Cole SullivanFri, November 28, 2025 at 3:45 PM UTC·16 min readSo here’s the deal. We are on the outside looking in, but we are looking in through a wide open window. I am going to walk us through the playoff picture, team-by-team, scenario-by-scenario, to see what Vanderbilt’s real chances at making it in are, and where would land in the postseason landscape, whether we make it in the playoffs or not.
I am going to start with a sort of overview of the playoff picture as it currently stands, talk about what the conference championships could mean for auto-bids, and then walk through each and every team competing for an at-large spot in order of their current ranking. I will conclude with a hotel and attractions guide for Shreveport.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Lay of the Land
I wrote most of this on Sunday, but edited it following the rankings release tonight. I can’t be certain that everything got revised correctly, but this should be a rather thorough, accurate reckoning of where we are and what would and would not help us get our chance at a title shot. With that in mind, here is how things currently stand in the running for an at-large bid:
Ohio State (11-0)
Indiana (11-0)
Texas A&M (11-0)
Georgia (10-1)
Texas Tech (10-1)
Oregon (10-1)
Ole Miss (10-1)
Oklakoma (9-2)
Notre Dame (9-2)
Alabama (9-2)
BYU (10-1)
Miami (9-2)
Utah (9-2)
Vanderbilt (9-2)
Michigan (8-2)
Texas (8-3)
If we make it in, it will have likely need to be no. 10 or better due to conference championship auto-bids taking up the last two playoff slots. That means there are effectively 16 teams competing for 10 bids, but 8 of those are probably already locked in regardless of future results.
Conference Championship Auto-Bids
Everyone past Michigan is a non-factor for an at-large bid, but some teams could still get in via auto-bid by winning their conference championship game. I am going to walk through each team’s path to their conference championship and then talk about who would or would not be stealing a bid. Keep in mind that I am focusing on the effects of a team winning their respective championship and NOT really looking at whether anything that happened to get them into that game earned them a spot. As a bubble team, we need as few bids stolen as possible.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementSEC Conference Championship Auto-BidThere are only four teams capable of making the SEC Championship (scenarios may not be comprehensive):
Texas A&M (with a win, OR a loss and at least 1 of an Alabama and/or Ole Miss loss)
Georgia (with an Alabama or Texas A&M loss)
Ole Miss (with a win AND a Texas A&M loss AND an Alabama loss)
Alabama (with a win)
All four of these teams will likely make the playoffs regardless of any future results. The SEC Championship Game result will have no effect on our chances at the playoffs.
Big Ten Conference Championship Auto-BidSimilar to the SEC, there are only four teams capable of making the Big Ten Championship (scenarios may not be comprehensive):
Ohio State (with a win, OR a loss and an Indiana loss AND an Oregon loss)
Indiana (with a win, OR a loss and an Ohio State win)
Oregon (with a win AND an Indiana or Ohio State loss)
Michigan (with a win AND and an Oregon or Indiana loss)
All four of these teams will make the playoffs if they make their conference championship game, regardless of the result in that game. The Big Ten Championship Game result will have no effect on our chances at the playoffs.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementBig 12 Conference Championship Auto-BidSimilar to the SEC and Big Ten, there are only four teams capable of making the Big 12 Championship (scenarios may not be comprehensive):
Texas Tech (with a win, OR a loss and an Arizona State loss)
BYU (with a win, OR a loss and an Arizona State loss, OR a loss and a Texas Tech loss AND a Utah loss)
Utah (with a win AND a Texas Tech loss AND an Arizona State win AND a BYU win)
Arizona State (with a win AND a BYU loss, OR with a win AND a Texas Tech loss AND a Utah loss)
Texas Tech should make the playoffs regardless of any future results, so it would be best for us if they won this game. BYU and Utah could both make the playoffs with a conference championship berth and loss, but it could be tight. We would prefer they lose to Texas Tech or the lower ranked of them lose to the other. Arizona State absolutely has to win the Big 12 to make it into the playoffs, so we are rooting for them to lose the conference championship game if they make it.
ACC Conference Championship Auto-BidThere are six teams capable of making the ACC Championship. The chaos is overwhelming. Scenarios are nowhere close to comprehensive:
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementMiami (with a win AND a few other things)
Virginia (with a win, OR a loss a few other things)
Georgia Tech (with an SMU loss AND a Virginia loss AND [a Pitt win OR a lot of other things])
Pitt (with a win AND a Virginia or SMU loss)
SMU (with a win, OR a loss and a few other things)
Duke (with a win AND a lot of other things)
SMU and Virginia have the clearest paths, but Miami could sneak in. It is extremely unlikely any of the other three teams make it to the ACC Championship Game, but chaos has prevailed before. Of these three teams, Miami is probably the only one that makes it in the playoff with a title game berth and loss. The Hurricanes could also make it with a win and no berth, so anything other than Miami winning the ACC Championship Game takes an at-large spot away. We would strongly prefer the Hurricanes make the game and win it. That will probably not happen because their path to even make the game is so narrow, so the ACC champion will most likely steal a spot from an at-large team for the second year in a row. We do not care who wins the ACC in any matchup that does not involve Miami.
American Conference ChampionshipUSF, UNT, Tulane, and Navy all have a chance to make the conference championship game, but it will most likely by UNT versus Tulane. No team from the American will make the playoffs as an at-large, and the American champion will only make it if they are ranked above the Sun Belt champion (unless Duke wins the ACC, in which case the Sun Belt and American champions could both get in in the absence of an ACC champion). No result in the American directly impacts our chances.
Sun Belt Conference ChampionshipJames Madison will play in the conference championship game against the winner of Troy-Southern Miss. No team from the Sun Belt will make the playoffs as an at-large, and only James Madison would make it as a conference champion. The Sun Belt champion will only make it if they are ranked above the American champion (unless Duke wins the ACC, in which case the Sun Belt and American champions could both get in in the absence of an ACC champion). No result in the Sun Belt directly impacts our chances.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementConference Championships in SummaryThe exact results of the SEC, Big Ten, American, and Sun Belt conference championships do not affect us. We would prefer Texas Tech make and win the Big 12, and if Arizona State makes the Big 12 title game, we definitely need them to lose. If Miami makes the ACC title game, we need them to win, but that will probably not happen.
At-Large Teams: The Locks
I am going to run through the top 7 teams in the college football rankings and explain why they are locks while maybe peeking at seeding possibilities. Worth noting is that all 7+Notre Dame of these games will be played on the road.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOhio State (Saturday 11AM @Michigan, 78% to win)The Buckeyes make it no matter what. They will most likely beat Michigan and then play Indiana for the Big Ten crown. Lose and they still may get to enjoy a first round bye.
Indiana (Friday 6:30PM @Purdue, 97% to win)The Hoosiers will make it no matter what. They will almost definitely beat Purdue (a school with fantastic colors) and then play Ohio State for the Big Ten crown. Lose and they still may get to enjoy a first round bye.
Texas A&M (Friday 6:30PM @Texas, 49% to win)The Aggies (whatever in tarnation those are) will make it no matter what. Interestingly, ESPN is predicting them to lose. This game should be a real thriller as long as Arch can keep his head. As hilarious as that would be, a loss here opens the door for Texas to get in; we need A&M to win their last game of their season to keep the Longhorns safely out.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementGeorgia (Friday 2:30PM “@”Georgia Tech, 87% to win)The Bulldogs will make it no matter what. They should beat Georgia Tech handily as long as they can survive the Ghosts of SEC Championship Losses Past in Mercedes-Benz. This game has no effect on conference standings because Georgia Tech is a really dumb nerd school, and the Yellowjackets are ranked low enough they should not be a factor in any at-large conversations, but for safe measure we want Georgia to win this game.
Texas Tech (Saturday 11AM @West Virginia, 92% to win)The Red Raiders should make it no matter what. They recently handled an otherwise hot BYU, beat Utah in a huge game earlier this season, and have only lost once on a last-minute touchdown at a now-ranked Arizona State Sun Devils. I guess theoretically they could lay a real egg in Morgantown, but I am penciling them in.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOregon (Saturday 2:30PM @Washington, 75% to win)The Ducks will probably make it no matter what. If they lose to Washington, that would look bad, sure, but so far Oregon has only lost to Indiana (after being tied early in the fourth quarter), which is as quality a loss as they come this year. They are coming off a top-25 win over USC with a few other big wins on their resume. They will likely win to get in, but even if they do, they have looked enough the part that I would be surprised to see them left out. They may need a bubble team loss to help them out, but I bet they get it if they need it.
Ole Miss (Friday 11AM @Mississippi State, 78% to win)The Rebels will likely enough make it that I feel fine leaving them here. They will probably win and be in safe and sound, but if they lose, they should survive because of the cushion they’ve built between themselves and the next tier of teams.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAt-Large Teams: Notre Dame
Notre Dame (Saturday 9:30PM @Stanford, 96% to win)Notre Dame is currently comfortably in the playoffs with a bit of a nothing game to end their season. If they lose, they are out, but if they win in anything less than overwhelming fashion, there are a few teams (present company possibly included?) that could pass them up with wins over actual competition this coming weekend. They don’t have a conference championship through which they could lock themselves into the playoffs, for better or for worse, so they better hope to win and win big.
At-Large Teams: The Bubble
We have filled at least probably 2 spots with no good bid-thiefing conference champions, 7 spots with locks or something close enough to them, and (probably) 1 spot with the ever-frustrating Notre Dame. That leaves 2 spots open, maybe 3 if things get truly messy up top or if Notre Dame somehow loses. Below are the 8 teams competing for those 2 or 3 spots, and what it would take for them to get in.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOklahoma (Saturday 2:30PM vs. LSU, 74% to win)The Sooners should be in with a win. LSU is worse than their 7-4 record, but Oklahoma is ranked highly enough thanks to recent wins over Alabama and THEM that it would be difficult for another team to pass them up.
Alabama (Saturday 6:30PM @Auburn, 74% to win)The Crimson Tide should be in with a win. As we recently learned, though, Auburn sans Hugh Freeze could be better than their legacy record shows. Auburn could put up more of a fight than we would otherwise expect, especially with bowl eligibility on the line. There is a chance that Alabama wins and gets pushed out by Miami or Michigan or another team winning big, but they beat us head-to-head so I don’t see a way, if you held us up next to Alabama in the rankings, that we make it in over them.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementBYU (Saturday 12PM vs. UCF, 94% to win)BYU almost certainly wins their last game of the season against their vaunted rival, UCF, but still probably misses the playoffs because the last 2 spots are taken up by conference champions. Even if they lose, they could still make the Big 12 conference championship and win their way in that way. We would like to see them lose, but it is doubtful that happens and there’s a chance it does not even end up making a difference
Miami (Saturday 11AM @Pitt, 70% to win)A win over Pitt would be way bigger than a BYU win over UCF or an Alabama win over Auburn or a Notre Dame win over Stanford, which leads me to believe Miami wins and they are in the playoffs by passing up at least one or two of those teams. Lose and they are way out of it without a shot at the title game to redeem themselves.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementUtah (Friday 11AM @Kansas, 83% to win)Utah is one spot above us, but in my opinion is not clearly any better than we are. The Jayhawks should be a walkover, but Utah just came off a struggle win against Kansas State. If the Utes struggle here, they could cede their spot to us (assuming we put together a strong win) but we will have to see about that.
Michigan (Saturday 11AM vs. Ohio State, 22% to win)Michigan will be a 10-2 Big Ten team coming off a win over the number 1 team in the country, Ohio State. They are in with a win. If we were not on the bubble, I think it would be so funny to see that happen, but for now we really badly need for them to lose.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementTexas (Friday 6:30PM vs. Texas A&M, 52% to win)Due to our head-to-head loss to the Longhorns, and Texas A&M being the no. 3 team in the rankings, Texas would move up with a win here and probably pass us up along the way. We need to hope the Screamers beat the Hornies.
At-Large Teams: Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt (Saturday 2:30PM @The Literal Worst U, 42% to win)Let’s put it all together now. We need to win. Utah is the only team I think we could pass even if they win their game, which means, since the committee has us at 14 (instead of 12 like both the polls do) we would need at least 4 of the other 7 teams in the section above+Notre Dame to lose. Given the matchups, that is highly unlikely to happen. We do have a better chance than any team above us to earn a big win, so maybe we could pass up more than just Utah, but I am not holding my breath.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWe should have a really good idea of the landscape by the time we play, with only Alabama and Notre Dame kicking off after we do of the at-large teams and only Virginia and SMU kicking off after we do of teams competing for the ACC Championship Game.
If we win and don’t get in, we should be bound for the SEC’s premier non-playoff bowl, the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl in Orlando versus one of the top Big Ten teams not in the playoff, so either Michigan or USC.
If we lose, THEM probably passes us up. At that point we will end up in the next tier of SEC bowl games, which means we would most likely either head to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte or the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville where we would matchup against one of the better remaining ACC teams. There is a slew of other bowls, but I think we probably get one of these higher tiered bowls where we likely play Pitt, Georgia Tech, Miami, SMU, or Virginia depending on how exactly things shake out in the ACC. Of those teams, I would most prefer a rematch against Georgia Tech because c’mon, that would be fun.
Finally, what you’ve all been waiting for…
As promised, here is your Shreveport attraction guide for when the college football world somehow works out how to send us to the Independence Bowl, which is now affiliated with the American and Big 12 conferences. Of particular note is the “Mudbug Madness Festival” although that will not be happening until May. Group trip anyone?
To Make Things Easy: Top 25 Schedule
Friday, November 28No. 7 Ole Miss at Mississippi State, 11AM on ABC
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNo. 13 Utah at Kansas, 11AM on ESPN
No. 4 Georgia Tech vs. no. 23 Georgia Tech, 2:30PM on ABC
No. 2 Indiana at Purdue, 6:30PM on NBC/Peacock
No. 3 Texas A&M at no. 16 Texas, 6:30PM on ABC
No. 25 Arizona at no. 20 Arizona State, 8PM on Fox
Saturday, November 29No. 1 Ohio State at no. 15 Michigan, 11AM on Fox
No. 5 Texas Tech at West Virginia, 11AM on ESPN
No. 12 Miami at no. 22 Pitt, 11AM on ABC
UCF at no. 11 BYU, 12PM on ESPN2
No. 6 Oregon at Washington, 2:30PM on CBS
LSU at no. 8 Oklahoma, 2:30PM on ABC
Wake Forest at Duke, 2:30PM on ACC Network
No. 14 Vanderbilt at no. 19 I Hate Them, I Hate Them, I HATE Them, 2:30PM on ESPN
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementVirginia Tech at no. 18 Virginia, 6PM on ESPN
No. 10 Alabama at Auburn, 6:30PM on ABC
UCLA at no. 17 USC, 6:30PM on NBC
Charlotte at no. 24 Tulane, 6:30PM on ESPNU
No. 21 SMU at Cal, 7PM on ESPN2
No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford, 9:30PM on ESPN
AdvertisementAdvertisement
