Alabama Crimson Tide's Nightmare CFP Scenario Revealed

By Matthew Schmidt

Contributing Sports Writer

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The Alabama Crimson Tide have certainly flipped the script this season. After a horrendous Week 1 loss to Florida State, many had Kalen DeBoer's squad dead and buried, but Alabama has responded by going 9-1 since then, including four wins over ranked SEC opponents.

The Crimson Tied are sitting at 9-2 overall heading into their regular-season finale against Auburn on Saturday, and it's looking like Alabama is a shoo-in for the College Football Playoff so long as it beats the Tigers ... right?

Read more: Dan Lanning, Oregon Receive Dire Warning Before USC Matchup

Not necessarily.

Dan Santaromita of The Athletic has revealed a nightmare scenario for the Crimson Tide in which they could beat Auburn, finish 10-2 and still miss the CFP.

"Alabama is -210 to beat Auburn, but -185 to make the CFP, which leaves a tiny bit of room for scenarios where the Crimson Tide win and don’t get in (BYU winning the Big 12 and Michigan beating Ohio State are on that list)," Santaromita wrote.

...

Considering that Michigan has won four straight matchups against Ohio State, DeBoer and Co. may have to sweat it out a little bit this coming weekend. Plus, while BYU was routed by Texas Tech earlier in the month, the Cougars are still good enough to capture Big 12 title.

Right now, Alabama is 10th in the CFP rankings. BYU is 11th, and Michigan is just on the outskirts at No. 15. Of course, 12 teams get into the playoff, so at the moment, the Crimson Tide should be feeling fairly comfortable. But as Santaromita noted, that could change depending on what happens around them.

Plus, while Alabama absolutely should beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl, that is absolutely no guarantee. This one of the fiercest rivalries in sports, and while the Tigers are 5-6, don't think for a second this will be incredibly easy for the Crimson Tide.

Read more: Wild CFP Scenario Unveiled for Arch Manning, Texas Longhorns

Auburn would love nothing more than to spoil Alabama's season, so the Crimson Tide can't just waltz into Jordan-Hare Stadium and expect a victory this Sunday.

If Alabama convincingly beats Auburn, then it can probably rest easy, but the Crimson Tide can't fully relax until they actually see themselves ranked inside the top 12 to end the year.

For more on the NCAA, head to Newsweek Sports.

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