Which teams can help the Texas CFP hopes

With the regular season complete and no opportunity to play for the SEC title, the No. 16 Texas Longhorns have eight days to wait to find out their postseason future following Friday’s resounding 27-17 win over the No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies that allowed head coach Steve Sarkisian to offer a compelling case for his Longhorns to make their third consecutive appearance in the College Football Playoff despite three losses.

Headlining that resume are the three top-10 wins for Texas, the most in a regular season since LSU’s national championship-winning team in 2019.

But with four teams in front of the Longhorns in this week’s rankings from the committee, Texas could use some help on Saturday before teams across the country play for conference championships next weekend, when losses are much less likely to receive punishment.

Here’s a look at those games.

No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan

In The Game, Longhorns fans become Buckeyes fans in hopes of Ohio State dealing Michigan its third loss and maintaining its undefeated record. Head coach Sherrone Moore’s team jumping ahead of Texas last week behind a win over seven-loss Maryland was a strange and controversial decision that a loss on Saturday would allow the committee to rectify with ease. It’s a thin resume for the Wolverines anyway, with a loss to the Sooners that stands in contrast to the win the Longhorns secured in the Cotton Bowl last month.

No. 12 Miami at No. 22 Pitt

The other early game worth following pits the Hurricanes against the Panthers. Like Michigan, Miami also has two losses on a resume burnished by a season-opening win over No. 9 Notre Dame and, in comparison to Texas, a workmanlike effort against Florida. A loss to 7-4 Louisville, ninth in the ACC standings entering Saturday, isn’t as bad as losing to Florida, but it’s not great, either. If Pitt can beat Miami on Saturday, Texas should make the jump.

UCF at No. 11 BYU

At 5-6 and with the game in Provo, the Knights only have a 6.4 percent chance of winning, so there’s not reason to put hope in UCF pulling off the upset. If BYU wins, they earn a rematch with No. 5 Texas Tech, which dealt the Cougars their only loss this season. Right now, the only ranked win for BYU came against No. 13 Utah, so it’s not a strong resume.

No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 19 Tennessee

With Texas beating Texas A&M and holding a head-to-head win against Vanderbilt, there’s an argument the Longhorns should move ahead of the Commodores this week even if Clark Lea’s team emerges from Rocky Top with a big victory. But the best scenario for Texas is certainly for Vanderbilt to lose the afternoon game.

No. 10 Alabama at Auburn

Anything is possible in the Iron Bowl? With the Tigers at 5-6 and playing under interim head coach DJ Durkin, there’s a chance. ESPN puts it at 26.3 percent, so they aren’t high, but a third loss for the Crimson Tide would be big for the Horns.

No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford

Put this evening game in the same category as UCF at BYU, although Notre Dame at least has to travel across the country to play on The Farm. As two-loss team, the Fighting Irish don’t have any margin for error, although the fact that the Cardinal are a bad 4-7 team with a 4.5-percent win probability should make the outcome in Palo Alto pretty academic.

Obviously, the best-case scenario for Texas involves some extremely unlikely upsets, but a more plausible outcome like wins by Ohio State, Miami, and Tennessee would put Sarkisian’s team on the brink of a top-12 ranking.