Justin Boone provides a weekly look at undervalued fantasy players to consider starting this week and potential busts you might want to leave on your bench.
For the rest of your lineup decisions, consult his Week 13 rankings.
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Bo Nix, QB, Broncos
at Commanders
It’s been a very up-and-down sophomore season for Nix, especially when it comes to his fantasy production.
The 25-year-old is the QB13 in fantasy points per game on the year, but his three best performances have come when he’s faced easier opponents.
Nix finished as a top-six fantasy quarterback in his outings against the Bengals, Giants and Cowboys, which all rank among the five most generous defenses to passers.
This week, Nix gets to face another defense that fits that criteria in the Commanders. Washington is allowing the fourth most fantasy points to the position.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementSo, you can fire up Nix as a solid QB1 in Week 13, but he remains very matchup-dependent.
Other QBs to start:
Jaxson Dart at Patriots – Dart is finally returning to the lineup and it’s important to remember how good he’s been for fantasy. During his seven starts, he was the QB3 overall in fppg with five top-12 QB finishes. He even overcame difficult matchups and multiple injuries to key contributors.
Jacoby Brissett at Buccaneers – Brissett has been a top-12 fantasy QB in all six of his starts this season. Meanwhile, the Bucs are the eighth softest opponent for fantasy QBs.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Patriots
vs. Giants
After a pair of strong starts where he racked up 244 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns, Henderson had a quieter game with 81 yards in an extremely favorable spot against the Bengals last week.
More importantly, it was great to see the rookie maintain a 65% snap share and earn 21 touches, even with Rhamondre Stevenson returning to the lineup.
The Patriots have the easiest schedule for fantasy running backs the rest of the way, beginning with a Giants’ defense that’s giving up the second-most points to running backs.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementStart Henderson with confidence as a low-end RB1 on Monday night.
Other RBs to start:
Breece Hall vs. Falcons – Hall has gone over 115 scrimmage yards in three of his last four outings and now gets the sixth-best fantasy RB matchup in the Falcons.
RJ Harvey at Commanders – In his first start after losing J.K. Dobbins to injury, Harvey was held to just 50 yards versus the Chiefs. Fortunately, he’ll get a much smoother path to production against a crumbling Commanders’ defense that’s allowed 165 yards to De’Von Achane and 172 yards and three touchdowns to Jahmyr Gibbs over their last two games.
Travis Etienne Jr. at Titans – Despite Bhayshul Tuten’s attempts to carve out a bigger role, Etienne has at least 18 touches in all four games since the bye. That volume should serve him well against the Titans defense that’s permitting the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers
vs. Raiders
When the Chargers played the Raiders earlier this year, McConkey was in the midst of a slower start to the campaign and came away with just five catches for 48 scoreless yards.
Since then, he’s reestablished himself as the top pass-catcher in the offense. Over the last eight weeks, McConkey is tied for the 12th-most fantasy points among receivers.
You can expect that trend to continue against a Vegas team that’s allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to his position.
The Chargers are also big favorites in this game, with the seventh-highest implied point total on the week, which increases the chances of McConkey finding the end zone. Consider him a high-end fantasy WR2 with WR1 upside.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOther WRs to start:
Stefon Diggs vs. Giants – Prior to the two-catch, 20-yard dud he put up last week, Diggs had at least 100 yards or a touchdown in four straight games. You can expect him to get back on track versus a Giants’ unit that’s the fifth-best matchup to attack for wideouts.
Wan’Dale Robinson at Patriots – Robinson has seen at least nine targets in five of his past six appearances. Coming off his best game of the season, I’m valuing him as a low-end WR2 this week.
Courtland Sutton at Commanders – It’s been a minute since we’ve had a spike week from Sutton, but Washington is allowing the fourth-most receiving touchdowns, the seventh-most receiving yards and the third-most fantasy points to the position.
Theo Johnson, TE, Giants
at Patriots
Johnson is a sneaky beneficiary of Jaxson Dart being cleared from concussion protocol.
During Dart’s seven starts, Johnson was the TE10 in fppg and now has a chance to be a locked-in fantasy option for the remainder of the season.
The Patriots are also a plus matchup for him, since they’ve given up the 11th most fantasy points to tight ends this year — despite only facing a couple of stars at the position.
It’s worth noting that Johnson is still available on 43% of waiver wires, so you might be able to pick him up and start him this week.
Other TEs to start:
Hunter Henry vs. Giants – The Giants have improved their defense against tight ends, but Henry is heating up lately with at least 45 yards and/or a TD in four of his past five outings.
Juwan Johnson at Dolphins – Johnson has finished as TE13 or better for five straight weeks
Sits
Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers
at Browns
Purdy struggled in last week’s win over the Panthers, constantly missing the mark with throws and turning the ball over three times. I’m not overreacting to one game, but things aren’t setting up any better for him in Week 13. He’ll head to Cleveland to take on a defense that’s the seventh-worst matchup for fantasy quarterbacks.
On top of that, the game is expected to have rain and sustained winds around 20 mph, which will have an impact on deeper throws.
While Purdy will be back in the fantasy QB1 mix thanks to some easier matchups in the fantasy playoffs, he’s outside my top-15 QBs this week.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOther QBs to sit:
Daniel Jones vs. Texans – If a matchup with the Texans defense wasn’t bad enough, now Jones is dealing with a fracture in his fibula that he’s trying to play through.
Marcus Mariota vs. Broncos – Mariota has been a solid streaming option most weeks when Jayden Daniels was sidelined. Don’t expect that to be the case this time around against a Broncos squad that’s only allowed two total touchdowns to quarterbacks over the last month.
Aaron Jones Sr., RB, Vikings
at Seahawks
With the Vikings offense having issues, Jones has only found the end zone once since returning to the lineup in Week 8.
He’s also splitting work with Jordan Mason, which has held Jones to 12 touches or less in four of his past five outings.
It’s hard to expect a bounce back this week against a Seahawks’ defense that’s allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Seattle’s front has stifled plenty of quality rushing attacks this season, and until we see some sign of life from Minnesota, Jones is a very volatile fantasy play.
Maybe the quarterback change to Max Brosmer will help, but I’d rather see some positive results before I trust Jones against difficult opponents.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOther RBs to sit:
Quinshon Judkins vs. 49ers – Judkins saved his fantasy day with two touchdowns last week, but he only managed 47 yards otherwise. He’s a risky TD-or-bust RB3 in an offense with limited upside.
Commanders’ RBs vs. Broncos – Washington’s schedule will ease up down the stretch, but not this week against the seventh-toughest fantasy RB matchup. Chris Rodriguez Jr. had the lead in the Commanders’ three-man committee before the bye, but it’s possible Jacory Croskey-Merritt could earn more work at any moment.
Titans’ RBs vs. Jaguars – Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears continue to cannibalize each other while playing in an underwhelming Tennessee offense. The Jags are also the sixth toughest challenge for fantasy RBs.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, Commanders
vs. Broncos
I wrote about Samuel as a sell candidate before the fantasy trade deadline, so hopefully you took my advice.
He scored touchdowns in back-to-back games before the Commanders’ Week 12 bye, but the occasional trips to the end zone are the only thing making him fantasy relevant.
The 29-year-old no longer has the same juice and his target share could take a hit with Terry McLaurin nearing a return to the lineup.
To make matters even worse, he gets the most difficult matchup for fantasy receivers this week with the Broncos.
If you’re a serious contender, I hope you can find someone with more fantasy upside than Samuel, who is just a TD-or-bust WR3.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOther WRs to sit:
Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Texans – Pittman found the end zone last week, but he’s posted yardage totals of 19 and 27 in his last two outings. With Daniel Jones playing injured against one of the best defenses in the league, this doesn’t seem like the time for a spike week from Pittman.
DK Metcalf vs. Bills – Touchdowns occasionally salvage Metcalf’s fantasy stat lines, but he’s been held to 55 yards or less in six consecutive games. He’s in the TD-or-bust WR3 group like Pittman.
Ricky Pearsall at Browns – A player who’s been held to three catches for six yards over his last two games and has a quarterback who’s struggling to hit him with accurate passes is an obvious stay away. But we can add the weather concerns in Cleveland to the reasons why we’re keeping Pearsall on the bench.
Kyle Pitts Sr., TE, Falcons
vs. Jets
Since Week 8, Pitts has gone up against defenses that are all plus matchups for fantasy tight ends but has only managed stat lines of 9-59-0, 4-38-0, 2-38-0, 2-14-0 and 2-25-0.
On top of the disappointing yardage totals, you’ll notice he hasn’t scored a touchdown during that span.
Even with Drake London likely to miss another contest, London is just a risky TE2 streamer.
Other TEs to sit:
Cade Otton vs. Cardinals – With Chris Godwin back in the lineup, Otton’s numbers have reverted to where they were before all the receiver injuries. He hasn’t even scored a touchdown this season, so we can’t even rely on that to boost his fantasy results.
Mason Taylor vs. Falcons – The Falcons allow the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, but even with Tyrod Taylor under center, Mason Taylor only managed three receptions and 21 yards last week. He’s off the streamer radar until further notice.