Finding value in player props is one of the most consistent ways to beat the books. Each week, FTN highlights three props identified by our proprietary model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. Below, you’ll see the posted line, FTN’s projection, and the edge percentage, followed by context on why this prop makes sense. To see all the best props of the week, make sure you visit our prop tool.
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Prop Bet 1: Jalen Hurts Over 205.5 Passing Yards
-113, FanDuel SportsbookFTN Projection: 254.6Edge: 23.4%
Hurts may be coming off three straight games under 200 passing yards, but a matchup with Dallas should change that. The Cowboys have allowed quarterbacks to clear this number in all but two games this season, and they rank 30th in defensive DVOA against the pass. This is the right matchup to get Hurts back on track.
Prop Bet 2: Javonte Williams Over 65.5 Rushing Yards
-114, FanDuel SportsbookFTN Projection: 89.4Edge: 22.0%
Javonte’s breakout season keeps rolling — he now ranks fifth in the league in rushing yards and combines heavy volume with strong efficiency at 5.0 yards per carry. The Eagles are tough against the run, but Williams’ workload gives him a strong path to 20 carries, which should be plenty to clear this line.
Prop Bet 3: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 73.5 Rushing Yards
-114, FanDuel SportsbookFTN Projection: 94.6Edge: 19.4%
Gibbs is set up for a big day against a Giants defense that has allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL, the highest EPA per rush, and ranks last in run-defense DVOA. Even with touches split between Gibbs and David Montgomery, this matchup is soft enough for both backs to post big numbers.
Track Every Pick in Real Time
This article is just the start. FTN subscribers can:
- Follow along in Discord for live plays and betting discussions.
- Access the Bet Tracker for every expert pick.
- Compare lines across the Prop Shop and Parlay Odds Shop.
FTN’s NFL Betting Resources
- NFL Simulation Model
- NFL Prop Tool
- DVOA Game Projections
- Bet Tracker with Expert Picks
- Jeff Ratcliffe’s Player Props
- NFL Same Game Parlay Tool
- DVOA Rankings
- Prop Shop
- Parlay Odds Shop
- NFL Odds
Final Thoughts
NFL betting is about finding small edges that add up over the course of the season. FTN’s Bet of the Week is just one example of the actionable insights our model delivers. Lock in this week’s best bet, and check back every week for the next free NFL best play.
