3 Props You Need to Bet on the Thanksgiving Slate

Finding value in player props is one of the most consistent ways to beat the books. Each week, FTN highlights three props identified by our proprietary model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. Below, you’ll see the posted line, FTN’s projection, and the edge percentage, followed by context on why this prop makes sense. To see all the best props of the week, make sure you visit our prop tool.

Prop Bet 1: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 69.5 Rushing Yards

-114 FTN Projection: 74.4 Edge: 2.3%

Gibbs is coming off one of the best games you will see, rushing for 219 yards on only 15 carries. He continues to dominate to the point where it is becoming difficult to keep him off the field. While the Packers are strong against the pass, they are surprisingly average against the run, ranking only seventeenth in DVOA. This matchup sets up well for another productive game from Gibbs.

Prop Bet 2: George Pickens Over 72.5 Receiving Yards

-115 FTN Projection: 82.6 Edge: 7.0%

George Pickens is now second in the NFL in receiving yards and continues to make a major impact even with CeeDee Lamb back in the lineup. Lamb demands so much defensive attention that it consistently opens one-on-one matchups for Pickens, and he has been winning those all season. With Lamb pulling coverage away, Pickens is in position to feast again on Thanksgiving.

Prop Bet 3: Lamar Jackson Over 26.5 Rushing Yards

-113 FTN Projection: 43.4 Edge: 15.4%

Lamar may be running less recently, but he loves to run against the Bengals. He has rushed for 30 or more yards against Cincinnati in eight straight games, last failing to reach that mark in Week 6 of 2020. Lamar was a little more aggressive on the ground last week with seven rushing attempts. With Joe Burrow back for Cincinnati, the Ravens will need to score to keep pace, which should lead to more designed runs and more aggression from Lamar.

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Final Thoughts

NFL betting is about finding small edges that add up over the course of the season. FTN’s Bet of the Week is just one example of the actionable insights our model delivers. Lock in this week’s best bet, and check back every week for the next free NFL best play.