Friday Discussion: Does Michigan control its own destiny to reach the CFP?

With two weeks left in the regular season, the Michigan Wolverines sit at No. 18 in the College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings. Ordinarily, that would make it incredibly difficult to make the CFP with so many teams needing to get out of the way. However, they have the opportunity to stake their claim by beating the No. 1 team in the country, a team they have beaten four times in a row.

Today’s discussion question is this — does Michigan control its own CFP destiny?

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first. If Michigan loses to either Maryland or Ohio State, all CFP dreams are dead. Sitting at 9-3, there’s no plausible scenario for Michigan to make it as it would either have a hideous loss on their resume, or no signature wins. No 9-3 resume like that is making the CFP.

If the Wolverines win the next two games, they would be 10-2 overall with a win over the top team in the country, and their two losses being to No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 15 USC. To put it plainly, Michigan would have two respectable losses along with the best win by any team in college football this season.

Would that be enough to get the Wolverines in the CFP, or would they need some help?

Let’s start with the locks. Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M and Georgia are all but guaranteed to make the CFP. Even if they lose out (which is incredibly improbable) they would very likely make the field. Additionally, if we’re assuming Michigan gets no help to get in, Ole Miss, Texas Tech and Oregon would have better resumes, as they all only have one loss each. As for Oklahoma, Michigan would have a better win, but it would be impossible for the committee to ignore the head-to-head beatdown the Sooners put on the Wolverines.

Again, if we assume Michigan gets no help, that would be eight teams ahead of 10-2 Michigan. There are also only three hypothetical conference champions, as the ACC and Group of Six would get spots No. 9 and 10.

This brings us to the meat of the argument — how would a 10-2 Michigan resume stack up against Notre Dame, Alabama, BYU, Utah, Miami, Vanderbilt, USC, Georgia Tech and Texas? The Wolverines would need to be in the top two of this group, but remember that one of them is likely to be the ACC champ and can get discarded.

A scenario where Michigan gets no help would encounter a USC win over Oregon this weekend, as the Trojans would stay ahead of the Wolverines due to the head-to-head win. If the ACC and Big 12 were to cannibalize themselves — which there’s a decent chance of that happening — that would leave Notre Dame and Alabama as the two toughest comparisons.

Against the Fighting Irish, Michigan would have by far the best win (No. 1 Ohio State), but Notre Dame has been adored by the committee all season long despite USC being its best win. However, the transitive factor could be a problem, as Notre Dame beat USC by 10 just a week after USC thumped Michigan, 31-13.

Compared to the Crimson Tide, they have significantly more quality wins (at No. 5 Georgia, vs. No. 16 Vanderbilt, at No. 14 Missouri, vs. No. 11 Tennessee) but they also have a worse loss (unranked Florida State) to start the season. Both programs also lost to Oklahoma, which complicates things a bit more.

My general takeaway is Michigan’s CFP hopes are very, very messy even with a win against the Buckeyes. The Wolverines don’t control their own destiny, but there is certainly still a plausible pathway to get there.

Do you believe the Wolverines control their own destiny? If not, what do they need to happen to make the CFP? Will the Wolverines beat the Buckeyes and, if so, by how much? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.