Utah State at Fresno State Preview

Utah State (5-5) heads to Fresno State this Saturday night in a key Mountain West matchup. A win for Utah State would mean a lot to the Mountain West standings, as it would put Boise State right back into a spot for the conference title game. Fresno State is coming off a 24-3 win against Wyoming at home. Carson Conklin threw for 95 yards and a touchdown, and running back Rayshon Luke rushed for 92 yards on 16 carries. The game was tied 10-3 at the half, and Fresno State did not truly take over the game until late in the second half. The Bulldogs struggled on 3rd Down, going 5-16, but the offense did have 216 rushing yards. The Aggies had a strong advantage in the time of possession category, leading 34:05 to 25:55.

Game Information

Date: Saturday, November 22nd

Time: 8:30 P.M. EST

TV: CBS Sports Network

Line (Provided by Draftkings Sportsbook): Fresno State (-3)

Series history: Fresno State and Utah State have been meeting since 1952. Fresno State leads the overall series 19-13, and the Bulldogs also won the last game against the Aggies in 2023, 37-32. From 2007 to 2013, Utah State went on a six-game losing streak to Fresno State. The largest margin of victory for the Aggies came in a 56-14 victory in Fresno. The smallest margin of victory came in 2006, when Utah State won 13-12 in Logan. Utah State will be looking to close the game to 19-14 with a potential win on the road in this matchup.

Three Keys to the Game

1. Stop the Fresno State run game

Fresno State has really struggled to pass the football recently, but has found success in the ground game. The Bulldogs struggle on long third downs because they struggle to pass the football. Utah State needs to make Fresno State one-dimensional and force them into an uncomfortable position. The Aggies have not done a great job of stopping the run game.

2. Play to your strength on offense

There is no reason for Utah State to try to move away from passing the football. Bryson Barnes is a playmaker and is the strength of this offense. The key for the Aggies to win this game is to let Bryson Barnes utilize both his legs and arm to do so. Does that mean that there should be no run attempts for Utah State? Absolutely not. The Aggies will need to find ways to create explosive plays.If the Aggies can limit the penalties and have manageable 3rd Down situations, they will be able to have success on offense.

3. Win the turnover battle

This goes in line with Utah State playing to their strengths. The Aggies do not often turn the ball over, but they do force turnovers. Utah State needs to limit big plays and force Fresno State into uncomfortable throwing situations where the Aggies can play to their takeaway strength. If Fresno State can get some easy 3rd Down conversion looks, then this game is going to be much harder for the Aggies to win on the road as Fresno State looks to stay in competition for a spot in the Mountain West championship game. Winning the turnover battle and being able to get Fresno State off the field would also create more opportunities for Utah State on offense and give their defense more of a rest. This year’s Fresno State offense won’t be able to play from behind, so winning the turnover battle and taking advantage of possessions is going to be critical.

Overall Thoughts and a Score Prediction

With three losses in conference play, it is going to be very difficult for Utah State to get a spot in the championship game. It isn’t a simple beat Boise State and Fresno State, and then you are in the championship. There are three tie-breaker scenarios that Utah State does not own against New Mexico, UNLV, and Hawaii. All Fresno State needs to do to make the championship game is to win out. The Bulldogs have a lot to play for. Fresno State is good at limiting explosive plays and has an experienced pass defense. All of these things point towards Fresno State getting a big win; however, the line remains Fresno State by 3. Bryson Barnes and Utah State redeem themselves after a tough loss to UNLV and manage to get a victory in Fresno.

Score Prediction: Utah State: 28; Fresno State: 17