The Prediction: Oregon Ducks

It’s almost time for the Huskies and the hated Ducks to square off in Seattle! Our staff has their picks for how they think Saturday will play out. Let us know your picks in the comments below!

Andrew Berg (10-1 SU, 4-7 ATS)

I wrote after Washington’s loss against Wisconsin that the game narrowed the range of possible paths for a great season to exactly one: beat Oregon. If the Huskies had beaten Wisconsin, Purdue, and UCLA, they would have entered this game 9-2. Even a competitive loss to a top rival would leave the Huskies in a very good bowl game, likely in the top 25, and with a solid chance at a double-digit win season. I will never complain about a 10-win season. After performing about as well as possible against Purdue and UCLA, that sentiment feels as true as ever. The season has been an improvement over last year, but if the Huskies don’t beat Oregon, it will feel like a big missed opportunity. The game will not be easy. There are good reasons for Oregon being ranked sixth in the country. The have a stable of tough running backs and they like to run the ball often. They rank first in the country in rushing success rate and EPA per rush. The Washington run defense has improved over the course of the season, but most of the best games for the defense have come against teams multiple tiers below Oregon in ability. Offensively, the Dawgs will have to protect Demond Williams against a really good defensive front. UW has found success on broken plays due to Demond’s ability to improvise, but Oregon is 7th best in the country at limiting EPA on scrambles (and also great at preventing scrambles). The Huskies absolutely have to minimize unforced errors. We can’t have any special teams gaffes, huge penalty yardage, or a turnover deficit. If the Dawgs can avoid all those pitfalls, effectively bring down runners on first contact, and maintain balanced drives, they can win the game. It’s a lot to ask, but that’s what it takes to beat a team ranked this high. The Dawgs have done all those things at different points this year. I hope they can do them all at the same time on Saturday. Oregon 30 – Washington 23

Max Vrooman (8-3 SU, 2-9 ATS)

Oh, how I would love to be able to honestly pick the Huskies here. The Dawgs are at home where they have generally been a completely different team and haven’t given up more than 25 points to anyone they’ve played this season. Oregon’s offense has the potential to go supernova but has been banged up and held to 24 or fewer points in regulation in 4 of their last 7 contests. The problem here likely lies with Washington’s offense though. The Huskies have only played 3 top-40 defenses so far this season and have averaged just 7.7 points per game in those contests. Now they play an Oregon unit that is top-5 in SP+ on defense with a likely less than 100% Denzel Boston and probably still missing Landen Hatchett and Drew Azzopardi. It seems like UW has gotten to a middle ground where they can move the ball easily at home against average or worse defenses but still can’t figure out units filled with elite athletes and that’s what they’re going to face. It’s going to take Demond Williams Jr. playing the best game of his season plus the Dawgs catching a lucky bounce or two to pull this one off. It’s not impossible but I don’t see it happening on this day. Please make me look like an idiot (even if I don’t need help). Washington- 13, Oregon- 27

Mark Schafer (8-3 SU, 1-9 ATS)

This is a tough game for me. On one hand, I always, without fail, pick the Dawgs, no matter what. On the other hand, though the Huskies are at home, they’re facing a tough task. Oregon’s offense is electric, their defense is stout, and the Dawgs are likely to still be shorthanded, with Hatchett and Azzopardi likely to be out still, and Denzel Boston and Jonah Coleman still likely not at 100 percent. Demond will have to shoulder much of the responsibility, and play out of his mind. Speaking of playing out of their minds, the offensive line will likely have to do the same against a fearsome front 7 featuring leading tackler Bryce Boettcher. Defensively, the most likely key to victory will be like last week: fly to the ball, force turnovers, and play within themselves to slow Oregon’s attack just enough for the Huskies to maybe pull away, which is something that they did in 2023. Oregon’s offense is elite though, and as the game against Ohio State shows, the Huskies struggled against their elite athletes. Still, the optimist in me believe the boys will be fired up playing their biggest rival at home, and pull out a narrow victory as they await their bowl destination! I’ll likely be wrong, but I can never pick the Empire led by Phil Knight!

Washington-28, Oregon-27

Prediction Stats

Straight Up: Oregon-2, Washington-1

Against The Spread: Oregon-2, Washington-1

Average Score: Washington-21, Oregon-28

Let us know your prediction in the comments below!