, which also posts GDP-proxy figures, may report a slight cooling in consumer prices that might put a quarter-point rate cut on the table for central bankers who meet on Dec. 16.

In Peru’s megacity capital of Lima, consumer prices may have ticked slightly lower from the current below-target 1.35% — while Colombia could see a hint of deceleration in the year-on-year reading from October’s 5.51%.

• For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin America

--With assistance from Swati Pandey, Laura Dhillon Kane, Vince Golle, Monique Vanek, Robert Jameson, Mark Evans, Beril Akman and Andrew Langley.

(Updates with Hassett in US and Canada section)

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