Using matchup data, I’ve got 10 sleepers that could help your fantasy teams get these much needed wins and help propel you toward the fantasy playoffs. Good luck and let’s go….
Quarterbacks
Shedeur Sanders vs. SF
The Niners are dead last in both QB pressure rate and sacks per game, which bodes well for Sanders, who operates best as a pure pocket passer.
Prior to clamping up Bryce Young, the 49ers had allowed 22+ fantasy points in four consecutive games and overall they’ve allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to the position.
Let’s see if the coaching staff let’s the kid play a little bit after putting a handful of impressive throws on tape the past couple of weeks.
Sam Darnold vs. MIN
One word: REVENNNNNGGGGGEEEEEE!!!
This is a defense Darnold saw a lot last year in practice, and while that familiarity can go both ways, Minnesota plays into the areas Darnold loves to attack; particularly the deep ball.
They allow a 54.6% completion rate on passes of 20+ air yards this year, the second-worst mark in the NFL. The 19.3 yards per attempt on deep passes is dead last.
No one has been more productive on deep passes than Darnold this year. His seven TD tosses are tied for the league lead and his 767 pass yards is the outright leader.
Running Backs
Kenneth Gainwell vs. BUF
The stout Bills defense from a few years ago has long been dead and what remains is a rushing defense that is one of the worst in the league.
Buffalo is dead last in yards after contact allowed to the position group and overall have allowed an atrocious 5.25 YPC to running backs thus far. You add it all up and the Bills have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to the position.
With starting RB Jaylen Warren banged up, Gainwell took a slight edge over him in snap share (52% vs 49%). Look for that split to continue as Warren did not run well last week. His 3.8 YPC against the Bears paled in comparison to Gainwell’s 9.2 YPC.
RJ Harvey vs. WAS
The Commanders have allowed the fifth-most FPPG to opposing backs but it’s how they give up yardage that really intrigues me.
Harvey has a 57.4% outside run rate and the collegiate charting I’ve done of him shows him to be a big-time home run hitter when running to the outside. He hasn’t shown it yet but that may change this week as the Commanders have struggled to contain the outside.
They allow the third-highest explosive run rate to running backs running to the outside and the 5.3 YPC allowed on these types of runs ranks as sixth-worst.
Devin Neal vs. MIA
Keep an eye on the injury report as Neal is dealing with an ankle injury. But if he goes, the rookie is in a great spot.
The Dolphins allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game to opposing backs and overall they’ve allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position.
The 4.87 YPC allowed to opposing backs ranks as fifth-worst and they’re arguably worse defending backs out of the backfield. Miami has allowed an incredulous 90% completion rate to RB, that’s obviously the worst mark in the NFL.
I wrote this about him in my snap share report from earlier this week, “A sixth-round pick, Neal is 5-11, 213 pounds and ran a 4.58 40 time. You can catch some of his Kansas highlights here but when I went back and watched a couple of his games, while he lacks long speed I’m intrigued by his short-area burst. He has a decent wiggle/vision combo and uses those skills to find holes and avoid big tackles resulting in him picking up an extra yard or two on a good amount of his carries.”
Wide Receivers
Michael Wilson vs. TB
The hottest receiver in football right now, Wilson has yet another tasty matchup, this time against the Bucs. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-most receptions and the fifth-most yards per game to outside wide receivers.
Over the Bucs' last four games, FIVE different outside receivers have scored 14+ PPR points against this unit. And we’re not talking about big names here either. Sure, Davante Adams tagged them for 23.2 but guys like Tyrell Shavers, Kyle Williams and Rashid Shaheed all posted 14+ working from the outside.
Khalil Shakir vs. PIT
You figure someone in a Bills uniform is going to pop off against this Steelers' pass defense, why not the guy that just had his best game of the season in Shakir.
His 10 targets, eight receptions and 110 yards against HOU last week was quite impressive given the matchup and one of his best games ever as a pro. It was the second most targets, receptions and yards he’s ever compiled in his young career.
The Steelers have allowed the most receptions and yards to this position group overall.
DEEP SLEEPER: Pat Bryant vs. WAS
I really like Troy Franklin in this spot too but wanted to focus on Bryant, who may have taken over full-time slot duties in Denver. The rookie out of Illinois played 80% of his snaps inside in the Broncos' last game and ran the third-most routes.
Bryant had his most productive day as a pro in his last game, posting season/career highs in targets, receptions and yards (6/5/82).
Franklin was running as the team’s primary slot man prior to the emergence of Bryant but has since been moved mostly outside as a flanker/X-receiver.
The matchup is pristine as the Commanders have allowed the second-most receptions and are dead last in yards per game allowed to inside receivers.
DEEP SLEEPER: Adonai Mitchell vs. ATL
The Falcons have allowed the 10th most FPPG to outside wide receivers and starting outside receivers have scored 16+ PPR points against Atlanta in four of the last five games.
The box score hasn’t reflected it but Mitchell has been getting solid separation as a route runner, a big reason why he’s seen six and seven targets (go ahead, do the thing) in consecutive games.
If Mitchell sees that kind of volume again, do not be surprised if he comes through with a touchdown. The Falcons have allowed 10 touchdowns to outside receivers this year, tied for the third-most in the NFL.
Tight Ends
DEEP SLEEPER: Gunnar Helm vs. JAX
The Jags have given up the second-most FPPG to TEs with starters scoring double-digit PPR points in eight of their last nine matchups.
It’s possible Chig Okonkwo benefits here but the rookie out of Texas is emerging as a potential safety blanket for the scattershot Cam Ward.
After averaging about 45% snap share over his first nine games, Helm's been pushing 65% snaps share in back-to-back games. As a result, he saw five and seven targets in those games. In his latest game, Helm posted a 7/6/51 slash line, setting season/career highs in all those categories.
A classic move TE, he reminds me a lot of former Colt, Jack Doyle. I saw a lot of after-the-catch ability on his college tape and what's definitely translated are his hands. This guy’s catching EVERYTHING. His 81.1% catch rate is pretty dang impressive given Ward is only completing 59% of his passes.
