Ripple’s Bold Claim: XRP Could Capture 14% of SWIFT’s $150 Trillion by 2030

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Quick Read

• Ripple (XRP) CEO claims the XRP Ledger could handle 14% of SWIFT’s volume within five years, equating to roughly $21 trillion annually.

• Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity service processed $1.3 trillion in Q2 2025 and cuts settlement times from days to seconds.

• SWIFT’s 11,000 institution network and XRP’s 94% drop in active addresses (105K→6K) create major adoption hurdles.

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At the 2025 XRPL Apex Conference, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse made one of the most ambitious predictions in crypto. He said the XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) Ledger could handle about 14% of the volume currently processed by SWIFT within five years.

SWIFT is the messaging system that underpins much of the world's cross-border payments. This claim implies XRPL could one day facilitate transactions worth around $21 trillion each year. For believers, it signals a future where blockchain rails handle a meaningful share of global liquidity. For skeptics, it looks like marketing hype.

To assess the vision, you need to understand SWIFT's scale, Ripple's strategy, and the hurdles ahead. Here's the full picture.

SWIFT's Scale and What It's Missing

The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication isn't a payment system but a messaging network. Members send instructions that let banks settle directly. In 2021, its network processed an estimated $5 trillion per day, or roughly $150 trillion annually.

That scale gives SWIFT a stranglehold on cross-border payments. Even modest percentages of its volume equal vast sums. One percent of $150 trillion equals $1.5 trillion.

Yet SWIFT is slow and costly. Sending money through correspondent banks can take up to five days and cost $26 to $50 per transfer. The network's also a target for sanctions and political pressure.

With cross-border spending forecast to grow from $194.6 trillion in 2024 to $320 trillion by 2032, inefficiencies could get more glaring. Fintechs and blockchain companies see an opening. Even SWIFT acknowledges this by testing blockchain integrations and exploring faster payment schemes.

Ripple's Strategy: From Messaging to Liquidity

Garlinghouse argues that SWIFT has two parts: messaging and liquidity. He says liquidity, not messaging, holds most of the value. Banks must prefund accounts worldwide to settle SWIFT messages, tying up capital.

Ripple's XRP-powered On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service eliminates pre-funding by converting the sender's currency to XRP, then instantly into the recipient's currency. Transactions settle in three to five seconds, with fees around $0.0002. That compares with SWIFT's multi-day transfers and fees of $26–$50.

During the conference, Garlinghouse said that if XRP drives liquidity, it could achieve 14% of SWIFT's volume. Pro-XRP lawyer John Deaton calculated that SWIFT processes about $5 trillion daily, meaning 14% equals $700 billion per day or $175 trillion annually. Other community calculations, using an annual SWIFT volume of $150 trillion, convert 14% to $21 trillion.

Either way, the numbers are massive.

Signs of Real Adoption: ODL Volumes and Institutional Use

Ripple's building infrastructure to support this vision. Money-transfer firms and banks in corridors like Japan-Philippines and Africa use its ODL service. In Q2 2025, Ripple reported that ODL processed $1.3 trillion in transactions.

Partners like SBI Remit and Santander use XRP to reduce fees from 3–7% to roughly 0.15% and cut settlement times from 36–96 hours to seconds. That efficiency is why over 60 institutions reportedly use XRP directly for cross-border flows.

Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin launched in 2024 and quickly hit a $1 billion market cap. Because RLUSD runs on XRPL, every stablecoin transaction incurs a small XRP network fee, subtly linking stablecoin usage to XRP demand.

Regulatory clarity has also improved. In 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission settled its lawsuit against Ripple, leading to a reclassification of XRP as a commodity in the U.S. The decision triggered over $1 billion in institutional purchases and encouraged banks like Santander and SBI to integrate XRP into their payment flows.

The Skeptics' Case: SWIFT's Grip and XRP's Weak Spots

Even with these advances, capturing 14% of SWIFT's volume by 2030 looks ambitious. SWIFT's cooperative network spans 11,000+ institutions and is seen as a neutral orchestrator in the financial industry.

Its Chief Innovation Officer, Tom Zschach, has noted on LinkedIn that neutrality, governance, and legal enforceability make SWIFT hard to dislodge. He argues the future will be multi-chain, with public blockchains complementing rather than replacing SWIFT.

Another challenge is user activity on XRPL. While Ripple touts institutional partnerships, the network's retail activity collapsed in 2025. Active addresses fell 94%, from 105,000 to about 6,000 by June. That drop suggests that despite high-level deals, everyday use remains limited. Liquidity corridors rely on trading volume. If user activity stagnates, it could hamper XRP's ability to serve as an efficient bridge.

Competition is intensifying. SWIFT itself is testing not just XRP but also Hedera's Hashgraph for faster settlement. Stablecoins like USDC and CBDCs offer instant settlement without exposing users to crypto volatility. Banking regulators might prefer stablecoins over volatile tokens like XRP, especially for large treasury operations.

Meanwhile, other blockchain networks like Stellar and Visa's private tokenization platforms are courting banks with similar promises.

What This Could Mean for XRP

If XRP manages to capture 14% of SWIFT's flow it could send the token into triple digits. Channeling $21 trillion annually through XRPL could require a liquidity pool of $700 billion if each XRP token turns over 30 times a year. That math yields an XRP price around $11.90.

These projections show the gap between utility and speculation. Ripple has argued that the token's price will rise as more volume flows through the XRPL, since XRP is burned as fees and locked for liquidity.

But the bottleneck is that the token remains volatile. XRP has an annualized volatility of nearly 91% in 2025. Whether XRP can become a major liquidity protocol depends on its ability to scale adoption, maintain decentralization, and prove that its benefits outweigh that of legacy systems. The next few years will show whether Ripple's audacious target is a realistic forecast or simply an aspirational rhetoric.

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