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Chiefs vs Cowboys Computer Picks: Our Best Week 13 Player Prop Projections

2025-11-27 13:32
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Chiefs vs Cowboys Computer Picks: Our Best Week 13 Player Prop Projections

Thanksgiving Day player prop projections from Covers. Our best TNF computer picks for Chiefs vs. Cowboys today.

Chiefs vs Cowboys Computer Picks: Our Best Week 13 Player Prop ProjectionsStory byJared HochmanThu, November 27, 2025 at 1:32 PM UTC·3 min read

The middle portion of today's Thanksgiving three-peat features two teams trying to keep their seasons alive as the 6-5 Kansas City Chiefs visit the 5-5-1 Dallas Cowboys.

Our NFL player prop projections have picked out the best Thanksgiving Day props for this matchup, including both QBs lighting up their opponents.

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Chiefs vs Cowboys computer picks for Thursday Night Football

Chiefs

Cowboys

Mahomes o266.5 pass<<-110>>

Prescott o255.5 pass<<-110>>

Pacheco o29.5 rush<<-110>>

Williams o8.5 rec<<+100>>

Rice o74.5 rec<<-110>>

Lamb o78.5 rec<<-110>>

Kelce u60.5 rec<<-110>>

Ferguson o34.5 rec<<-110>>

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Chiefs computer picks

Patrick Mahomes Over 266.5 passing yards (-110)

Projection: 287.8 yards

Mahomes has topped this total in six of his last eight games... and our projections expect him to post a big number again vs. Dallas' suspect pass defense.

Alternate-total bet275+ yards (+105) - This prop shows very strong value.

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Isiah Pacheco Over 29.5 rushing yards (-110)

Projection: 35.4 yards

Pacheco has not played in a month, but he hit 30+ yards in each of his last six games before his injury.

Rashee Rice Over 74.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 86 yards

Rice has hit the 80-yard mark in three of his last four games — including 141 last week — and we're projecting him to finish in the 80s again today.

Alternate-total bet80+ yards (+105) - Another strong value at this price.

Travis Kelce Under 60.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 50.5 yards

Our projections don't expect the future HoF TE to have a big game on Thanksgiving, forecasting him to finish below his posted total.

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Cowboys computer picks

Dak Prescott Over 255.5 passing yards (-110)

Projection: 292.4 yards

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Dak has hit 250 yards in eight of 11 games this year, and we're projecting him to go well beyond that number this afternoon.

Alternate-total bet275+ yards (+145) - This number displays an incredible value.

Javonte Williams Over 8.5 receiving yards (+100)

Projection: 13.8 yards

We're projecting Williams to finish below his rushing total, but do like him to post double-digit receiving yards for the second straight game.

CeeDee Lamb Over 78.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 87.6 yards

After several uncharacteristic drops last week, we're expecting Lamb to bounce back with a big game and go Over his yardage total in the process.

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Jake Ferguson Over 34.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 40.5 yards

We're projecting the reliable Dallas TE to again be involved in the offense, topping a receiving total that is below his per-game average this year.

Alternate-total bet40+ yards (+120) - This prop shows a small amount of value.

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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

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