Week 14 College Football Playoff bubble watch

Most of this year's College Football Playoff contenders have one game to go before they need to sweat out whether they're getting an at-large bid or not. Next week's committee rankings will probably tell us where the at-larges stand, though in theory the committee can reevaluate again after conference championship games. (After all, those games do effect the resumes of other teams that played them.) So, for the last time before a full weekend of games, let's look at the Playoff bubble.

We are down to just 14 teams in our bubble watch this week, which means it's almost time to stop splitting up bubble teams by conference. The SEC's glut of bubble teams means it still makes sense one more time, though. After next week, we'll split up teams by exactly where they stand on the bubble.

We now have three teams locked into the Playoff. Ohio State, Indiana, and and Texas A&M are comfortably in the Playoff no matter what happens the rest of the way. So we have our bubble teams fighting for anywhere between four and six at-large spots. (Two of those three can still win their conferences, so they wouldn't take up an at-large. Since Ohio State and Indiana are both in the Big Ten, that means one at-large locked up between them.) Between these 14 teams plus the three locks, we're talking about 11 of this year's Playoff teams. Either the Mountain West champion, AAC champion, or James Madison will earn the final spot. So that means that of the teams in this bubble watch, six will be heading to other bowl games.

Big Ten teams and the College Football Playoff

Win and in:

Oregon

The Ducks have almost made it through their very difficult end-of-season schedule. All that's left is a road trip to rival Washington. Oregon is a lock with a win, but the Ducks probably don't leave the bubble with a loss, either. It will be a lot of sweating, though.

Win and maybe in:

Michigan

Michigan is probably a lock if it gets to 10-2. Even if that means a Big Ten Championship Game berth and a 10-3 finish, three solid losses and a win over Ohio State is a Playoff-worth resume. But a win over the Buckeyes alone won't make Michigan comfortable. The best-case scenario for Michigan is if Oregon wins this weekend as well. That means a 10-2 season with two good losses and the best win in the country––and no risk as the Ducks would reach the Big Ten Championship Game. A loss and Michigan is for sure out, though.

ACC teams and the College Football Playoff

Win and need help:

Georgia Tech, Miami (FL)

The committee doesn't seem to like Georgia Tech, which is unfortunate for the Yellow Jackets. Still, a win over Georgia might be enough to change that. Would probably require a fair amount of chaos.

The committee has been getting kinder to Miami each week, and a bit of chaos the last two weeks has helped, so the Hurricanes are probably in pretty decent stead at 10-2 (especially if they miss the ACC Championship Game). But they'll be sweating at least a little bit, especially if there are no upsets in the SEC this week.

Win out and probably still out:

Pitt

SMU and Virginia are out of the bubble watch because both control their ACC destiny. So a win means another game, and losing the ACC Championship Game will hurt. Pitt stays in this section because the Panthers have a decent resume (the West Virginia loss has improved in recent weeks) and a good collection of wins to close the season. Still, it would take a lot of chaos in the SEC and Big 12. And the Panthers need Ohio State to beat Michigan.

Big 12 teams and the College Football Playoff

Win and a lock:

Texas Tech

Texas Tech has a strong enough resume that even a Big 12 Championship Game loss wouldn't knock the Red Raiders out. 11-2 is good enough, so Texas Tech is one win away.

Win and should be a lock:

BYU

BYU had a pretty weak resume earlier, but the committee seems to have an absurd bias against the Cougars. The ECU and Arizona wins have improved, plus the Cougars beat two seven-win Big 12 teams in the last two weeks. It's crazy that the committee has them behind so many two-loss teams. Hopefully the committee recognizes their error if BYU gets to 11-1. That should lock the Cougars into the Playoff, but based on what the committee has done so far I wouldn't be confident.

Win out and need help:

Utah

Utah is dominating most teams, though the Utes really struggled against the two really good teams it played. The committee is treating the loss to BYU as a bit of an anchor, but this team probably doesn't need that much help. Even a little bit of chaos in the SEC, and this 10-2 resume is starting to look towards the top of the potential 10-2 at-larges.

SEC teams and the College Football Playoff

Win and in:

Georgia, Ole Miss

Ole Miss has almost lost a lot of games, but it got through the schedule. Avoid a rivalry loss to Mississippi State and the Rebels are in the Playoff. Georgia has a potential tough game left against Georgia Tech, but the Bulldogs are probably in the Playoff even if they lose. They're definitely in with a win, though.

Win and in:

Oklahoma, Alabama,

Oklahoma has wins over Michigan and Alabama. It's a very strong resume if the Sooners finish 10-2. Alabama is right behind them, probably on the right side of the bubble as long as the Crimson Tide beats Auburn. Both of these teams might be worried about BYU jumping them if the committee comes to its senses about the Cougars. Even so, Oklahoma is in. But Alabama might end up being the first team out again in that scenario.

Win out and need help

Texas, Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt's resume is pretty weak once you really look at it, and has gotten weaker as the season has gone on. Still, with the committee putting the Commodores at No. 14 this week, it's hard to think 10-2 won't be enough for them as long as they get a bit of help.

Texas is the only three-loss team in our bubble watch, but they belong. The loss to Ohio State shouldn't count against the Longhorns much, if at all. It's really the Florida loss that's causing the problems. Still, if Texas can beat Texas A&M, then this resume should be stronger than a bunch of 10-2 teams, even with the extra loss.

Others when it comes to the College Football Playoff

We aren't going to see a sixth conference champion get in or a team from outside the Power 4, so we can stop worrying about those teams when it comes to the bubble.

Of course, we can't forget Notre Dame (which we accidentally did in our first bubble watch). If the Irish go 10-2 they have a real shot at the Playoff.

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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: College Football Playoff bubble watch before Week 14