Aaron Schatz’s Week 13 2025 NFL Picks

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! The NFL ended up with a really interesting slate of games for Turkey Day and a good matchup for leftovers: 8-3 Chicago with 8-3 Philadelphia on Black Friday. The games on Sunday seem less exciting but they present more value, so that’s where we are going with this week’s picks.

(All odds are per BetMGM.)

Los Angeles Rams -10 at Carolina Panthers

The Los Angeles Rams moved into the top spot in my DVOA ratings this week. In fact, the Rams are now No. 1 in both offense and defense. They’re held back a little by special teams, which happens to be the least consistent and predictive of the three units. Meanwhile, the Panthers are down at 27th in DVOA despite the 6-6 record. They upset the Packers, but for the most part the Panthers have lost big when they face good teams this season. I’m counting on it happening again Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers -4.5 at Cleveland Browns

Shedeur Sanders has simply not played well in his first two starts for the Browns, despite the victory over the Raiders last week. He wasn’t the worst quarterback in the league in Week 12 the way he was in Week 11, but he was bad and heavily dependent on a couple of explosive (and unlikely to be repeated) plays. The Browns defense and Myles Garrett will surely get their sacks against the 49ers but otherwise there’s a big difference between the 49ers offense (seventh in DVOA) and the Raiders offense they shut down last week (31st in DVOA).

New York Jets +2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Jets are… not as bad as their record? Yes! They rank 26th in DVOA at 2-9. A big issue here is special teams, where the Jets rank first and the Falcons are 28th. Special teams plays are high variability but can lead to upsets. The Falcons are 19th in DVOA overall but have been worse with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, and we still don’t know if No. 1 wide receiver Drake London will be back from his injury. Buy this to three points if you can.

Seattle Seahawks -11 vs. Minnesota Vikings

On one hand, backup quarterbacks have a weird tendency to surprise in their first starts. On the other hand, the record of undrafted rookie quarterbacks is particularly bad. So I’m not a big believer in Max Brosmer when he makes his first NFL start against the No. 2 team in DVOA, the Seattle Seahawks.

New York Giants +7.5 at New England Patriots

The Giants aren’t particularly good, but DVOA says the Patriots are overrated. They’re heavily dependent on explosive plays and fourth-down success, and they’ve played the easiest schedule in the NFL so far this season. Whether it is Jaxson Dart or Jameis Winston under center, expect the Giants to keep it close against a Patriots pass defense that ranks just 27th in DVOA.