Benchmarking Da Bears: Week 12

When the WCG team was asked to make our record predictions following the 2025 NFL schedule release, I wanted to take a cautious approach to the season, despite feeling optimistic about the coaching staff and the new additions to the roster. I’d simply been burnt by this team hanging the “offseason champs” banner too many times to let it get the best of me once again. My prediction was for a modest improvement to 7-10, and with six games left to be played in the regular season, I’ll start the Thanksgiving week festivities by saying I’m so thankful for the Chicago Bears to have already proven me wrong. As for week 12, specifically, the Bears entered the contest with the Pittsburgh Steelers notably down several defensive starters, while Pittsburgh was missing starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers (suspicious timing). It seemed like if there was going to be a game to lean on the offense, this would be it, and to varying levels of success, it paid off:

Quarterback

Caleb Williams again had an up-and-down game, with higher peaks and lower valleys against one of the tougher opponents he’s faced on the year. I’d argue that this game featured Caleb’s worst play of his young career, a T.J. Watt strip sack in the end zone that resulted in a Steelers touchdown. That was, however, Caleb’s only sack on the day while facing a pretty strong pass rush. In addition to avoiding sacks, Williams was also able to throw for three touchdowns on the day. Accuracy continues to be the primary concern in Williams play at this point of the season.

Caleb Williams

Comp: 2022 Jared Goff

Benchmark Statistics:

Games

Starts

Completions

Pass Attempts

Completion %

Pass Yards

Pass TDs

INTs

Pass Y/A

Pass Y/G

Pass Rating

Sacks

Rush Attempts

Rush Yards

Rush TDs

Rush Y/A

Rush Y/G

QBR

Fumbles

Awards

Goff

17

17

382

587

65.1%

4438

29

7

7.6

261.1

99.3

23

29

73

–

2.5

4.3

63.3

7

Pro Bowl

Williams

11

11

213

360

59.2%

2568

16

4

7.1

233.5

91.3

17

56

293

3

5.2

26.6

55.3

6

–

Williams – Projected

17

17

329.2

556.4

59.2%

3968.7

24.7

6.2

7.1

233.5

91.6

26.3

86.5

452.8

4.6

5.2

26.6

9.3

–

Running Backs

The running backs only carried the ball twenty times in this matchup as Ben Johnson appeared to prefer attacking the Pittsburgh defense through the air. What’s more interesting is that Kyle Monangai actually out-carried D’Andre Swift 12 to 8. The rookie was the more productive back, averaging 4.0 yards per carry to Swift’s 1.9. Monangai also added the Bears’ lone rushing score, his third game in a row finding the endzone.

D’Andre Swift

Comp: 2022 D’Andre Swift

Benchmark Statistics:

Games

Starts

Rush Attempts

Rush Yards

Rush TDs

Rush Y/A

Rush Y/G

Targets

Receptions

Rec Yards

Rec Y/R

Rec TDs

R/G

Rec Y/G

Fumbles

Awards

Swift (DET)

14

8

99

542

5

5.5

38.7

70

48

389

8.1

3

3.4

27.8

1

–

Swift (CHI)

10

10

142

649

4

4.6

64.9

34

24

224

9.3

1

2.4

22.4

2

–

Swift (CHI) – Projected

16

16

227.2

1038.4

6.4

4.6

64.9

54.4

38.4

358.4

9.3

1.6

2.4

22.4

3.2

–

Kyle Monangai, DJ Moore, Roschon Johnson, etc.

Comp: 2024 David Montgomery

Benchmark Statistics:

Games

Starts

Rush Attempts

Rush Yards

Rush TDs

Rush Y/A

Rush Y/G

Targets

Receptions

Rec Yards

Rec Y/R

Rec TDs

R/G

Rec Y/G

Fumbles

Awards

Montgomery

14

14

185

775

12

4.2

55.4

38

36

341

9.5

–

2.6

24.4

2

–

Bears

11

1

124

552

6

4.5

50.2

17

10

97

9.7

–

0.9

8.8

–

–

Bears – Projected

17

1

191.6

853.1

9.3

4.5

50.2

26.3

15.5

149.9

9.7

–

0.9

8.8

–

–

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet caught his only target for a short gain, but the more relevant story to come out of the TE room is the continued momentum of Colston Loveland. Loveland was targeted five times, catching four of those, including his third touchdown of the season. The emergence of Chicago’s 1st round pick is something that will pay off not only as the games mean more this season, but for years to come.

Cole Kmet

Comp: 2021 T.J. Hockenson

Benchmark Statistics:

Games

Starts

Targets

Receptions

Rec Yards

Rec Y/R

Rec TDs

R/G

Rec Y/G

Fumbles

Awards

Hockenson

12

12

84

61

583

9.6

4

5.1

48.6

–

–

Kmet

10

9

29

17

195

11.5

1

1.7

19.5

–

–

Kmet – Projected

16

14

46

27

312

11.5

1.6

1.7

19.5

–

–

Colston Loveland

Comp: 2023 Sam LaPorta

Benchmark Statistics:

Games

Starts

Targets

Receptions

Rec Yards

Rec Y/R

Rec TDs

R/G

Rec Y/G

Fumbles

Awards

LaPorta

17

14

120

86

889

10.3

10

5.1

52.3

–

Pro Bowl

Loveland

10

8

38

28

378

13.5

3

2.8

37.8

–

–

Loveland – Projected

16

12.8

60.8

45

604.8

13.5

4.8

2.8

37.8

–

–

Wide Receivers

Before I touch on the biggest bright spot shining from the WR group, let me share a quick overview on how the four players we’ve been following all performed. The targets broke down like this: Odunze – 9, Moore – 7, Burden – 5, and Zaccheaus – 1. Rome was only able to bring in three receptions on the day, but is still clearly Williams’ go-to receiver. Continuing our youth movement of rookies on offense (and that’s without even mentioning Ozzy Trapilo), Burden has potentially settled into a WR3 role ahead of OZ. DJ Moore though, found his way into the endzone for two scores in a “get right” performance following a 1-for-7 statline over the previous two games. I previously wrote that Moore’s disappointing season would be cause for concern if the Bears weren’t winning, but you have to think a game like this against a decent level of competition is a nice refresher for him as the team enters a key stretch with playoff implications at stake.

DJ Moore

Comp: 2024 Amon-Ra St. Brown

Benchmark Statistics:

Games

Starts

Targets

Receptions

Rec Yards

Rec Y/R

Rec TDs

R/G

Rec Y/G

Fumbles

Awards

St. Brown

17

17

141

115

1263

11

12

6.8

74.3

1

Pro Bowl, All-Pro

Moore

11

11

58

36

485

13.5

3

3.3

44.1

1

–

Moore – Projected

17

17

90

55.6

750

13.5

4.6

3.3

44.1

1.5

–

Rome Odunze

Comp: 2024 Jameson Williams

Benchmark Statistics:

Games

Starts

Targets

Receptions

Rec Yards

Rec Y/R

Rec TDs

R/G

Rec Y/G

Fumbles

Awards

Williams

15

11

91

58

1001

17.3

7

3.9

66.7

–

–

Odunze

11

11

84

42

653

15.5

6

3.8

59.4

–

–

Odunze (Projected)

17

17

129.8

64.9

1009.2

15.5

9.3

3.8

59.4

–

–

Olamide Zaccheaus

Comp: 2023 Josh Reynolds

Benchmark Statistics:

Games

Starts

Targets

Receptions

Rec Yards

Rec Y/R

Rec TDs

R/G

Rec Y/G

Fumbles

Awards

Reynolds

17

13

64

40

608

15.2

10

2.4

35.8

1

–

Zaccheaus

11

3

51

33

254

7.7

1

3.0

23.1

–

–

Zaccheaus – Projected

17

4.6

79

51.0

393

7.7

1.5

3.0

23.1

–

–

Luther Burden III

Comp: 2023 Jameson Williams

Benchmark Statistics:

Games

Starts

Targets

Receptions

Rec Yards

Rec Y/R

Rec TDs

R/G

Rec Y/G

Fumbles

Awards

Williams

12

10

42

24

354

14.8

2

2

29.5

1

–

Burden

10

1

28

22

295

13.4

1

2.2

29.5

–

–

Burden – Projected

16

1.6

45

35.2

472

13.4

1.6

2.2

29.5

–

–

With a short week ahead, the Bears offense will turn their attention toward someone Chicago is very familiar with: Vic Fangio, as they prepare to face the once-allied Philadelphia Eagles (IFYKYK) on Black Friday. This may be the first true “measuring stick” game that this team has had since the start of the year and it’ll be interesting to see how productive they can be against a proven contender.