Andrew CaleySat, November 29, 2025 at 9:37 PM UTC·4 min readAlabama has won five straight Iron Bowls against Auburn, and a sixth would punch the Crimson Tide’s ticket to the SEC title game.
For the Tigers to snap that streak, they’ll need to contain Alabama’s explosive passing attack.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementBut as my Alabama vs. Auburn predictions outline, that’s far easier said than done for War Eagle.
Keep reading for all my college football picks for this classic SEC rivalry game.
Alabama vs Auburn prediction
Alabama vs Auburn best bet: Alabama -5.5 (-110)
It’s as simple as it gets: if the Alabama Crimson Tide win the Iron Bowl, they’ll be playing for the SEC Championship.
Despite a few missteps, Alabama has looked like one of the better teams in the country this season. Ty Simpson looks like one of the best QBs in the country, and the defense has been solid.
Meanwhile, this season didn’t exactly go as planned for the Auburn Tigers. Head coach Hugh Freeze was let go, and the team is 5-6. But none of that would matter if the Tigers were able to pull off the upset against their biggest rival.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAnd they might have something in QB Ashton Daniels, who threw for 353 yards and two touchdowns while running for another 89 yards and two scores in a recent loss to Vanderbilt.
While Auburn may be able to keep this game close for a while, unfortunately, its biggest weakness is Bama’s greatest strength. I’m talking about the Tigers' inability to shut down the pass.
Auburn enters this game ranked 90th in defensive success rate on dropbacks and 56th in opponent EPA per dropback. And now all the Tigers have to do is contend with arguably the best passing attack in the country.
Simpson and his receiving corps, led by Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard, rank eighth in offensive success rate on dropbacks and ninth in EPA per dropback.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Alabama aerial attack will be relentless, and Simpson has too many weapons at his disposal for a struggling Auburn pass defense to contend with. It will not only be the difference in the Tide winning the Iron Bowl, but covering the spread as well.
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Alabama vs Auburn same-game parlay
Alabama wins and covers this game on the strength of Ty Simpson’s arm. He’s gone Over this passing yards line in five of his last eight games vs. Power 4 opponents, and the last time Auburn faced a passing attack like this, it got torched for 377 yards by Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt.
Simpson has a terrific trio of receivers in Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton, but he’s started working tight end Josh Cuevas into the mix more recently as well. Cuevas has 13 catches for 158 yards and has scored two touchdowns over the last three games. I like the value for him to find the end zone once again in the Iron Bowl.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAlabama vs Auburn SGP
Alabama -5.5
Ty Simpson Over 272.5 passing yards
Josh Cuevas TD
Our deep-ball SGP: Coleman gets involved
Cam Coleman has always been a stud, but he went off with his first game with Ashton Daniels as his QB, going for 143 yards and a TD on 10 catches against Vandy.
Alabama vs Auburn SGP
Alabama -5.5
Ty Simpson Over 272.5 passing yards
Josh Cuevas TD
Cam Coleman TD
Alabama vs Auburn game predictions
Alabama vs Auburn moneyline prediction
Auburn could keep this one close for a while, but Alabama's passing attack will prove too much in the long run, allowing the Crimson Tide to win the Iron Bowl for the sixth consecutive season.
Alabama vs Auburn spread prediction
If Alabama does win its sixth straight Iron Bowl, I’m betting it happens by at least a touchdown. The aerial attack will create enough explosive plays to make that happen. Not to mention, Auburn has just one conference win this season and is 2-4-1 ATS in SEC play.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAlabama vs Auburn Over/Under prediction
I have a slight lean to the Under here. The intense nature of a rivalry game like this tends to favor the Under, and Alabama has played to the Under in seven of its last eight games overall.
Alabama vs Auburn odds
Spread: Alabama -5.5 | Auburn +5.5
Moneyline: Alabama -220 | Auburn +184
Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Alabama vs Auburn trend to know
Auburn has only covered in four of its last 12 games for -4.80 Units and a -36% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Alabama vs Auburn.
How to watch Alabama vs Auburn
Location
Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Date
Saturday, November 29, 2025
Kickoff
7:30 p.m. ET
TV
ABC
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.Not intended for use in MA.Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
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