5 reasons Michigan could beat Ohio State on Saturday

All season long I've somewhat complained while writing this column. It's been fun, sure, to try and think of where other teams had an advantage over Ohio State. But I never once found a reason I honestly thought was compelling. I was searching for the logic behind a 1% chance of occurring. Ohio State is once again a favorite this week, and by a decent margin, but an upset isn't unimaginable. It's certainly horrifying for Buckeye fans to contemplate, but if it does happen no one will look back on it as one of the biggest upsets in history. So, what are the biggest reasons Ohio State can lose this week? Let's break them down.

1. Michigan is in Ryan Day's head

Day has admitted, more than once, how much he wants to beat Michigan and how hard it's been that he's lost four straight to them. That kind of frustration can lead to inspiration, yes--but it can also lead to mistakes. Day wants to beat Michigan so badly that he might out-think himself on coaching decisions. And given how rarely he loses, second-guessing his first instinct is probably a bad idea.

2. Playing style

Michigan plays a different style of football than any other team Ohio State has faced this year. That's not a bad thing, per se, but it does mean that the Buckeyes aren't used to facing teams like this in the trenches. This Michigan team isn't as tough or talented as the past few years, but Ohio State had extreme skill advantages last year, and that didn't matter in the end either.

3. Day might feel obligated to change styles

Ohio State tried to play bully-ball against Michigan last year to prove a point. His long-standing feud with Lou Holtz, weird as it's been at times, made an impact in The Game last year. Day felt like he needed to prove that the Buckeyes could play physical football in the trenches, not just score points with elite skill position players. We would hope that Day has learned his lesson about getting out of his own head and trying to prove something after losing to Michigan then winning the National Championship last year, but if he hasn't then this could take Ohio State out of its usual rhythm for this game––just like last year.

4. Questions at wide receiver

Are Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate healthy? Will either of them play? And if they do, will they be at 100%? We still don't know, but the offensive rhythm hasn't quite been the same without them. That hasn't mattered the last few games, but Michigan does have a better defense than UCLA or Rutgers. Maybe missing them could matter against this defense.

5. Michigan needs this game more

I said a variation of this last week, but this week I believe it much more. Ohio State is going to the College Football Playoff no matter what. And while they might still play inspired because of the rivalry, the fact remains that the Buckeyes have to be thinking bigger than this game. If there's an injury risk to Tate, Smith, Julian Sayin, or anyone else, Ohio State has to be more careful. Michigan has no such issues. Winning this game probably gets Michigan to the Playoff. Losing it means (likely) the Citrus Bowl. And every player and coach in this game will know it.

This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: 5 reasons Michigan could beat Ohio State on Saturday