There was one upset in the Big Ten last weekend as Wisconsin beat a previously ranked Illinois team. Penn State showed that their win over Michigan State wasn’t a fluke by convincingly beating what had been a decent Nebraska team. And USC lost their chance at being in the playoffs by losing on the road in Eugene.
Polls
There are still 5 Big Ten teams are ranked in the CFP rankings-and there are 3 are in the top 6. Michigan moved up 3 places and USC’s loss dropped them just 2 places. Here are the Big Ten teams in the CFP:
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOhio State: 1
Indiana: 2
Oregon: 6
Michigan: 15
USC: 17
The full list of CFP rankings can be found here: https://collegefootballplayoff.com/rankings.aspx
Here are the ranks in the other two major polls. (AP/Coaches)
Ohio State (1/1)
Indiana (2/2)
Oregon (5/5)
Michigan (15/15)
USC (19/20)
Washington (#31), Iowa (#32), and Illinois (#37) received votes in the AP poll. Washington (#28), Iowa (#29), and Illinois and Penn State (tied at #34) received votes in the Coaches poll.
On a side note, UC Davis, which UW beat earlier this season, is #11 in the FCS Coaches poll.
Composite Ranking
This week the Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) includes 86 different rankings (as of the writing of this article), including the AP and Coaches polls. The following “Cool Chart” shows the changes since week 7 for the teams in the Big Ten.
(Note that last week the graph had Indiana at #1. That changed after publication as more rankings were added.) For the last month and a half, the same 3 teams have remained at the top of not just the Big Ten, but among the top in all of FBS.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementMichigan State and Purdue remain the bottom 2 teams-that hasn’t changed in the last month. What has changed is Wisconsin. With wins over Washington and Illinois, they have moved up to #12 in the Big Ten (#59 nationally). Penn State has also moved up a lot since week 7; they are now at #36.
At one point this season (week 7), Nebraska was considered a top-25 team. Now they aren’t in the top-40.
About 3/4ths of the rankings in the Massey Composite have UW as a top-25 team.
Other Rankings
The table below lists the rankings for each of the Big Ten teams in 8 different rankings including the Massey Composite (which is used for the chart above). SP+, ESPN’s FPI, FEI, Sagarin, CBS Sports, Kelly Ford (KFord), and SRS.
School
Composite
SP+
FPI
FEI
Sagarin
CBS
KFord
SRS
Illinois
31
32
32
26
31
38
27
25
Indiana
2
2
2
1
4
2
2
3
Iowa
25
21
22
20
21
31
21
22
Maryland
80
68
70
64
80
80
68
72
Michigan
16
22
18
19
22
15
19
16
Michigan State
90
91
67
73
65
87
64
85
Minnesota
61
71
66
71
59
52
63
69
Nebraska
42
39
39
40
45
42
34
54
Northwestern
56
62
56
50
61
55
56
55
Ohio State
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
Oregon
4
4
4
3
3
6
4
7
Penn State
36
19
19
18
12
53
15
32
Purdue
100
95
81
79
90
100
75
91
Rutgers
70
72
61
70
64
70
60
66
UCLA
82
85
79
72
76
74
73
76
USC
15
19
11
13
16
18
11
12
Washington
19
15
21
17
19
26
20
17
Wisconsin
59
88
58
52
46
73
55
64
Illinois, Maryland, and Nebraska dropped in all of the rankings, in some cases by more than 10 places. UCLA dropped in all but one (they were unchanged in SP+). Washington and Wisconsin were the only two teams that went up in all of the rankings. Wisconsin went up by more than 10 in half of the rankings. Penn State went up in all but one of the rankings (they were also unchanged in SP+).
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementPenn State may have gone up in most of the rankings, but there is still no agreement on where they should be ranked. They are a top-20 team in 5 of the rankings, but then they are #53 in the CBS Sports ranking.
Similarly Wisconsin is as high as #46 in Sagarin’s ranking but #88 in SP+. Michigan State and Purdue are the only other teams that vary by more than 20 places. (Nebraska varies by 20 places.)
Washington is in the top-25 in all but one of the rankings-and they are #26 in that other one.
F+ Rankings
Here are the F+ rankings (combination of FEI and SP+) after the week 13 games.
School
F+ (Overall)
F+ Off
F+ Def
F+ ST
Illinois
27
17
57
13
Indiana
2
7
3
9
Iowa
20
60
7
1
Maryland
66
96
41
29
Michigan
19
25
18
100
Michigan State
77
75
78
101
Minnesota
71
73
64
90
Nebraska
37
53
44
16
Northwestern
58
67
53
19
Ohio State
1
11
1
40
Oregon
3
5
5
28
Penn State
18
20
26
2
Purdue
87
92
80
31
Rutgers
72
36
118
51
UCLA
89
83
92
36
USC
16
3
49
77
Washington
17
15
22
86
Wisconsin
70
111
30
67
The sort-of good news is that UW is not last or even second-to-last in Special Teams; the two Michigan teams hold those ‘honors’. Minnesota is also below UW’s Special Teams.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementIndiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, and Washington are the teams in the top-25 in both offense and defense. Penn State is close-they are top 25 in offense and #26 in defense.
Week 14 Games
This week all 18 Big Ten teams are in action. This is the first weekend that has been true since October 11 (week 7). Most are playing their rivalry games (I don’t think Maryland-Michigan State is a rivalry game). Here are the win percentages from different sources for each of the games.
Visitor
ESPN FPI
Massey
KFord
SP+
Home
ESPN FPI
Massey
KFord
SP+
Iowa
60.1%
68%
61%
60%
Nebraska
39.9%
32%
39%
40%
Oregon
75.1%
73%
69%
66%
Washington
24.9%
27%
31%
34%
Wisconsin
51.2%
52%
49%
33%
Minnesota
48.8%
48%
51%
67%
UCLA
5.0%
12%
5%
4%
USC
95.0%
88%
95%
96%
Penn State
82.8%
88%
83%
82%
Rutgers
17.2%
12%
17%
18%
Ohio State
78.2%
87%
79%
82%
Michigan
21.8%
13%
21%
18%
Northwestern
27.1%
21%
25%
24%
Illinois
72.9%
79%
75%
76%
Maryland
45.5%
45%
46%
58%
Michigan State
54.5%
55%
54%
42%
Indiana
97.0%
98%
98%
98%
Purdue
3.0%
2%
2%
2%
There is good agreement on all but 2 of the games. The first is with the Minnesota-Wisconsin game. Two of the 4 sites have Wisconsin as the favorite; the other two have Minnesota. The other one is the Maryland-Michigan State game. SP+ has Maryland as the favorite while the other sites have Minnesota as the favorite.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementFinal Notes
Normally we would have a good idea of how good or bad teams are after each have played 11 games. But this year that is not the case with some of the teams in the Big Ten. Both Penn State and Wisconsin have played poorly at times, but they also have played much better than their records indicate.
The winner of the Penn State-Rutgers game will be bowl-eligible. The Big Ten will then have 12 teams eligible to play in a bowl game. And it looks like 3 or 4 of the Big Ten teams could make the CFP.
If both Indiana and Ohio State win this weekend, they will play each other in the Big Ten Championship game. If either loses, then either Oregon or Michigan (or both) could sneak into that game.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThere was some debate earlier in the season about whether UW should be ranked in the top 25. But no sooner did they get ranked, they then lost their next game. They are not currently ranked in the top-25 in the major polls, but there should be no question that they will be ranked if they beat Oregon on Saturday (and continue to be unranked if they lose).
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