ESPN CFP predictions entering Rivalry Week

ESPN CFP predictions entering Rivalry WeekStory byOwen Hillman, UGA WireWed, November 26, 2025 at 5:31 PM UTC·4 min read

With the College Football Playoff determined in a few weeks and the last week of the regular season, the time for teams to bulk up their playoff resume is almost over. ESPN's projection models can predict which teams will make the playoff, if people splice the numbers carefully. How much better are the Georgia Bulldogs after their 35-3 win vs. Charlotte? Here's the update after Week 13.

Conference champions are determined first, since the conference champions from all Power Four conferences and the highest ranked Group of Five conference champion are guaranteed to make it in. For the Power Four conferences, we look at likelihood of winning the conference. Georgia (10-1) had a 17.9% of winning the conference the last time we looked at ESPN's projections, but now they have about a 29.7% chance, ranking them second in the SEC. Georgia's projected to lose in the SEC championship.

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Only one projected conference champion changed since after Week 11. Ohio State (11-0, 48.7%), is projected to win the Big Ten, Texas Tech (10-1, 66.2%) is expected to win the Big 12, and Alabama (9-2, 40.7%) is still projected to win the SEC despite losing to Oklahoma in Week 12.

However, the ACC has a new favorite. The SMU Mustangs (8-3, 55.2%) are expected to win the ACC due to Georgia Tech (9-2, 0.3%) losing to Pitt on Saturday. It shows how crazy the ACC is that SMU is projected to win the conference over both 9-2 Georgia Tech and 9-2 Virginia despite having a worse record than them. No one has clinched a spot in the ACC championship yet, so all this could change after Rivalry Week.

The losers of each conference championship would be Indiana (11-0, 43.3%), Georgia, BYU (10-1, 31.3%), and Virginia (9-2, 28.9%) by this logic.

For at large bids, we use playoff percentage to determine who makes the 12-team field. Indiana (99.8%), Texas A&M (11-0, 99.4%), Georgia (92.4%), and Oregon (10-1, 97.5%) are essentially guaranteed a playoff spot, while Ole Miss (10-1, 82.0%), Oklahoma (9-2, 78.4%) and Notre Dame (9-2, 73.1%) are almost guaranteed.

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The Group of Five team uses both of these percentages. Conference winning percentage is the first qualifier, because a Group of Five team that doesn't win their own conference is not making the playoff. The American's North Texas (10-1, 68.4%) and Sun Belt's James Madison (10-1, 79.4%) both stand out. However, the playoff percentage decides who makes the playoff. As a result, the James Madison Dukes (56.3%) beat out the North Texas Mean Green (55.7%) for the final playoff spot.

With seeding, we turn to projected record. Georgia has a projected 11.2-1.5 record, giving them the fifth best record in the CFP. As a result, they'd be the No. 5 seed.

There is an exception with this rule. Despite Ohio State projected to win the Big Ten (48.7%), Indiana is still projected to finish with a better record (12.4-0.6) than Ohio State (12.3-0.5). The same can be said for Texas A&M (11.7-0.8) and Georgia (11.2-1.5) vs. Alabama (10.1-2.6).

In these situations, it's best to round up or down to see what those decimals would translate to. Ohio State and Indiana would have the same record, by that logic, so Ohio State would be the better seeding since they would've beaten Indiana. However, Texas A&M and Georgia would still ranked above Alabama due to Texas A&M's record rounding up to 12-0 (they don't make the SEC championship), Georgia's down to 11-2, and Alabama's at 10-3.

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For national championship winner, that goes to the team with the highest national championship percentage. Ohio State (27.1%) is still the favorite to win the national championship, defeating the Indiana Hoosiers (24.2%) in a potential Big Ten championship rematch.

ESPN Playoff Projections After Week 11

Seeding

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Lincoln Kienholz (3) takes a snap during the NCAA football game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Nov. 22, 2025. Ohio State won 42-9.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (12.3-0.5)*

2. Indiana Hoosiers (12.4-0.6)

3. Texas A&M Aggies (11.7-0.8)

4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (11.6-1.4)*

5. Georgia Bulldogs (11.2-1.5)

6. Ole Miss Rebels (10.8-1.3)

7. Oregon Ducks (10.8-1.4)

8. Alabama Crimson Tide (10.1-2.6)*

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10.0-2.0)

10. Oklahoma Sooners (9.7-2.3)

11. SMU Mustangs (9.4-3.5)*

12. James Madison Dukes (11.7-1.3)*

First Four Out: North Texas Mean Green (11.6-1.4), BYU Cougars (11.2-1.7), Miami Hurricanes (9.8-2.3), Virginia Cavaliers (10.1-2.7)

*Conference Champions

New teams are italicized.

First Round Matchups

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - JANUARY 01: Quarterback Mac Jones #10 of the Alabama Crimson Tide looks for an open receiver against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the third quarter of the 2021 College Football Playoff Semifinal Game at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Capital One at AT&T Stadium on January 01, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Georgia

No. 11 SMU vs. No. 6 Ole Miss

No. 10 Oklahoma vs. No. 7 Oregon

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No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 8 Alabama

Projected National Champion

Former Indiana coach Lee Corso picks the Ohio State Buckeyes for the win over his former Hoosiers on ESPN's College Game Day before Thursday's NCAA Division I football game at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind., on August 31, 2017.

No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes

Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes

This article originally appeared on UGA Wire: ESPN CFP predictions after Week 13 games

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