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At this point, it’s clear that mortgage rates won’t fall to 3% again in the near future, unless something drastic happens. However, many Americans would be happy if rates fell to even 6%. When could rates hit 6%, and should you wait for this decrease before buying a house?
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Discover which mortgage lenders are offering the lowest interest rates this week.
What high mortgage rates mean for home buyers
To understand the full impact of today’s higher rates on buyers and borrowers, it’s essential to consider the steady rise in home prices over the years.
According to Census data, the median home price was $410,800 in Q2 2025. At a 6.26% mortgage rate — the average for a 30-year term as of Nov. 20 — you’d pay about $2,532 per month on a $410,800 mortgage loan.
And that’s just the mortgage principal and interest. It doesn’t even factor in homeowners insurance, mortgage insurance, or property taxes, which also add to your monthly mortgage payment.
If you took out a 30-year mortgage with a 6.26% rate, the money paid toward the principal and interest on a $410,800 loan in just one year would be about $30,384. This accounts for around half of the country’s median annual earnings. (Generally speaking, you shouldn’t spend more than 25% to 35% of your income on housing costs.)
Assuming you’re getting a 30-year loan term, here’s a look at what you’d expect to pay at various interest rates for a median-priced home today:
As you can see, the difference between a sub-6% rate and today’s rates is pretty significant. Interest rates have been hovering in the mid-to-high 6% range for a while. In this scenario, the difference between a 7% rate and a 6% rate would be $270 per month, or $3,240 annually.
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Mortgage rate predictions for 2025 and beyond
Unfortunately for borrowers, mortgage rates are not expected to decline this year. In its November forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projected that the average 30-year mortgage rate will end 2025 at 6.3%. Fannie Mae has not released its November Housing Forecast yet, but its October forecast also predicts a 30-year rate of 6.3%.
The MBA expects rates to remain close to 6.4% in 2026, although Fannie Mae predicts rates will fall to 5.9% by the end of Q4 2026. Whether that happens, though, will depend heavily on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response to it throughout the end of this year and 2026.
“I would expect mortgage rates to stay in the current range until we see what direction inflation is heading,” Jennifer Beeston, executive vice president of national sales at Rate, said via email.
The September Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, was released in late October. The report revealed that annual inflation increased by 3%, up from the 2.9% rate in August. However, the annual increase was on par with economists' expectations. There will likely be no October CPI due to the aftermath of the government shutdown.
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Learn about how inflation affects mortgage rates.
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When will rates drop below 6%?
Looking further out, mortgage rates — at least on conventional loans — probably won’t fall below 6% until late 2026 at the earliest.
“In order for conventional mortgage rates to hit below 6%, we need to see a reduction in inflation as well as increased confidence in the continued containment of inflation, which is hard to currently envision given the macroeconomic and geopolitical outlook,” Beeston said.
Aside from tamped-down inflation, Taylor said unemployment would need to rise too.
“This would prompt the Fed to cut,” he said. “Global investors would also need to prove their belief in U.S. Treasury and mortgage bond safe-haven trades if geopolitical conflicts keep escalating, which would push bond prices up and mortgage rates down.”
Two factors also make things even more unpredictable: a potential replacement for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell mid-next year and the long-term impacts of Trump administration tariffs.
“Sub-6% rates are unlikely until we see the inflation impacts of tariffs,” Taylor said. “But rates in the 6% to 6.5% range are possible ahead of the Fed leadership switch in May 2026.”
How to get a lower mortgage rate in the meantime
Though significantly lower mortgage rates aren’t on the horizon anytime soon, there are still steps you can take to make getting a mortgage more affordable. Here are some tips for getting the lowest mortgage rate possible:
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Improve your credit score: A higher credit score generally qualifies you for lower interest rates, as it indicates you’re a lower risk of defaulting on your mortgage.
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Make a bigger down payment: When you make a larger down payment, your mortgage lender has less money on the line. The company may reward you with a lower interest rate in return.
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Get a rate buydown: Mortgage interest rate buydowns allow you to pay a fee to temporarily reduce your interest rate, usually for the first few years of the loan.
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Buy points: Mortgage discount points lower your interest rate for your entire loan term, but you’ll pay an up-front fee. You’ll pay these fees at closing.
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Shop around: You can also compare loan quotes from several mortgage lenders. Freddie Mac estimates that getting quotes from at least four lenders can save you around $1,200 annually.
You can also explore a shorter loan term or an adjustable-rate mortgage, which may offer lower rates than the traditional, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.
If you’re otherwise ready to buy a home but are holding out for lower mortgage rates, it might not be worth the wait. Interest rates probably won’t plummet anytime soon. And remember, you can always buy a house now to start building equity, then refinance into a lower interest rate later.
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Could mortgage rates go back up to 7%? Signs to watch for.
6% mortgage rates: FAQs
How low will mortgage rates go in 2025?
According to its November Mortgage Finance Forecast, the MBA projects a year-end average rate of 6.3% on 30-year mortgages.
When will mortgage rates drop below 6%?
In its October Housing Forecast, Fannie Mae predicts that mortgage rates will drop to 5.9% by the fourth quarter of 2026. Many factors could change those projections, though, including Federal Reserve moves, inflation, tariffs, and employment data.
Will we ever see a 3% mortgage rate again?
It is unlikely that mortgage rates will fall as low as 3% again. While this did happen in the post-pandemic years, it was largely due to the Federal Reserve’s need to spur economic activity after widespread shutdowns across the nation.
How much is a $300,000 mortgage at 6% for 30 years?
A $300,000, 30-year mortgage loan at a 6% interest rate would cost about $1,799 per month. (This only covers the principal and interest and doesn’t account for insurance or property taxes.) Across the entire 30-year term, you’d pay a total of $347,515 in interest.
Laura Grace Tarpley edited this article.
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