Eric Froton, Rotoworld Bet StaffTue, November 25, 2025 at 4:26 PM UTC·11 min read“The Game” is this Saturday at The Big House as No. 1 Ohio State (11-0) travels to Ann Arbor to face No. 15 Michigan (9-2). The Buckeyes enter the game undefeated. They are seeking revenge after being stunned by the unranked Wolverines last year, a loss that denied them a spot in the Big Ten Championship and marked Michigan's fourth straight win in the rivalry.
While Ohio State boasts the nation's top-ranked scoring and total defense, Michigan has shown an offensive spark of late putting up 443 yards and 45 points in a win last week at Maryland. Bryce Underwood showed a consistent maturity that had not been apparent previously. A win by Underwood and co. extends bragging rights and also may well carry with it an invite to the College Football Playoff.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementMeanwhile, Ohio State is battling injuries as they continue their assault on the sport. WRs Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith are expected to play but are not 100%. Tate has not suited up since November 1, and Smith sat last week as well after playing just 22 snaps against UCLA the week prior. That said, the Buckeyes' defense is the best in the land and can make up for alot of deficiencies on offense should Julian Sayin struggle with or without his all-world wideouts.
Fun Fact: For all the success he has enjoyed at Ohio State, Ryan Day is 1-4 all-time against the Wolverines.
Lets dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.
Game Details and How to Watch No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan
Date: Saturday, November 29, 2025
Time: 12:00PM Eastern
Site: Michigan Stadium
City: Ann Arbon, MI
TV/Streaming: FOX
Game Odds for No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Ohio State Buckeyes (-395), Michigan Wolverines (+310)
Spread: Ohio State -10 (-112)
Total: 43.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Ohio State
Head Coach: Ryan Day2025 Record: 11-0 (8-0)Offense Ranking: 6Defense Ranking: 1Strength of Schedule: 39
Ohio State has put together another dominant campaign under Ryan Day, entering The Game at 11-0 and ranked No. 1 overall in SP+, powered by the nation’s top-rated defense and a Top 10 offense. The Buckeyes have been ruthlessly efficient, ranking first nationally in success rate (55.3%) and points per scoring opportunity (5.6) on offense, while defensively allowing just 3.76 yards per play and 0.77 points per drive, both of which are tops in FBS. Quarterback efficiency and a sturdy offensive line (just 1.5% pressure rate allowed, 2nd-best nationally) have driven a balanced attack averaging 6.97 yards per play despite a methodical tempo (31.5 seconds per snap, 134th). On the other side, Jim Knowles’ defense has terrorized opponents with an 18.3% havoc rate and 9.0% sack rate, thriving both in man and zone coverage while yielding just 4.0 yards per dropback. With their playoff berth essentially secured, Ohio State enters Ann Arbor as the clear favorite, eyeing an undefeated regular season and national title run.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Ohio State Buckeyes Offense
Ohio State’s offense ranks 6th in Offensive SP+ behind a unit that leads the nation in success rate (55.3%) and down-set conversion rate (82.9%). The Buckeyes are elite through the air, pacing the country in passing success rate (59.3%) and completion percentage (78.9%), while generating 8.8 yards per dropback and ranking 2nd in EPA per play. Their offensive line has been nearly flawless in pass protection, allowing a microscopic 1.5% pressure rate (2nd nationally), giving QB Julian Sayin time to operate within one of the most efficient passing structures in college football. Though their tempo ranks among the slowest nationally (134th in pace), Ohio State’s precision and explosiveness per drive make them a relentless, methodical scoring machine built on efficiency and control.
Ohio State Player to Watch on Offense: WR Jeremiah Smith
A human supernova, Jeremiah Smith leads OSU with 86 targets, 69 catches, 902 yards, and 10 touchdowns while maintaining an elite 80.2% catch rate. He’s averaging 10.5 yards per target and converting 60.9% of his receptions into first downs with only a 2.3% drop rate. Smith has proven versatile within the route tree, splitting snaps between the perimeter (65%) and slot (35%) while generating a balanced 44% short, 28% intermediate, and 28% deep target distribution. His ability to win at all three levels and finish drives has made him one of the most polished and reliable young receivers in the country.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Ohio State Buckeyes Defense
Ohio State’s defense has been nothing short of dominant, ranking 1st nationally in Defensive SP+ and allowing just 3.76 yards per play and 0.77 points per drive, both best in the FBS. The Buckeyes’ front seven thrives on disruption, generating an 18.3% havoc rate with a sparkling 9.0% sack rate while ranking Top 10 nationally in both rush success allowed (33.9%) and EPA per rush (-0.19). On passing downs, they suffocate opponents with the nation’s lowest yards per dropback (4.0) and a Raw QBR allowed of 28.5, effectively throwing a blanket on opposing pass games. This unit is adept at limiting explosives (just 3.1% of plays gaining 20+ yards) while forcing opponents into long, unmanageable drives that rarely cross midfield.
Ohio State Player to Watch on Defense: LB Caleb Downs
Safety Caleb Downs is arguably the best defensive back in the country, combining elite run support with sharp coverage instincts. He has logged 48 tackles, 8 havoc plays, and 5 TFLs, while also recording 2 interceptions and allowing just 47.1% completions into his coverage. Downs has limited opposing quarterbacks to a 6.6 defensive QBR, one of the best marks among Power Five safeties, yielding only 3.4 yards per coverage snap. His blend of physical tackling (88.9% success rate) and sound positioning in deep zones has made him a cornerstone of the Buckeyes’ defensive resurgence.
Michigan Wolverines
Head Coach: Sherrone Moore2025 Record: 9-2Offense Ranking: 45Defense Ranking: 10Strength of Schedule: 20
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementMichigan has rebounded from a rocky 2024 campaign to post a 9–2 (7–1 Big Ten) record, powered by a ground-based offense and a rugged, opportunistic defense. The Wolverines rank 22nd in SP+ (45th on offense, 10th on defense), leaning on a dominant ground game that averages 6.0 yards per carry and ranks 9th in rushing success rate, while the offensive line allows pressure on just 1.7% of dropbacks. Defensively, Michigan remains formidable under DC Wink Martindale, ranking 15th in yards per play allowed (4.67) with a 17.7% havoc rate and a Top 30 mark in tackling efficiency. Although they’ve lacked explosive passing consistency, their physicality and ball control (Top 20 in both success rate and time per play) have kept them in the Big Ten title race heading into “The Game” against No. 1 Ohio State.
The Michigan Wolverines Offense
Michigan’s offense under Sherrone Moore has embraced a physical, ground-first identity, ranking 9th nationally in rushing success rate (51.1%) and 12th in yards per carry (6.0) behind one of the nation’s most formidable offensive lines (1.7% pressure rate, 8th). The Wolverines excel on standard downs with a 51.5% success rate, using their power run game to stay ahead of schedule while allowing quarterback play-action opportunities to thrive. Their passing game is steady but not explosive, ranking 35th in success rate (45.7%) and averaging 7.2 yards per dropback, relying on efficiency rather than volume. With strong discipline (37 penalty yards per game, 12th) and a Top 15 yards-per-play mark (6.43), Michigan’s offense methodically controls tempo and field position.
Michigan Player To Watch: QB Bryce Underwood
Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood has proven to be a credible B10 signal caller as a true freshman, starting all 11 games while combining for over 2,500 total yards with 14 total touchdowns. Through the air, he’s completed 62.2% of his passes for 2,166 yards and a 7.9 ANY/A, balancing efficiency with downfield intent at 12.7 yards per completion. On the ground, Underwood adds a crucial layer to the Wolverines’ offense, rushing for 393 yards and 5 touchdowns at 7.56 yards per carry with a 61.5% success rate and an explosive 25% rate of 10+ yard runs. His blend of arm talent, mobility, and poise has given Michigan’s attack a modern dimension, even as he continues refining his competency against pressure.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Michigan Wolverines Defense
Michigan’s defense remains one of the Big Ten’s most fundamentally sound units, ranking 10th nationally in Defensive SP+ and allowing just 4.67 yards per play (15th). The Wolverines excel at limiting explosive plays, as opponents gain 20+ yards on only 5.9% of snaps while maintaining a Top 25 rushing success rate allowed (37.9%) and tackle success rate (87.6%). Their 17.7% havoc rate and Top 15 pressure metrics reflect Wink Martindale’s aggressive front, which generates disruption without heavy blitzing. Though the defense is less dominant in short-yardage situations and has allowed moderate efficiency on passing downs, its physicality, gap discipline, and strong red zone performance (52.9% TD rate) keep opponents from finishing drives.
Michigan Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Derrick Moore
Edge rusher Derrick Moore has been the engine of Michigan’s pass rush, tallying 9.5 sacks and 28 pressures on 171 rush attempts, producing a stellar 16.4% pressure rate. His combination of burst and power has translated into consistent havoc, ranking first on the team with 15 total havoc plays, 10 TFLs, and 11 sacks created. Moore’s quick first step (2.55 seconds to first pressure) and strong finishing ability on key downs (17.5% third-down pressure rate) make him one of the Big Ten’s most efficient edge defenders. With elite tackling efficiency (91.9% tackle rate) and two forced fumbles, Moore has emerged as a complete defensive threat who disrupts both run and pass phases at a high level.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementMichigan and Ohio State Team Stats, Betting Trends
Ohio State is 9-1-1 ATS this season
Michigan is 4-7 ATS this season
The OVER has cashed 4 times in Ohio State’s 11 games (4-7)
The OVER has cashed 6 times in Michigan’s 11 games (6-5)
Michigan is 5-0 at The Big House this season
Michigan is 0-2 as an underdog this season with losses on the road at Oklahoma in Week 2 and at USC in Week 6
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Ohio State -10 (-112)
Despite being at home against an OSU team that Michigan has defeated in three consecutive seasons, the prospect of starting a true freshman QB (talented though he may be) against this defense is a daunting task. The Michigan run game has been without starting RB Justice Haynes and his complimentary backfield mate Jordan Marshall missed last game as well. The Buckeyes allowed a season-high 16 points to Illinois and haven’t scored under 34 points in their last seven games. I think the UM win streak ends this week and am laying the -10 points with OSU in a classic revenge spot.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Ohio State and Michigan
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Ohio State Buckeyes at -10.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total UNDER 43.5.
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