ORCHARD PARK - Replicating their remarkably clean and explosive 2024 offensive performance was never going to be possible for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in 2025.
Allen could have delivered another league MVP-type season - which if we’re being perfectly honest is something he has not done so far - and it still would have been difficult to match last season. They set franchise records with 525 points and 65 touchdowns, committed just eight turnovers which tied the 2019 Saints for the fewest by an NFL team dating back to 1993, and their 14 sacks allowed led the league for the second year in a row and was the lowest in the league since 2009.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementEleven games into 2025, the Bills are still scoring as they sit fifth at 28.3 points per game, though that is 2.3 points fewer than 2024. But in terms of turnovers and sacks, there has been a drastic regression and those factors are a big part of why they have already equaled their 2024 loss total, are a longshot to catch New England in the AFC East, and currently sit right on the AFC playoff bubble as the No. 7 seed.
As they head into Sunday’s massively important game against the Steelers in Pittsburgh, where a loss would temporarily drop the Bills out of the playoff tree, they are working on a streak where they’ve turned the ball over three times in three consecutive games, nine in all which is more than all of 2024.
Josh Allen was sacked a career-high eight times by the Texans last week.They haven’t committed at least three turnovers in three straight games since 1986 - Jim Kelly’s first season - when there was a stretch of four such weeks, and after the last of those games, Hank Bullough was fired as head coach and replaced by Marv Levy.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement“I don't want to say last year was an anomaly … last year we did an incredible job of it, and every time we turn the ball over, I'm extremely frustrated,” offensive coordinator Joe Brady said. “There's an expectation and a standard and when you don't turn the ball over, it gives you more opportunities to win football games and score points. The way that the league works, if you don't win the turnover battle, you're going to lose a lot of football games.”
After setting an NFL record where they did not lose the turnover battle for 26 straight games counting the postseason, the Bills have lost it five times in their last seven games including the past three. All four losses came in games where they were on the wrong side of the turnover differential and now they’re facing a Pittsburgh defense that ranks tied for second in takeaways with 20, one year after it led the league with 33.
As for sacks, the Bills have already doubled their 2024 season total with Allen going down 28 times, 12th-most in the league. And it looks like the Bills won’t have excellent right tackle Spencer Brown due to a shoulder injury as it faces a Steelers defense that ranks 10th in sack percentage at 7.1%.
“We need to be better there,” McDermott said of the heat Allen has been under. “We absolutely do. If we want to win or give ourselves a chance to win, we have to be better there.”
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementHere’s my preview of the game:
The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers is no longer a star-level player, but he's still perfectly capable of beating the Bills.Rodgers, who turns 42 next week, sat out the Steelers’ 31-28 loss to the Bears in Week 12 with a fractured left hand, but he will play against Buffalo. Is he an upgrade over Mason Rudolph? Of course. But at this stage of the future Hall of Famer’s career, it’s not as pronounced as you might think.
Similar to Allen, Rodgers doesn’t have a whole lot to work with in the Steelers’ passing game besides stud WR D.K. Metcalf and TEs Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith. He has had six games where he threw for 203 yards or less, his season-high was 249 in a loss to the Bengals who have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and his yards per attempt of 6.8 is tied for 24th with Miami’s weak-armed Tua Tagovailoa.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementRodgers does have one more TD pass (19) than Allen which is tied for fifth-most in the league, but he has produced just 86 first downs passing and rushing which is the fewest among the 21 QBs who have played at least 10 games.
This has certainly not been a bad season for Allen, but he has battled uncharacteristic inconsistency, and there are three issues at play. One, the continued lack of production from the WRs is holding Allen and the offense back. Two, there have been times when his receivers did get open and he either hasn’t seen them, or he passed up the opportunity looking for something better. And three, Brady’s play-calling has felt stagnant this season and he’s not providing answers to counterpunch what the defense is showing and doing.
Buffalo Bills who should impact the game
The Bills need edge rusher Greg Rousseau to provide more splash plays.▶ RT Ryan Van Demark: With Brown unlikely to play, what a spot this is for Van Demark to make his fourth career start going up against the still dangerous TJ Watt. After he took over for Brown late in the Houston game, Van Demark had 14 pass block snaps and he allowed two pressures and a sack to Texans star Will Anderson. Anderson also beat him on a play where he tipped a crucial third-and-1 pass to Khalil Shakir with 24 seconds left that would have gone for a first down. Like Anderson, Watt lines up almost exclusively to the offense’s right side, and Brady is going to have to give Van Demark help with a chipping TE or RB. The Bills can’t live in five-man protections all day.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement▶ WR Khalil Shakir: He got back to being Allen’s No. 1 target last week when he caught eight passes for 110 yards, and he could have a favorable matchup going against Brandin Echols who is the Steelers' slot corner. Early in the season Pittsburgh used Jalen Ramsey in the slot, but they needed help at safety so he has played almost exclusively in the back end the past four games with Echols taking over in the slot. The Steelers have played man defense 32.6% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the league so Shakir is going to have chances against Echols and he needs to win those. Among 31 slot CBs who have played at least 100 snaps, Echols' passer rating against of 115.9 is sixth-worst and his snaps per target of 4.9, which shows teams go after him, is third-lowest.
▶ DE Greg Rousseau: There are metrics that say he’s having a good season, but the eye test says otherwise. Given his size, athletic ability and draft status, Rousseau has been a mediocrity for most of his five seasons in Buffalo. He defends the run pretty well, and he can generate pressure, but there’s a lack of finish in his game and he simply has not been a difference-maker. He has games where he dominates, and others where he’s invisible. The Steelers will not have starting LT Broderick Jones so they’ll have to use either Calvin Anderson or Andrus Peat. This needs to be an advantage for Rousseau and Joey Bosa as the Bills’ pass rush has been largely incompetent for several weeks.
▶ LB Matt Milano: This has been a rough season for the former star, but with Terrel Bernard out, Milano and Shaq Thompson need to step up because the Steelers are going to test Buffalo’s sieve-like run defense. Buffalo’s LB play has been sub-standard all season and Milano has been the lowest-graded by Pro Football Focus, but last week the 31-year-old looked like his old self at times in the second half as the Buffalo defense completely shut down the Texans.
Pittsburgh Steelers who should impact the game
The physically-imposing D.K. Metcalf is Pittsburgh's No. 1 wide receiver and a potential game-breaker.▶ WR D.K. Metcalf: He has been a bit underwhelming in his first season with the Steelers as he and Rodgers haven’t really clicked. That said, Metcalf still leads the team with 70 targets, 42 catches, 573 yards and five TDs. This might be another situation where the Bills travel CB Christian Benford because at 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, he’s the only CB who has a realistic chance of matching up with Metcalf’s chiseled 6-4, 229-pound frame. If Metcalf gets across from Taron Johnson inside or Tre’Davious White outside, it’s a bad mismatch that Rodgers will exploit.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement▶ RB Jaylen Warren: The Steelers have at least two TEs on the field more than 50% of the time, and one of them is 6-6, 311-pound Darnell Washington, so it’s not great that they still rank just 27th in rushing at 97.1 yards per game. However, now they get to face Buffalo’s soft run defense and they have two functional RBs in Warren and Kenneth Gainwell who could present problems. Warren leads the team with 604 yards and first downs achieved with 46, and he’s also useful in the pass game with 25 catches for 219 yards. Gainwell had a 92-yard game against the Bears but his value comes in his 42 catches for 234 yards because he provides a checkdown for Rodgers who wants to get rid of the ball as fast as he possibly can.
▶ DT Cameron Heyward: Still a stud at the age of 36. His 29 pressures are second only to Watt and Nick Herbig who have 37 each, and he also has 21 stops which are defined that tackles that constitute a failed offensive play. Heyward is similar to Tampa Bay’s Vita Vea because he plugs the middle of the line and can keep offensive linemen away from the Steelers’ LBs which is partly why Payton Wilson (89) and Patrick Queen (83) lead the team in tackles and Ramsey is next at 56.
▶ CB Darius Slay: There’s a chance that Pittsburgh’s best CB, Joey Porter Jr., misses the game, and even if he does play, he’ll be hampered by a hip injury. If he doesn’t play, the Bills should be able to attack on the outside against Slay. Even with Porter, the Steelers have been lousy in pass defense, 31st in yards per game at 258.7. And the good news for the Bills is that the Steelers have yielded the third-most yards after catch at 1,562. Right now, Buffalo’s passing game is predicated on short throws and yards after catch. Slay is allowing a 70% completion rate into his coverage area for 396 yards.
Sal’s prediction: Bills 24, Steelers 17
This one is pretty simple for me. I don’t think the Steelers are very good and if the Bills can’t beat them - even though the game is on the road in a tough environment - then we shouldn’t even be contemplating Buffalo’s viability as a postseason team.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementIt won’t be easy because games against the Steelers rarely are, and they’re in just as desperate a situation in the standings as Buffalo because right now they’re on the outside of the top seven which makes them potentially dangerous.
But the Bills are the better team in this matchup, with the superior quarterback, and if Allen and RB James Cook can get any help from the rest of the offensive skill players, and the injury-ravaged defense can play the way it did in the second half against Houston, the Bills should win the game.
Buffalo Bills 2025 schedule
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 7 vs. Baltimore Ravens, W 41-40
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 14 at New York Jets, W 30-10
Week 3: Thursday, Sept. 18 vs. Miami Dolphins, W 31-21
Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 28 vs. New Orleans Saints, W 31-19
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 5 vs. New England Patriots, L 20-23
Week 6: Monday, Oct. 13 at Atlanta Falcons, L 14-24
Week 7: Bye Week
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 26 at Carolina Panthers, W 40-9
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, W 28-21
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 9 at Miami Dolphins, L 13-30
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 16 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, W 44-32
Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 20 at Houston Texans, L 19-23.
Week 13: Sunday, Nov. 30 at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:25 p.m.
Week 14, Sunday, Dec. 7: vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 14 at New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 21 at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Week 17: Dec. 28 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m.
Week 18: Jan. 3-4, vs. New York Jets, TBD
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at [email protected], and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThis article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Steelers prediction, keys to game with playoff implications
AdvertisementAdvertisement
