Jumbo Package: Iron Bowl previews and predictions, Friday Open Thread

Happy Friday, everyone. There is Rivalry Week football on all day for you today, and this post will serve as your open thread for those. The SEC action will be the most compelling, starting with the Egg Bowl which I guess is appropriately named given the breakfast kickoff this season.

• Ole Miss at Mississippi State – 11am, ABC

• Georgia at Georgia Tech – 2:30pm, ABC

• Texas A&M at Texas – 6:30pm, ABC

All three of those have SEC Championship Game and playoff implications. Enjoy.

We got the initial Iron Bowl injury report yesterday, with Josh Cuevas and Kevin Riley joining the rest of the “outs” we’ve seen for a while. Freshmen Kaleb Edwards and Marshall Pritchett played well last weekend in Cuevas’ stead, level of competition notwithstanding. Both Germie Bernard and Parker Brailsford are listed as probable after skipping the Eastern Illinois game.

Your previews and predictions:

Expect the unexpected at Jordan-Hare Stadium. But also expect to see an Alabama offense that tries to find its footing against one of the better rush defenses and pass-rushing units in the SEC. Can Ty Simpson and company do enough, while the Crimson Tide defense continues to roll over opponents? Alabama should come away with a victory and an SEC championship bid, even if it’s not pretty. No. 10 Alabama 24, Auburn 17

“The game tends to be close in Auburn, but I don’t think that I can say in good faith that Auburn is going to cover the 5 1/2. You tell me that Bama only needs to win by a touchdown, and I’m going to take it. Bama’s going to cover the 5 1/2. I think that Ty Simpson throws for around 300 (yards), maybe 280, 285, 300, three touchdowns in this game.

“I think that Bama ends up winning. I think they get to the SEC Championship Game. They win this one, 32-21. They cover the 5 1/2, and the Tide rolls in the Iron Bowl.”

Hummer (Alabama -4.5): Auburn can stay in this game, especially defensively. The problem for Auburn is an offense that’s so often been inept this season. That may have changed last week when the Tigers turned to true freshman Deuce Knight, a physical freak who threw for 239 yards and ran for 162 more in his debut against Mercer. Can he keep up the same pace against Alabama? I have my doubts. The game is close for a bit, but the Tide pull away and secure a playoff spot. … Alabama 27, Auburn 18.

Crawford (Alabama -4.5): This is what the Iron Bowl’s all about. One team facing pressure knowing the stakes while the other is at home, trying to spoil a playoff appearance and spot in the SEC Championship Game for the opposition. Auburn certainly can win Saturday night. Alabama hasn’t looked all that clean down the stretch and if the Crimson Tide get into third-and-long situations inside a frenzied environment, this one could teeter. I’ll fade Auburn here, though. Alabama’s playing for more. … Alabama 28, Auburn 14.

Style points don’t matter here. All Alabama has to do is leave the stadium with one more point than the team on the other side, and it’ll be off to Atlanta.

Auburn is 1-6 in the SEC, but five of those losses were by one score, two were in overtime, and the only loss by double-digits was the 20-10 fight with Georgia.

Alabama has yet to win a game on the road by more than one score.

This will be another one of those battles when Auburn appears to have the right mix of things happening on the right day, and then comes the gut punch.

It won’t be Jalen Milroe to Isaiah Bond, but it won’t be terribly far off.

Alabama 26, Auburn 20

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has been a bit rickety as of late, but he’s successfully navigated a number of tense situations involving serious game pressure and won’t be rattled by this environment. Auburn’s quarterback group doesn’t bring the same winning pedigree, and while the Tigers are a threat to run the football, Bama’s run defense has improved significantly in the season’s second half. The Tigers will be able to move the football some, but the Crimson Tide are masters of creating big turnovers and coming up with clutch stops. If Simpson returns to form, Alabama can gain second-half separation. Pick: Alabama -6

The Tigers have scored 17 points or fewer in five of their seven SEC games. They have scored 10 or fewer in three of them. Only shootout-style games against Arkansas and Vanderbilt on the road were the Tigers able to find some points. However, this game does not fit that mold.

Alabama has hit the Game Total Under in nine of its last 13 games, and Auburn has hit the Game Total Under in five of its last six games at home. Neither of these teams plays an up-tempo style, and this will be a bit of a rock fight to start.

While I do expect the Tide to pull away at some point, I don’t think it will be pretty for most of the game with the Auburn defense ranking 26th in points allowed per game. I am feeling like this game will find itself somewhere around a 27-17 type win for the Tide.

Across the board, folks are expecting a relatively ugly affair as both defenses hold a substantial advantage in the game. The interesting thing is that DJ Durkin’s first outing as head coach turned into a shootout at Vanderbilt. Starting QB Ashton Daniels looked outstanding, using high-priced transfer WRs Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr. better than they’ve been used all season en route to 344 passing yards and 38 points. It was a complete 180 from the 10-3 loss to Kentucky one week earlier that saw Hugh Freeze get canned.

Of course, they did lose the game because their vaunted defense allowed Diego Pavia to throw for 377 yards and run for another 112. Vanderbilt’s offense is unique and caused major problems for the Tigers.

The Iron Bowl is always scary when it’s on the road. The good news for Alabama is that the pass defense has been strong this season. Freshman Dijon Lee has been a revelation at corner opposite Zavien Brown, and the matchup of those two against Coleman and Singleton should make for prime time viewing. It will help tremendously if Alabama is able to generate a pass rush that the Commodores could not, and Alabama has been up to the task there this season. The Tide will need LT Overton and Yhonzae Pierre to show out.

On the other side, Auburn’s secondary is suspect if Alabama’s offensive line can give Ty Simpson enough time. There have been some notable lapses in pass protection, but for the most part they’ve been able to keep him sufficiently clean to move the ball through the air. Daniel Hill seemingly took over the primary running back job against Oklahoma and had a decent game. He isn’t going to remind anyone of the Saban era greats at the position, but his power helps to pick up some yards in running lanes that haven’t been what they should.

The records are what they are for a reason, so you have to expect Alabama to win the game. But, Alabama fans will all be expecting some nonsense. Let’s call it 27-16 as the defense has one of its best days.

Of course, that is merely my opinion. Share yours in the comments below.

The raid on Alabama assistant coaches has already begun.

Oregon State football has found its next coach. The Beavers are targeting Alabama assistant head coach JaMarcus Shephard, according to CBS Sports’ Matt Zenitz.

Shephard has been at Alabama since joining Kalen DeBoer’s staff in 2024. Over the last two seasons, Shephard has served as the Crimson Tide’s assistant head coach, co-offensive coordinator and wide receivers coach.

This season, Shephard has helped build an offense that ranks 25th in the country in points per game at 33.8 and ninth in passing yards per game at 292.5. The offense has been humming for much of the season, and quarterback Ty Simpson has had a breakout campaign. Shephard will try to bring some of that magic with him to Corvallis.

Shephard must really want to get back to the Pacific Northwest. That is an objectively terrible job, but we wish him the best. No word yet on whether he will be sticking around for the rest of the season.

Last, Derrick Henry wasted no time in extending Alabama’s touchdown streak in the NFL. The Ravens were blown out by Cincinnati, but the King still got to do some King things.

That’s about it for today. Have a great weekend.

Roll Tide.